frontpage.
newsnewestaskshowjobs

Open Source @Github

fp.

Open in hackernews

The iPhone explains 33–52% of fertility decline among women aged 15–44

https://www.nber.org/papers/w35310
61•delichon•1h ago

Comments

throwa356262•25m ago
You mean Instagram?
bel8•25m ago
I'll bite. Maybe it's not the iPhone itself, but social media.

I have seen studies about damages that social media can cause in behaviours. Smartphones are the catalyst to social media consumption as we know. This might be one of them.

Like people contantly on their phones everywhere instead of interacting with other people, for example.

sph•11m ago
Why not go further? It's the Internet as a whole. People socialising online, and online becoming an actual place people spend their entire lives within, free from the hard constraints of the real world, was the natural evolution of the Internet.

Plenty has been written about how any technological innovation leads to massive societal changes no one could foresee, and no one could avoid, but only analyze in retrospect.

FabHK•4m ago
Indeed. When Germany unified, the birth rate in the formerly socialist East dropped by half. Certainly increasing uncertainty played a role, but there was also speculation that there wasn't much to do in the East except read, drink, and procreate, while the West had plenty of diversions.
browningstreet•6m ago
Social media wasn't the thing it is today during the AT&T exclusive period.
trollbridge•5m ago
I don't remember social media really being that significant from 2007-2011.
wmichelin•3m ago
Well, it was for many. MySpace, and then BBM, Facebook, and Twitter were absolutely huge at that time for the folks using them.
functionmouse•25m ago
https://jacobin.com/2026/06/birth-rates-capitalism-socialism...
ch4s3•6m ago
Ahh yes, Russian fertility was famously… lackluster in the Soviet period. So clearly capitalism caused fertility to decline.
catoc•24m ago
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
hodder•23m ago
"Entropy-balanced Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences event studies"

LMAO does the author really take themselves seriously as they type that.

This author has no understanding of statistical methods. This sort of article is the reason why people distrust science. Not because the scientific method is flawed, but rather because nonsense like this get published.

onlyrealcuzzo•22m ago
So... Let me get this straight.

Because people who had iPhones during the AT&T exclusive period has less kids...

They think there is no other possibly explanation besides the iPhone, because they looked at similar groups on different networks and in different areas that didn't yet have coverage for iPhones?

It definitely couldn't have been due to richer people having iPhones and having less kids, or people preferring iPhones who weren't going to have kids anyway??

Why definitely not? And why definitely iPhones or Smart Phones or whatever?

ilija139•15m ago
Not every rich person got an iPhone. The rich people without an iPhone did not had equal amount of less kids. There are two groups, one has an iPhone, the other has not. The assumption is that two groups are big enough to have equal amount of people from any other group that can explain the decline in fertility, i.e. equal amount of rich/poor, educated, etc. They can control for this because they know which people had access to the iphone based on the AT&T network coverage.

At the end of the abstract they state the likely explanation of this seemingly spurious correlation: > National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.

FabHK•12m ago
I suggest you read the abstract, at least. The fact that only AT&T had the iPhone back then resulted in a natural experiment: It was only available in certain regions. You can thus compare regions where it was available and where it wasn't, while controlling for "richer people" or "people preferring iPhones".

As a rule of thumb, if you look at something for 3 minutes and have some obvious questions, the scientists that looked at it for several years of their life in great detail might have had those same obvious questions as well.

virgilp
muizelaar•19m ago
"The fertility drop is concentrated among young populations and largely operates through declines in unintended births (Buckles et al., 2025), suggesting the operative margin may be less about the cost of raising a child and more about whether the relationships and sexual activity that produce children are forming at all."
prabhasp•11m ago
Worth understanding the idea of a natural experiment to understand what's being studied here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_experiment
sizzzzlerz•11m ago
Well, with them constantly taking selfies of themselves they have no time for normal human activities
suncemoje•10m ago
And what does the iPhone have to do with that? What are the hypotheses? Can't tell from the abstract at least
Shalomboy•6m ago
Oh boy, look everybody, NBER thinks they've found the source of the baby recession. Quick, give Paul Krugman another Nobel prize for his work on New Roster Theory!

