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Global bond yields hit 2008 highs, raising stakes for big borrowers

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bond-selloff-drives-us-benchmark-beyond-5-stocks-rattled-2026-09-15/
50•kaycebasques•1h ago

Comments

tananaev•33m ago
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
HappySweeney•28m ago
It isn't the debt levels that are causing the rates to spike, rather the start of the emerging Bretton Woods III era.
glimshe•20m ago
And the incredible thing is that yields are quite low based on historical standards. The risk of lending to most countries at yields that are barely above real inflation is massive.

Let's take the US, where you have to consider lending money to the government for 10 years at 5.009%. This barely covers inflation if you consider real numbers rather than the financial fiction ones that have been published in the last 10-20 years.

In the 90s, an era of relative prosperity when the US was the sole remaining superpower, 5-year treasuries were paying 7-9% with inflation in the 2-4% range!

method_capital•18m ago
Working is an interesting term (which I agree with btw) because place like Japan with debt at 200%+ of gdp, rates rising are going to annihilate spending in other important areas.

Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

lordnacho•15m ago
> Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?

Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this?

Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?

bradleykingz•2m ago
conservatives?
nemomarx•3m ago
Eliminate candidates who promise to lower taxes (slows down debt repayment substantially) and those who promise new or expanded services. Who's left? "I'll tax you a little more and not spend that money" is a tough pitch, even if it would be helpful for the debt.

I think Clinton was the last us president to balance the budget and start reducing the deficit so I guess see what he did.

whatever1•8m ago
There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised.

Promises kept. All is good

andrewmutz•6m ago
Printing money causes inflation and inflation causes increasing interest rates. It is possible to enter a positive-feedback cycle, and has happened to countries before.

I'm not predicting that this will happen, but we do need to take the debt seriously and not assume we will be able to just print money to get rid of it.

epistasis•6m ago
If you loan the person that prints dollars their own dollars back, there's really zero risk of not getting paid back because they can always print dollars and pay you back. The risk is inflation, same as any currency out there.

I take that back there is a risk they decide to burn trust as someone who doesn't honor deals, which is a new risk that didn't really exist at the nation state level a generation ago...

toomuchtodo•5m ago
The debtor inflating the debt away is a soft default, even if not a mechanical "true" default of not making a payment.

Yields will rise and reallocation will occur to hedge against this inflation via debasement risk.

2OEH8eoCRo0•29m ago
"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."

- James Carville

pjc50•19m ago
The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive.

You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

danans•10m ago
> You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC.

It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs.

Apparently the main reason they have started buying crude again is not for internal consumption as much as taking advantage of the massive crack spread in refined petroleum products (like diesel) which they export.

whateveracct•8m ago
Not just reserves, but also all the oil already on ships slowly making its way to its destination. I think I even saw someone predict that around September, the oil issue would get worse due to how slowly those ships move.
trynumber9•3m ago
The largest oil producer in the world has their barrel output up 25% this year. That's their equivalent of printing.
rdm_blackhole•1m ago
France is in a dire situation right now.

10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament.

There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible.

Unemployment could also reach around 9% (15% in real terms if you count the people who have given up and/or been removed from the stats since they ran out of benefits).

Finally gasoline could reach 3 euros/liter (USD $13 per gallon) before the end of the year (already sitting at 2.5 euros/liter in many parts of France right now).

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