- James Carville
You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.
What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC.
It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs.
Apparently the main reason they have started buying crude again is not for internal consumption as much as taking advantage of the massive crack spread in refined petroleum products (like diesel) which they export.
10y OAT are at 4.5% and rising with almost 100bps difference with Germany and no budget for 2027 since there is no majority in the parliament.
There is also a 6% deficit expected and growth has been revised down to 0.4% although during the first 6 months of 2026 there was actually a decrease of 0.2% of GDP in total so finishing the year in recession is totally possible.
Unemployment could also reach around 9% (15% in real terms if you count the people who have given up and/or been removed from the stats since they ran out of benefits).
Finally gasoline could reach 3 euros/liter (USD $13 per gallon) before the end of the year (already sitting at 2.5 euros/liter in many parts of France right now).
tananaev•33m ago
HappySweeney•28m ago
glimshe•20m ago
Let's take the US, where you have to consider lending money to the government for 10 years at 5.009%. This barely covers inflation if you consider real numbers rather than the financial fiction ones that have been published in the last 10-20 years.
In the 90s, an era of relative prosperity when the US was the sole remaining superpower, 5-year treasuries were paying 7-9% with inflation in the 2-4% range!
method_capital•18m ago
Maybe we should vote for people who are financially literate, can think long term, and can "conserve" rather than politicians who promise endlessly?
lordnacho•15m ago
Who could you vote for, in any democracy, that would fit this?
Also, how many voters would have the wherewithal to identify such a person?
bradleykingz•2m ago
nemomarx•3m ago
I think Clinton was the last us president to balance the budget and start reducing the deficit so I guess see what he did.
whatever1•8m ago
Promises kept. All is good
andrewmutz•6m ago
I'm not predicting that this will happen, but we do need to take the debt seriously and not assume we will be able to just print money to get rid of it.
epistasis•6m ago
I take that back there is a risk they decide to burn trust as someone who doesn't honor deals, which is a new risk that didn't really exist at the nation state level a generation ago...
toomuchtodo•5m ago
Yields will rise and reallocation will occur to hedge against this inflation via debasement risk.