https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48550465
This comment is just great, starting off with:
“To be honest I almost think the numbers are irrelevant...”
Here’s another gem:
“My takeaway from this is that it's incredibly validating as a business model. Inference is _highly_ profitable...”
Thanks for the laughs. It’s a small compensation for the immense damage you’ve all done to the industry and more importantly the economy (which you will deny until the very end of the cycle like the cowards and frauds that you are).
You know, Ed actually did Scam a favor by leaking those numbers and saving him the embarrassment of filing an S1 (something Wario still hasn’t gotten up the nerve to do yet by the way).
[1] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ed+zitron+bubbl...
[2] https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-cfo-news
> It's clear that both OpenAI and Anthropic are rushing toward a public offering so that their CEOs can cash out, and that their underlying economics are equal parts problematic and worrying.
He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant.
Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors?
2. he has tried over and over again to predict the bubble and peak [1] [2] [3]
3. that OpenAI is filing for an IPO next year is no vindication of Ed's claim when he specifically predicted the opposite (as I showed in the above comment)
4. OpenAI filing for an IPO next year has no bearing on its fundamentals
5. on Datacenters: Anthropic had to lease it from Elon's datacenter because they were too short on capacity and every one was complaining that their limits were too low
[1] Ed on 2024, "threaten to begin a collapse that I’ve been predicting since March" https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/
[2] Ed on 2024, "three quarters to prove itself before the apocalypse comes" https://www.wheresyoured.at/peakai/
[3] Ed on 2024, "things are beginning to collapse" https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/
SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.
Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?
There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility.
> Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors?
If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.
Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference).
Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.
“Rushing toward a public offering so that their CEOs can cash out” is not a prediction of a specific time to IPO, and is supported by OpenAI’s own public statement two months after that was published
> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best.
So... OpenAI has specifically said that they have not decided on the timing and it may be a while. And now we have news that they are waiting till next year.
What do you think is supported by whom? Being more clear and concrete helps the discussion.
Or sooner. It says sooner or later. It only means “later” if you don’t read the “sooner” part. Choosing to read selectively isn’t One Weird Trick To Own A Blogger. “This post about submitting a draft S1 to the SEC is proof that they don’t want to go public” lmao
babelfish•1h ago
typo