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What AI did to stackoverflow in a graph

https://data.stackexchange.com/stackoverflow/query/1953768#graph
62•secretslol•1h ago

Comments

hbcdbff•35m ago
Interesting that you can see COVID in the graph
mid-kid•35m ago
Except for covid, it seems the decline was already there.
zh3•32m ago
Indeed, decline appears to accelerate significantly in 2023 so seems likely that's AI helping things along.
dumberquestions•31m ago
The trend might've stalled or even reversed if it weren't for AI, we can't just assume the same end was written in stone.
hilariously•29m ago
Yep, SO was dying before the GPTs - in some ways it was baked in the original SO design - to become the canonical source of information about programming stuff.

Many people talk about the negativity, and they are right, but I think the reason more than anything is the waiting. On SO a good question might get answered in minutes (if it was easy and someone was karma farming) but it could be days or weeks for general purpose stuff; compare that to a few seconds for an LLM its a no brainer.

Ekaros•5m ago
Somehow I feel that whole idea was 50% broken from start. In field changing as fast as programming you simply cannot have canonical source that is done. There are areas which are constant or slow moving. But too many others are in churn. Trying to apply same rules for both is clearly insanity. And this is really the failure of SO...

Maybe if in some cases stuff actually got deprecated and points did actively decay it might have worked... But can't remove power from those who had it for years...

elif•28m ago
The decline you're talking about is roughly 168 to 145, or about 2.2% per year over 5 years.

That's hardly a death sentence. More likely just the gradual adoption of higher level frameworks and languages with less ugly parts.

xyzsparetimexyz•34m ago
Stackoverflow did it to themselves by having incredibly unhelpful users
gyan•28m ago
If that was the case, the graph would never have gotten to the heights it did.

What happened is that as the corpus of useful info increased, the need to pose new Qs decreased. AI much accelerated that decline by making available an 'oracle' trained on that corpus.

iso1631•24m ago
There was also the pattern of "closing as already answered" with an answer from 6 years earlier which wasn't actually answering the question when you dig into it. Certainly in the code stacks.
fluoridation•17m ago
Definitely this. The moderators seemed to have the Lock Question button connected to their dopamine pathways.
Foobar8568•24m ago
It just accelerated the trend, and I am sure that reddit took over for a lot of new users. The different problems with SO has been well documented.

And they killed maybe one of the most side features of it : https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/415293/sunsetting-j...

So yeah metakill your own brands with stupid policies.

inigyou
ReptileMan•32m ago
Slightly accelerated their decline. You have a drop around chatgpt release then the slope returns to its previous pace of decline.
IshKebab•30m ago
AI and ridiculously aggressive moderation. If it had been a more welcoming place it probably would have lasted longer.
nolok•30m ago
SO did that all to themselves when they decided they didn't want a community to form and that only question and answers mattered. The moment something else allowed to have a better way to get your answers, there was no reason to go there, because there was no community.

I still don't understand why anyone would go with that whole "no conversation please"

bluedino•27m ago
There used to also be fun, and somewhat interesting questions to answer or discuss.

It quickly turned into simple questions and "send me the codes"

rib3ye•15m ago
As noted by others, the initializer for the curt communication culture was "don't ask stupid questions, idiot."
embedding-shape•19m ago
SO had great humans contributing to their platform, even as AI began to serve as the new SO for a lot of people.

Instead of going in the same direction of everyone else adding AI all over the place and trying to eliminate the humans, they could have gone the opposite direction and played to their somewhat unique strength of having a bunch of actual humans and providing a place that actually fostered human and authentic interactions. Instead, for some completely unknown reason (money), they chose to commodify their own platform. Smart.

Havoc•14m ago
>"no conversation please"

Good for training data I guess - pure Question and Answer. Maybe they knew the platform would die so decided to optimise for that

khalic•28m ago
Seing a bell curve and singling out a factor that appears only for the 15% of the total time demonstrates some pretty extreme tunnel vision

Edit: https://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb

airstrike•24m ago
This isn't really a bell curve.
khalic•12m ago
check my other response, it's very much a bell curve, statistically speaking

https://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb

mmwako•22m ago
this. Thanks for pointing it out, I fell for "oh it was just AI" at first.
fluoridation•19m ago
It's not really a bell curve. There was obviously a downwards trend from 2016 onwards, but 2023 definitely precipitated the fall to zero. Without AI they might have lasted at least a couple more years, or the activity might have stabilized to a new floor greater than zero.
shevy-java•17m ago
I am not sure. I think SO died way before AI and that graph seems incorrect too.

