> "SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis shared with top investors Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Morgan Stanley told investors the rocket maker’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion, the people said."

To achieve this, SpaceX would have to grow at an average annualized rate of about 42% per year for the next 15 years.

While riding the one of the largest periods of CAPEX in history, Nvidia's CAGR over the past 5 years has averaged about 67%. I don't see how SpaceX can accomplish this outside of continued, consistent growth in investment across AI infrastructure and space-related revenue streams.

They will be correct if they move the decimal point

Every day another form of the Onion's Stock Market Invincible - "Buy buy buy! Experts advise" headline.

SpaceX's whole IPO is about them really being an AI play now (with some minor fun side hustles), except their AI strategy is just them buying and leasing a lot of depreciating nVidia hardware. The hardware is getting more expensive, the costs of operating it will increase, and the value of the tokens will drop.

All this in an environment where voters are freakishly united on loathing of new data center buildout.