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My Humble AI Market Prediction

3•filup•1h ago
In 12 - 18 months we get local models that match the capabilities of 4.6.

The overall capabilities will peak, and we all get highly efficient code forges in a box available in everyone's home. AI the is a generator, an advanced compiler, not a place for runtime. It's best used as a powerful hammer aimed at one thing until the structure is 'built', then we put the hammer away and enjoy the spoils.

These data centers are being built on the assumption that billions of people will constantly query heavy models all day long. There will be a massive overcapacity problem because no one will need them.

The Big players are not even trying to hide this. They will do everything they can to prevent it. This is why we see the safety and regulatory capture of new models. It's the exact turning point of when their entire model collapses.

Comments

bigyabai•1h ago
There are already local models that surpass 4.6 in benchmarks, they're just extremely difficult to run.
filup•1h ago
Specifically, when I can run on a 5-7k computer.
bigyabai•1h ago
Which 5-7k computer? It's entirely feasible to run Minimax 2.5 on a 3k computer.
filup•1h ago
I don't believe 4.6 and minmax 2.5 are on the same level.

Fidelity lowers SpaceX IPO entry requirement from $500k to just $2k

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fidelity-cuts-spacex-ipo-eligibility-183319186....
1•tcp_handshaker•50s ago•0 comments

Show HN: Mercek – A Desktop IDE for AWS ECS

https://www.mercek.dev/
1•utibeumanah•52s ago•0 comments

They don't make them like this anymore

https://www.knut.fyi/blog/2026-06-03/cascadiajs-2026
1•jeffinpdx•1m ago•0 comments

My transcendental experience on Japan's art island guided by its master Lee Ufan

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2026/may/04/infinity-transcendental-japan-naoshima-art-i...
1•PaulHoule•3m ago•0 comments

LHCb experiment observes long-sought new particle with double charm

https://www.nikhef.nl/en/news/lhcb-experiment-observes-long-sought-new-particle-with-double-charm/
1•elashri•7m ago•0 comments

AI will consume as much water in 2030 as 1.3B people

https://english.elpais.com/technology/2026-06-03/ai-will-consume-as-much-water-in-2030-as-13-bill...
2•dnnddidiej•8m ago•0 comments

4.1 magnitude earthquake in Las Vegas

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nn00919749/executive
2•jameslk•11m ago•0 comments

Just a few cigarettes a day can damage your heart for decades

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251122000802.htm
1•bushwart•13m ago•0 comments

Command A+: Making sovereign agentic capabilities available to all

https://cohere.com/blog/command-a-plus
1•offbyone42•13m ago•0 comments

Stats from 30K AI debates: Opus 4.7 is the most influential model

https://opper.ai/ai-roundtable/stats
1•felix089•14m ago•1 comments

Hyperscalers Are Strapped for Cash

https://www.semafor.com/article/06/04/2026/hyperscalers-are-strapped-for-cash
1•cdrnsf•14m ago•0 comments

GitHub Copilot Agent Tasks REST API Now Available for Copilot Pro, Pro+, and Max

https://github.blog/changelog/2026-06-04-agent-tasks-rest-api-now-available-for-copilot-pro-pro-a...
2•theanonymousone•16m ago•0 comments

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky Plans to Start New AI Company

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-plans-191211981.html
1•EvanZhouDev•17m ago•0 comments

Swarms of 'killer mosquitoes' released on innocent Americans

https://www.dailymail.com/sciencetech/article-15874013/us-army-tested-killer-mosquitoes-biologica...
1•Bender•20m ago•0 comments

All the passwords were stored in Active Directory description fields

https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/06/04/all-the-passwords-were-stored-in-active-directory...
2•Bender•21m ago•0 comments

Google AI Instruments (Magenta RealTime 2)

https://magenta.withgoogle.com/mrt2
1•armcat•22m ago•0 comments

How Much AI Should Your Team Use? A Manager's Guide

https://assistedeverything.substack.com/p/ai-bowtie
1•gimili•23m ago•0 comments

Genetically modified hookworms produce and deliver therapeutics

https://medicine.washu.edu/news/genetically-modified-hookworms-produce-and-deliver-therapeutics/
1•gmays•23m ago•0 comments

Software Carbon Intensity (SCI) Specification (2024)

https://sci.greensoftware.foundation/
1•pella•24m ago•0 comments

Apple approves Poke as the first AI agent on its Messages for Business platform

https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/04/apple-approves-poke-as-the-first-ai-agent-on-its-messages-for-b...
1•samyok•25m ago•0 comments

I Must Attempt to Explain the Lego Scandal Rocking YouTube State of Utah

https://www.404media.co/the-lego-bricks-and-minifigs-reckless-benyoutube-scandal-has-broken-conta...
6•Cider9986•26m ago•1 comments

Most men lie about how tall they are

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-lede/the-men-who-lie-about-their-height
14•bookofjoe•26m ago•22 comments

Dig more coal – the PCs are coming (1999)

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/1999/0531/6311070a.html
1•abetusk•26m ago•0 comments

Cannabis 'increases testosterone in young men': Swiss study

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/study-cannabis-use-increases-testosterone-in-young-men/91489005
1•Teever•27m ago•0 comments

My Mind Is Blown

https://weatherhubapp.com/
1•CodeXYZ•28m ago•0 comments

Tech I'm Skeptical of and Why

https://splittinginfinity.substack.com/p/tech-im-skeptical-of-and-why
2•paulpauper•31m ago•0 comments

Law professors prefer AI over peer answers

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/06/law-professors-prefer-ai-over-peer-answ...
1•paulpauper•32m ago•0 comments

Tyler Cowen: Legal Weed Is a Mistake We Had to Make

https://www.thefp.com/p/tyler-cowen-legal-weed-is-a-mistake-we-had-to-make
4•paulpauper•32m ago•0 comments

Show HN: OpenHack – OSS security scanner, 40x cheaper, on par with Opus 4.6

https://github.com/openhackai/openhack
10•ananayarora•33m ago•0 comments

NSA using Anthropic's Mythos for cyber attacks

https://www.ft.com/content/d02d91b3-2636-454e-9442-dc7e69f51815
11•jawiggins•43m ago•0 comments