> Without AI they might have lasted at least a couple more years

Nah, their decline was already readily apparent before AI. You only need to go through old discussions and other people noticing it. AI may have accelerated the decay, but the decline happened already largely prior to AI.

simianwords•28m ago
The company my friend works for has a slack channel for help with code, like an internal stackoverflow. It’s almost inactive now.

I asked to see one of the questions from 2024 - it could have been solved with one LLM search.

We have eliminated a whole genre of peer to peer communication.

dudul•12m ago
I noticed the same thing. Another thing that seems to have disappear: lunch and learn focusing on the tech stack. And I mean specifically about "how to do this in <programming language", not product/company focused.
pknerd•26m ago
Finally, something good done by AI against these modern-day dictators and pharaohs.
inigyou•21m ago
Careful - the LLM companies are also modern day dictators and pharoahs.
Kuinox•25m ago
The stackoverflow moderation is the reason I do not post on it. You have middle party with no competence on the technology trying to do useless moderation.

Instead I directly go on the project github page and ask the question directly to the mainteners.

Someone1234•25m ago
ChatGPT was released in Nov 2022, and frankly wasn't very good originally. The SO decline started occurring almost two years ahead of that, and was already on a sharp decline before ChatGPT shipped, and certainly before ChatGPT actually became good.

This is revisionist history. People told SO that they were leaving for YEARS because of how incredibly toxic it had become. It was already giving outdated answers before ChatGPT shipped, because new questions/potentially updated answers were [Closed] [Dupe] immediately.

Their answer was essentially "We aren't a Q&A site, we're trying to be a knowledge base! So closing all questions on a Q&A-stylized site, and extremely abrasive moderation, is working as intended."

They entirely did this to themselves. The community was toxic, their policies were toxic, and they didn't listen when warned as such repeatedly - just doubled down.

inigyou•22m ago
Two years before ChatGPT is shortly after Joel and Jeff sold Stack Overflow to private equity.

The Monica affair was one of the first symptoms.

lynndotpy•18m ago
The graph is not presenting a narrative, did you mean to reply to someone else who is presenting the "revisionist history"?

In 2023, Stack Overflow had already started making unpopular pro-AI moderation decisions, and in 2024, they started mass banning everyone who deleted their questions and answers in protest. I don't think it's wholly incorrect to say "AI killed Stack Overflow" when the death blow came from crazy pro-AI decisions from the admin.

lynndotpy•24m ago
Any social organization needs to carefully consider their inclusion-exclusion curve with intentionality.

I think a lot of people might balk at the word "inclusivity" today, but StackExchange had ridiculously high barriers to participation, making it inclusive to the long-time users on the site, but exclusive to the newbie participants who found themselves blocked for asking questions. They slowly killed the site in this manner.

The community might have survived this folly, even with AI, because it was still the best place for people with qualms about AI to ask questions... Except until StackOverflow management alienated those users, too, by shoving AI down their throats in every facet of the site.

Even I had internalized the vagaries and neuroses of the SO community but I had heavy reticence to ask questions, knowing I'd have to consider all the ways a bully eager to use their powers might misunderstand me. I can't imagine asking a question there without having had lurked for longer than a typical Bachelor's + Masters program.

Peak at 207K, minimum at 588. That might be an incomplete date point, so using the next most recent value 1226, StackOverflow has lost 99.41% of its activity.

charcircuit•24m ago
If there is not allowed to be duplicate questions isn't it by design that as the site and industry matures the number of posts go down.
wtfHN26•21m ago
Looks like SO was already dying since 2017.

I think other helpful places like reddit, discord, web forums etc might be what hit SO 2014-15 onwards.

AI seems to have given it a blow of mercy to end the misery.

pydry•11m ago
for a lot of stuff it just made more sense to ask on the github project's issue tracker.
embedding-shape•7m ago
- Open issue on GitHub issues: Maintainer closes issue citing "Bug reports only"

- Open question on SO: Moderators close because it's too specific to a library

- Ask on IRC: Get piled on for not using the right vocabulary and your IP isn't masked

- Ask the LLM: Get hallucinated answer based on old API docs

- Ask technical lead: Get burned for asking basic question and put on PIP

- Ask my mom: She doesn't know enough computer to know the answer, but in explaining the problem to her, I finally figured out what I got wrong

pluc•20m ago
So... nothing that it wasn't already doing to itself? There's no one drop where "AI got into the market", SO had been declining steadily for years. I actually expected this post to be about how SO survived by selling its internal organs to AI.

Now do a graph for the money.

https://www.wired.com/story/google-deal-stackoverflow-ai-gia...

j_maffe•10m ago
> There's no one drop where "AI got into the market"

Sure there is, number of questions halved from 100K in first of November 2022 to 50K exactly one year later.

avaer•20m ago
The collapse into a ghost town is striking.