This is patently ridiculous.

pembrook•1m ago
This garbage "research" being on the front page of HN without getting flagged is a good indication we've reached peak irrational smartphone moral panic.
•
9m ago
That's for the good studies. Let's not pretend that all published studies are honest. Unfortunately it is quite reasonable to be skeptical about extraordinary claims such as this one.
FabHK•7m ago
It is reasonable to be skeptical, absolutely. But responding to a study like this with "haha what about if only rich people got iPhones" or "bro don't you know that correlation does not imply causation" is juvenile.
rayiner•4m ago
[delayed]
hansonkd•6m ago
Not to be pedantic and I agree with what you are saying but:

> As a rule of thumb, if you look at something for 3 minutes and have some obvious questions, the scientists that looked at it for several years of their life in great detail might have had those same obvious questions as well

This does not mean that just because they had those obvious questions that they were properly resolved. Human history has a long track record of people who knew better but chose to ignore. In science there is an incredible pressure to have positive results rather than negative ones (IE nobody would care or know about this study if the title was "we looked and iphone doesn't explain 33-52% of fertility decline"

spwa4•12m ago
Because correlation is not causation. If A and B correlate there's 3 options:

1) A causes B

2) B causes A

3) C causes both B and A (in some order)

4) your correlation figure is bullshit (hence not counted in the 3 options, but certainly with news these days, it must be mentioned)

A famous way to illustrate where this goes wrong is to show a map which libraries that loaned out Harry Potter books, and a map of where poodles got raped. Very high correlation, and obviously an example of the 3rd option.

(obviously both were caused by population density, which leads to both library creation and poodle-related crimes. And probably non-poodle-related crimes)

wavemode•8m ago
The 5th option is random chance.

That often results from p-hacking. In a world of infinite variables, if you look hard enough you are guaranteed to eventually find two completely unrelated variables that correlate with each other over a statistically significant period of time.

raincole•6m ago
> Let me get this straight.

Let me get this straight, I believe one needs to read a paper to get it straight.

But I fully understand your knee-jerk reaction. That was my reaction when I read the title too. However, it seems to be a surprisingly well-thought analysis where all your points are answered (controlled).

If I read it more thoroughly I'll likely find flaws on the statistical methods. But it's not like the authors didn't have common sense.

rayiner•5m ago
[delayed]
munificent•4m ago
Read section 5.

"Table 1 documents that treated counties (those with >90% AT&T 3G coverage) are substantially more urban, White, Republican-leaning, and affluent than control counties. To address this imbalance, we apply the entropy-balancing reweighting of Hainmueller (2012), which solves for the entropy-minimizing set of control-county weights that equalize the treated and reweighted-control means of a specified set of covariates."

jsw97•2m ago
Nobody at this level writes a paper like this, asserting a specific causal relationship, without considering exactly the questions you raised. The authors address your concerns. It's possible they did so poorly. But that is the case you would want to make. I'm tired of reading these low-effort takes on HN.
magicalhippo•1m ago
[delayed]

SWE Marathon

https://www.swe-marathon.org/
1•AlexClickHouse•28s ago•0 comments

Lawmakers Abandon Trump on Warrantless Wiretapping

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-faces-bipartisan-backlash-over-spy-bill-as-deadline-loo...
1•LostMyLogin•1m ago•0 comments

404NOT403 – HTTP forensic scanner and URL change monitor

https://404NOT403.com
1•psiloconvalley•1m ago•0 comments

Show HN: I built a Fujifilm X-mount lens database across 10 brands

https://atlens.app/en/lenses/x/browse
1•sentacraft•3m ago•0 comments

How many consecutive hyphens can you have in a domain name?

