Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy index stocks) think they’re horribly over valued and will tank once floating.
Get your popcorn ready.
Most of S&P 500 have shares in these anyway e.g. Microsoft and OpenAI. Not really making THAT much of a difference.
These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.
To make matters worse all the banks, insurers and investment firms in that S&P list are likely in there somewhere too.
I'm sure I'm missing a whole lot more.
It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
What are you basing this on?
What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling?
Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.
The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P.
And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.
I like strawberries. And car washing. I hope they stay unaffected by Claude's whims.
In one example I know, a boring company that isn't a pure software company, the Github Copilot pricing change will make it around 15x as expensive as before. It's far from ideal when you cannot rely on pricing to stay somewhat stable.
What is expensive is model development and training, but again, that's nothing inherent to technology. It's just that Anthropic and other western vendors made a business decision to use cheap investors money to brute force a new model development and market grab instead of investing in cost optimizations for model training and inference like Chinese model developers and providers.
Why would they?
They need to pay for the increasing costs and the high demand for running Claude and soon it will be reflected in their earnings releases. So every token cost counts and the subsidization era of tokens will eventually end.
Forgeties79•29m ago
vincent_s•23m ago
Forgeties79•20m ago
As for subscription/token costs, even with increases they’re not even remotely covering costs. If people actually paid what it cost for these companies to even break even, nobody would be using these tools. They simply aren’t that consistently useful despite all the grand claims. They can be useful and in some areas they are very useful, but nobody is going to spend thousands of dollars a month to have something rewrite their emails regularly. And it’s not like these companies are trying to target one industry. They want to target everyone.
vincent_s•16m ago