Not sure I would blame it all on AI though, the incentives of SO only worked while there were worthwhile questions to answer and make you feel smart about. After that well dried up, the only thing left was the stuff AI can do with a prompt; ironically AI got a leg up by scraping SO.

This is similar to the evolution of Wikipedia, except the format of WP allowed it to transform into a feudal dictatorship of nerds who feel like they are deciding what's true, and they can get off on that.

SO did not have that kind of incentive to keep the nerds around.

khalic•17m ago
check the graph and superpose the ai adoption curve, you're right to be skeptical
Rohunyyy•11m ago
I remember a time when people were posting their SO link and karma on their resumes. O how have the times changed.
shevy-java•19m ago
This is IMO wrong. StackOverflow died way before AI - and way before 2020 too. I think it had a peak time of only 3 or 4 years. It was created in 2008, and I would reason it took a few years, say, up to 2011; then it was semi-okish up to about 2015, roughly. Then it declined.

It still has some value today, as sometimes you can find useful information on SO, but its peak days are long over and I don't see how it can manage to come back, with or without AI slop. It would basically require a lot of re-design and some things that never worked, such as the karma system, should be changed. Also moderators - they kill sites. That happened to reddit - I gave up after censor-mods constantly restricted everyone.

simianwords•6m ago
I disagree. From what I see, company specific stackoverflow like mailing lists or slack channels are also dead.

The normal day to day devs just don’t have the need to go to stackoverflow anymore.

One would have to explain both consequences or dismiss it as coincidental.

FWIW I rarely have the need to ask questions at the programming level to anyone anymore. It’s just not the type of thing I bring up or anyone else. We now talk about architecture and company direction.

5701652400•18m ago
same story for blogs
vcryan•17m ago
They had a good run!
Alien1Being•15m ago
The hostile moderators killed stack overflow.
ahmetson•15m ago
When an ecological shoes company pivot to AI, I wonder why StackOverflow executives don't pilot for AI now.
adamtaylor_13•2m ago
There's still a question of what that would do for them. I haven't used SO in years because I haven't needed it in years.

That's primarily due to AI answering my technical questions.

dudul•14m ago
SO's downfall started way before AI. A decade or so ago it was always full of interesting questions, people were giving detailed answers, there was sometimes some debate in the answers, etc

And then it started being stupid questions. People who clearly had barely tried anything and just rushed to SO with a half baked question. Answers were just pointing to another thread that already provided the answer. It definitely started before LLMs. I think it lined up with the aggressive "learn-to-code" push.

Alien1Being•12m ago
Wikipedia seems to be going the same way.
adamtaylor_13•5m ago
AI might've delivered the final blow, but Stack Overflow was in decline LONG before LLMs came on the scene.

I read a great article not long ago outlining the full series of events and changes that led to its downfall. I wish I could find that article, but I've forgotten where it was.

•
23m ago
It's both. Users tolerated the hostile environment to an extent as long as the site was still the best way to get useful information. When LLMs came out, that was no longer the case.
bluedino•27m ago
That increased at the same rate of lazy/stupid users.
khalic•12m ago
https://postimg.cc/n9nZGLmb

Goodness of Fit 0.911, Kurtosis -0.849, Skewness: 0.073

It's very much a bell curve

fluoridation•8m ago
Just because it's approximated by a bell curve doesn't make it a bell curve. There are quite obvious separate phenomena shaping the curve at different times.
khalic•7m ago
> just because it's approximated by a bell curve doesn't make it a bell curve

I'm going to conclude this is bait...

yorwba•8m ago
You mean the fall to a thousand questions per month. Now that the volume is low enough someone has a chance of looking at every single one of them, maybe the StackOverflow community can finally collaborate in peace, safe from the onslaught of questions that could be answered by reading the documentation.
embedding-shape•17m ago
Yeah, I don't understand the HN title. The "downfall" seems to have began in 2018-2020 sometime, what AI was launched and popularized at that point that would have killed SO? LLMs were basically useless until GPT3 which appeared in middle-2020 sometime, after the downfall seemingly already had begun.
j_maffe•4m ago
I'd call it significant that the number of questions halved within one year following the release of ChatGPT, the biggest relative or absolute rate of decrease in the timeseries.
pydry•3m ago
Add it to the list:

- the downfall of junior devs

- bad hiring market

- layoffs in practically every sector

theres a ton of things where AI took credit for a trend that had already started before it started being even halfway capable.

j_maffe•7m ago
You don't just fit a Gaussian distribution to a timeseries dataset. That's not what a Gaussian curve is designed for at all. https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1725:_Linear_Regr...
khalic•3m ago
You are confusing a Probability Density Function (PDF) with a phenomenological curve fit. No one is claiming that time is a random variable drawn from a normal distribution.

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