Total Iran Economic Damage Estimate

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/04/23/total-iran-economic-damage-estimate/

27•littlexsparkee•1h ago

Comments

ashivkum•47m ago

"Exclusive: Iran deal includes $300 billion fund, more than half of which already committed, source says" (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-...)

mortenjorck•38m ago

> The new fund is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations program and will not include any government money or grants, the source said, adding that companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing.

It would be interesting to see more detail on how this vehicle is structured and what sectors the commitments are in.

edaemon•31m ago

It's kind of a nonsensical explanation. As you quoted, the source says it's "not a reconstruction or reparations program" but they go on to say it will be called the Reconstruction and Development Fund and that the program will "include securing loans, establishing credit lines or directly financing the reconstruction of sites damaged in the war ... and, more broadly, infrastructure affected by the conflict."

thinkcontext•6m ago

I'm confused about this investment vehicle. China, their largest external trading partner, is notably absent from the list. I'm assuming they would be willing to extend Iran credit and Iran would probably prefer to deal with a Chinese company over a US company. Are US companies going to offer lower loan rates than Chinese companies? Or is the US going to use financial controls to only allow Iran to conduct international business through approved banks?

dofm•41m ago

It must be lower than $300bn, because that is the size of the redevelopment fund in the MoU. My reasoning:

- Trump is desperate to get out of this war, so Iran can ask for more or less whatever they like, and he will get Vance to agree to it —- notice how Vance is already "the architect of the deal" because it's terrible. So Iran is overestimating.

- He knows they will over-estimate, but doesn't care, since:

1) he (thinks he) is getting his allies in the region to pay and

2) the family will undoubtedly start brand new companies to bid for the work

mothballed•40m ago

I don't think the executive can make those kind of financial decisions without authorization of congress, no?

dofm•37m ago

Oh you're right, that'll definitely stop them /s

ETA: even a very hypothetical landslide Democratic Congress is substantially hands-tied over this deal. It's terrible and wasteful but going back on it is impossible.

Slartie•36m ago

You mean like this executive also couldn't kick off an all-out war and keep it going for months without authorization of congress?

LtWorf•35m ago

The executive cannot start wars either and yet…

oa335•40m ago

"Our most likely estimate is that replacement costs are approximately $91 billion. Military and strategic assets — nuclear facilities, missile and drone production infrastructure, air bases, naval vessels, and air defense systems — make up roughly half that total, at approximately $46 billion, which is equivalent to 4-6 years of Iran’s pre-war defense budget"

How exactly did they arrive at this estimate? I would like to see a building-by-building breakdown, or at least a methodology. Feels very vibe-researched tbh.

dofm•36m ago

You could get to a pretty good figure by assuming the Iranians know they can ask for at least twice as much. Three times as much isn't even pushing it.

mothballed•16m ago

More is probably better for Trump if it's larger because it's more padding through which the deal can be engineered that "such and such" [friend/proxy of Trump] has to be destination company/supplier of reparations materials or other self-dealing benefits.

hokkos•40m ago

So this is why the US will pay $300B for their surrender.

jazzyjackson•8m ago

Get better information, the fund is not from USG

whalesalad•38m ago

Just imagine how chill and wonderful life would be right now if Kamala had been elected.

westernmostcoy•36m ago

It should be noted that this is from the Foundation For The Defense of Democracy, which is a pro-Israeli and anti-Iran lobbying group: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_for_Defense_of_Demo...

They are not neutral actors and this webpage (which is dated to April 23rd) is not neutral either.

warumdarum•15m ago

Iran is a country, persians is the people and the people hated the ayatollahs enough to prefer getting gunned down by these bastards more then living under them. A insane imperialist apocalyptic cult with a country as hostage, murdering its oil industry by strangulation. The gulf states will build a pipeline that circumvent hormus straights and then there will be a 2nd round.

You do not humilate the likes of putin and trump, to life and tell the tale.

mothballed•8m ago

Persians are dominant but the Baloch and Kurd form substantial , often militarily hostile minorities, who would not call themselves Persian and are largely included as within the present-day lines due to decisions related to the British empire.

maykthewessen•34m ago

The total cost of Operation Epic Fury (the US-led conflict with Iran that began on February 28, 2026)

reached approximately $113 billion in direct military spending till April alone

Spending. At parity with destruction.

dofm•30m ago

And all, really, because Trump wanted to make a fuss about the idea of Iran getting access to $1.2bn of their own money under the JCPOA.

Even with inflation and interest it'd be under $5bn now.

margalabargala•23m ago

Don't make the mistake of thinking Trump cares about Iran, and how much money they have, at all.

He cares about being able to put on a good spectacle. Shooting down the JCPOA did that. Going to war with Iran did that.

This might be a geopolitical loss for the US, but that doesn't make it a personal loss for Trump, whose interests are not aligned with those of the US.

mannanj•18m ago

ah. so over $100 billion, about 25% of which safe to assume went to friends and CEOs and executives at companies of friends of people making the big decisions at the top.

Great extrapolation and extraction of value.

pfdietz•21m ago

This was the Suez Crisis for the US. It's all downhill from here.

I'm expected the next Democrat president to cashier a bunch of high rank officers who went along with this. They weren't brave enough to risk their careers to object to illegal orders, so out they go.

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