Aswath Damodaran on the Situational Awareness blow-up.
> That hedge fund, built entirely around a bet that AI would pay off big time and near term, buying companies in the AI orbit and selling short on the businesses (especially software) that AI would disrupt, had been able to raise billions of dollars from well-heeled and presumably sophisticated investors, and had posted eye-popping returns, up almost 450% through late June. Success of that magnitude needs no nitpicking, but it is worth remembering that there is nothing that markets enjoy more than cutting inflated egos and reputations down to size. In this case, the fall from grace was precipitous, and over the course of four weeks, the fund's public equity holdings lost more than two thirds of its value, but was also forced to liquidate, with Citadel buying almost all of its public equity holdings.
> The reads on the swift rise and fall of Leo have been fascinating, a Rorschach test of investing priors. For older investors, the lesson was that you can be blessed with intelligence, but that wisdom required experience, which, at least in their saying, conveniently comes with age. For value investors, many of whom chafed at Leo being hailed as the next Buffett, there was vindication that there will never be another Buffett.
u1hcw9nx•41m ago
Even if AI would pay off big time near term, you still must pay volatility tax.
Coin flip game:
You invest $100. Heads you win 50%, tails you lose 40%. At every round you must bet all you have acquired so far. We play this 200 rounds. Would you take the game?
aanet•59m ago
> That hedge fund, built entirely around a bet that AI would pay off big time and near term, buying companies in the AI orbit and selling short on the businesses (especially software) that AI would disrupt, had been able to raise billions of dollars from well-heeled and presumably sophisticated investors, and had posted eye-popping returns, up almost 450% through late June. Success of that magnitude needs no nitpicking, but it is worth remembering that there is nothing that markets enjoy more than cutting inflated egos and reputations down to size. In this case, the fall from grace was precipitous, and over the course of four weeks, the fund's public equity holdings lost more than two thirds of its value, but was also forced to liquidate, with Citadel buying almost all of its public equity holdings.
> The reads on the swift rise and fall of Leo have been fascinating, a Rorschach test of investing priors. For older investors, the lesson was that you can be blessed with intelligence, but that wisdom required experience, which, at least in their saying, conveniently comes with age. For value investors, many of whom chafed at Leo being hailed as the next Buffett, there was vindication that there will never be another Buffett.
u1hcw9nx•41m ago
Coin flip game:
You invest $100. Heads you win 50%, tails you lose 40%. At every round you must bet all you have acquired so far. We play this 200 rounds. Would you take the game?
(btw. it has positive expected value)
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