https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2026/06/how-many-consecutive-hyphens-can-you-have-in-a-domain-name/
1•Brajeshwar•3m ago•0 comments

SoulsOnly.tff – A font for humans not AI and keyboard firmware to type in it

https://github.com/convictional/souls-only
1•billtarbell•4m ago•1 comments

Show HN: Guestlist – know which sites will let your agent in

https://guestlist.tools
1•felix_myuk•5m ago•0 comments

DStudio – local DeepSeek V4 with a design studio, reachable from your phone

https://github.com/sk8erboi17/DStudio
1•peppve•7m ago•0 comments

Poor Man's Time Machine: Lazy Evaluation in JavaScript and Haskell

https://irfanali.org/blog/repmin
1•sayyadirfanali•7m ago•0 comments

Terrorpop, a Manifesto

https://maddisonstoff.neocities.org/terrorpop
1•speckx•8m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Kronotop – A distributed multi-model database built on FoundationDB

https://github.com/kronotop/kronotop
1•mastabadtomm•10m ago•0 comments

Show HN: A better event emitter that works in browser and server

https://github.com/Lucas127128/better-event
1•lucas127128•13m ago•0 comments

Toxic Ground: Inside Oklahoma's Oil Field Wastewater Crisis

https://www.propublica.org/article/toxic-ground-how-oil-field-pollution-is-threatening-oklahoma
1•speckx•17m ago•0 comments

Multica: Orchestrating business agents like a real leadership team

https://multica.ai/
1•wagnermb•23m ago•0 comments

Demographic and Job Characteristics of the California Security Guard Workforce

https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/demographic-and-job-characteristics-of-the-security-guard-workfo...
1•PaulHoule•24m ago•0 comments

Custom Allocators in Rust

https://nical.github.io/posts/rust-custom-allocators.html
1•tcfhgj•25m ago•0 comments

Pay the Subscription Fee (2026)

https://mikkolaksola.com/pay-the-subscription-fee/
1•fs0c13ty00•26m ago•1 comments

AgentTrust ID – Runtime authorization for AI agents (open-source SDKs)

https://agenttrust.id/blog/agenttrust-id-is-live
1•yaimavaldivia•27m ago•0 comments

EVs are getting more affordable worldwide – except in the U.S.

https://restofworld.org/2026/iea-global-ev-outlook-us-sales-drop/
1•speckx•28m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Background Be Gone – Free App and CLI for Bg Removal on Mac

https://bgbgone.franzai.com
2•franze•28m ago•3 comments

Launch HN: Intuned (YC S22) – Build and run reliable browser automations as code

https://intunedhq.com
26•fkilaiwi•29m ago•5 comments

I wish Deno would keep doing what it does best

https://hackers.pub/@hongminhee/2026/i-wish-deno-would-keep-doing-what-it-does-best
4•dahlia•30m ago•1 comments

Ntfy.sh – Send push notifications to your phone via PUT/POST

https://ntfy.sh/
1•janandonly•30m ago•1 comments

Boy's brain tumor tied to gene therapy

https://www.science.org/content/article/boy-s-brain-tumor-tied-gene-therapy
2•Ralfp•30m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Visualizing sound waves with a custom Pico 2W ultrasonic phased array

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VQDn4HWRM8
1•PaulGilli•33m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: Open-Source Software in Aerospace Imaging?

3•lightedman•34m ago•0 comments

Modern GPU Programming in Rust (2024) [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9ep8ID_7n8
1•apitman•35m ago•0 comments

Solve My Cube: a manual 3D 3x3 cube solver

https://solvemycube.app
1•ghhjklhga•37m ago•0 comments

Composable Data Access with Lenses

https://www.claudiu-ivan.com/writing/data-access-with-lenses/
1•kioku•37m ago•0 comments

The Butlerian Jihad Has Begun

https://syndekit.substack.com/p/the-butlerian-jihad-has-begun
12•speckx•37m ago•10 comments