But that's why some people give him the time of day. A lot of people prefer to see things in black and white because it's easier on the brain.
Basically, Ed is doing the easy part (pointing out the malinvestment) and not addressing the harder part, which is to predict what comes next in realistic terms. Because the idea that LLMs are just a $30-40 billion/year TAM and there's going to be an epic implosion that leaves only rubble is not the likely outcome.
It's a bit like the first .com boom. There was a huge amount of malinvestment and the bubble popping was painful, but there really was a business for people to buy stuff online, to consume paid content online, etc. The malinvestment got sorted and a couple decades on, immense wealth has been created.
That's the point though, isn't it? How detached from reality must you be to think this is ok?
"Painful" is carrying a lot of weight in that sentence. Painful means people lost their jobs, families broke up, depression, probably suicide, other forms of violence...
There must be a better way to go about these things.
For whom? "Everyone". Maybe we can quote some "Everyone is better off now/the global standard of living has increased bullshit". Have you tried to get a job that pays enough to buy the average house in your area?
He gets things others are missing.
He also misses things others are getting.
I think it’s nice to have a voice criticizing the fundraising aspect of these companies. I do think we’ll see at least one of them blow up. The technology is obviously useful though. Hundreds of thousands of developers have already changed the way they were working for decades. Some of the criticisms that the technology doesn’t work at all go a bit too far.
[1] Actually I think it's right on the overinvestments and ROI claims
Is it a panacea? Of course not, but it is potentially a sustainable business.
Except - open models are barely months away from the same performance and there is no moat, so we will see commodity pricing, and the billions being heaped on the fire currently will probably not see a return, unless someone comes up with a genius trading bot perhaps.
johnathan101•52m ago
claaams•42m ago
cyanydeez•28m ago
jqpabc123•24m ago
No one wants to admit it for the obvious reason that the ruse is very profitable.