I think the question was wrong. The problem is that the important things are wrong and the trivial things are right, which causes confusion.

Wow. “We asked the wrong question and used the wrong tool to get a questionable answer, and then decided to publish it.” I guess the answer is yes?

Repost of https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48791799 (with 63 comments)

Don't put anything with the paywall here.

They're wrong more often than random chance, yes.

The tricky thing about predictions made by public entity or persona is that, the fact that they are making public predictions creates a major influence on the outcome itself. People react to predictions made by them.

there should be some law where publications have to track their brier scores

I'd love to know if "the pink" has the same problem because I used to find the editorial very good. As a non-investor, left leaning voter, it interested me that I found much to agree with in "the financial times" while still finding much to disagree with in "the times" and "the daily telegraph" and "the spectator" -as if money was more neutrally stanced on left-vs-right.

After subscribing for 15 years or so, I noped out after their "walker" cover. The world has enough "both sides" journalism, and I had thought them somewhat immune from that.

Betteridge's law of headlines :)