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Show HN: For 10 World Cups, my model's 2 favorites had the champion every time

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7013338

14•fabioricardo7•1h ago

Comments

dwedge•29m ago

!remindme tomorrow

mcphage•28m ago

How does this paper not even mention the word "overfitting"?

dmurray•22m ago

The abstract does say

> limitations, principally the small number of tournaments available for validation and the risk of in-sample weight selection

But I agree this model is no more valuable than Paul the Octopus.

mcphage•6m ago

That almost makes it worse—like they're vaguely aware that training too heavily on too small a data set makes badly trained models, but are unaware that it has a name and is an actual identified problem.

dwedge•24m ago

A good AI would calculate refereeing decisions and put Argentina at 100% unless England can pull off a miracle against FIFA today.

killingtime74•23m ago

"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time." - Brian Fantana, Anchorman

walthamstow•20m ago

It's worth noting that there has only been 24 world cups

immighelper•20m ago

Probably the human pseudonym of Paul the Octopus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus).

mikelward•19m ago

> the model identifies Argentina (28.0%) and Spain (21.1%) as the leading championship candidates

derdi•19m ago

> Applied prospectively to the in-progress 2026 World Cup from the Round of 32, the model identifies Argentina (28.0%) and Spain (21.1%) as the leading championship candidates.

Seems weird to wait to run the "prospective" simulation until the World Cup is already in progress. Although it seems that the model also needs to use "the actual bracket and group-stage performance". So it's not prospective?

swiftcoder•9m ago

It predicts likely winners based on the round of 32 performance (plus prior data). That's still "prospective" with respect to the finals

derdi•1m ago

Yes. I don't like phrasing this as being prospective for the World Cup as a whole. It's for the knockout stage. (Which the abstract says! But the title doesn't.)

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https://codeberg.org/luddite-academy/sabot-in-the-age-of-ai

1•ColinWright•17s ago•0 comments

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ng_Bj7tVw78

1•tcp_handshaker•2m ago•0 comments

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https://github.com/datopian/portaljs

2•anuveyatsu•6m ago•0 comments

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1•janandonly•7m ago•0 comments

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https://worldreleasenotes.com/countries

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1•_____k•20m ago•0 comments