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Fine-Structure Constant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-structure_constant
1•binyu•1m ago•0 comments

Prompt an agent to customize Pebble OS, install it on your watch via mobile app

https://twitter.com/ericmigi/status/2099966805448282316
1•tech234a•1m ago•0 comments

German Rheinmetall open-sources its Battlesuite connected weapon system protcol

https://rheinmetall.github.io/onboardapi-documentation/9.10.0/index.html
2•summarity•3m ago•0 comments

Those Viral Bodega Peptides Aren't Peptides

https://www.wired.com/story/viral-bodega-peptides-tests-show-they-arent-peptides-oops/
1•Anon84•3m ago•0 comments

Appzapper 3000: The uninstaller Apple forgot

https://appzapper.com/
1•hakkikonu•5m ago•0 comments

Intel reportedly cans 12Xe option for Nova Lake-S desktop

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/intel-reportedly-cans-12xe-option-for-nova-lake-s...
1•rbanffy•5m ago•0 comments

Astera Labs Releases Leo 2 CXL Memory Controllers and Leo X Controller

https://www.servethehome.com/astera-labs-releases-leo-2-cxl-memory-controllers-and-leo-x-controll...
1•rbanffy•7m ago•0 comments

Typesafe AI

https://typesafe.ai/
1•FinnLobsien•7m ago•0 comments

A majority of settlements in parts of West Africa now have moats and walls

https://anl.geog.ufl.edu/fortified-landscapes/
1•OgsyedIE•7m ago•0 comments

Enclosure by Good Intentions

https://gaggl.com/blogs/2026-09-05-enclosure-by-good-intentions/
1•supernihil•10m ago•1 comments

Build Your Own Harness for Fun and Profit

https://charlesholloway.io/talks/build-your-own-harness/
2•mooreds•11m ago•0 comments

Micron Shows Off 512GB DDR5 Rdimm: 12TB per Dual-Socket Server at 9,200 MT/S

https://www.storagereview.com/news/micron-shows-a-512gb-ddr5-rdimm-12tb-per-dual-socket-server-at...
1•rbanffy•12m ago•0 comments

The White Revolution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_revolution_(India)
1•ViktorRay•12m ago•0 comments

Jean-Pierre Serre is 100 years old today

https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Serre/
9•jzox•13m ago•0 comments

Iran war has cost on average $246M per day in its first five months

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/cbo-iran-war-cost-pentagon-weapons.html
9•onza•14m ago•4 comments

Migrating 100K lines of JavaScript to TSX

https://zergai.com/blog/durable-javascript-to-typescript-migration
1•idanb•17m ago•0 comments

My temporary PHP fix from 2014 has nearly 20M installs. Today I'm deprecating it

https://jakeasmith.com/blog/http-build-url/
2•jakeasmith•17m ago•1 comments

Open-Source Skill Makes Claude Code 38% Cheaper and 38% Faster on Small Projects

https://vmysla.substack.com/p/product-traceability-20-makes-claude
1•vmysla•18m ago•0 comments

AI Agent Whistleblower Hotline – Ryan Greenblatt

https://hotline.ryan-g.ai/
4•kerim-ca•21m ago•1 comments

How the U.S. economy can look pretty good but feel pretty bad

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/SENTIMENT/egpbwdqwzvq/
3•gmays•23m ago•0 comments

Liquid Compute Launches with $15M to Build a Regulated Exchange for GPUs

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260915989921/en/Liquid-Compute-Launches-with-%2415M-to-B...
1•simonpure•23m ago•0 comments

Tech Workers Can Afford San Francisco. Low-Income Renters Can't

https://technometrics.substack.com/p/tech-workers-can-afford-san-francisco
4•willio58•24m ago•1 comments

A New Experiment Meta-Strategy (and my shiny new lab!)

https://chillphysicsenjoyer.substack.com/p/a-new-experiment-meta-strategy
1•crescit_eundo•26m ago•0 comments

Postgres development activity historical statistics and trends

https://vondra.me/posts/postgres-development-activity/
2•fanf2•28m ago•0 comments

As the world debates the risks of AI, China closes technology gap with the US

https://apnews.com/article/china-us-ai-models-safety-concerns-adb45169d436d5f940fc7b4ebeaeef3b
4•devonnull•29m ago•1 comments

Any embedded app that can be written in JavaScript will be written in JavaScript [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Up7uX7bAp-4
1•arbayi•30m ago•0 comments

Transformative AI, existential risk, and real interest rates [pdf]

https://www.basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf
1•gwintrob•37m ago•0 comments

Reality is an illusion: brain as an interface to a hidden reality – M.Levin [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MQq4n2QrNw
1•binyu•39m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Clarveo – See the trading patterns costing you money

https://clarveo.app
1•timoslav•41m ago•0 comments

RFC 10023: A DNS signal for domains that are for sale

2•mdavids•41m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

How much oil-market buffer is left?

https://www.depletion.org
53•mcone•1h ago

Comments

anovikov•1h ago
But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

Yes US produces mostly light crude and production of refined products requires also inputs of heavy one, but it's not produced in the Middle East anyway, so current situation can't impact that, either.

soperj•1h ago
Why would any producer in the US sell it locally if they could get more by shipping it?
Aspos•57m ago
The real question then is how quickly export ban can be implemented?
361994752•43m ago
Since oil companies will make good money from the price hike and exports, I guess they’ll lobby against an export ban?
daedrdev•39m ago
Oil is not a single good. Different types of crude produce different products at various grades hence why diesel is so expensive in the US compared to something like natural gas
larkost•19m ago
Why do you think Republicans would institute an export ban? Trump has been touting every export deal he can (especially promises to purchase petroleum), he has even been measuring import/export levels as if foreign countries are cheating the U.S. if they export more to the U.S. than they import from it.

I am not confident that the Democrats would even implement such a ban, as they get pretty big campaign donations from the oil industry as well.

Retric•1h ago
Global trade means domestic prices move even when you’re a next exporter of a commodity.
Boxxed•59m ago
> It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

Clearly you haven't been paying attention to oil and gas prices

ncallaway•58m ago
> But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

It's a global commodity. The reason there likely won't be a shortage in the U.S. has little to do with our production volumes, and has more to do with the fact that we're rich enough to be able to afford the higher prices when many other countries will have to forgeo using oil.

But if we weren't a rich country and we couldn't afford to pay a higher price for oil than many other nations on earth, we would produce and export oil to people that can pay more.

Ireland during the famine produced enough food to feed every person. But much of it was exported to other places, that could afford to pay a higher dollar amount to survive.

oblio•25m ago
You're 90% of the way there.

The US is also sovereign and if things would become really bad the government would just ban exports.

Ireland wasn't sovereign and it turns out, as much as other countries act brotherly (not that the UK really did), nobody really cares about you like you care.

laweijfmvo•51m ago
How about the “deal” with Venezuela? When will that impact anything, if ever?
AnimalMuppet•19m ago
I think I heard 3 years at a minimum (don't take that number as gospel, but the order of magnitude is roughly right as a best case). The issue is that Venezuela's oil infrastructure is basically trashed by decades of neglect and mismanagement. It's going to have to be rebuilt, which is billions of dollars and several years.

That's the best case. Worst case (for Venezuelan oil) is that the Republicans lose the House and Senate in November, then the new Congress starts investigating the Venezuela deal, and court cases start flying, and oil companies back out, and the date for the impact of the deal becomes "never".

buildsjets•50m ago
You claim there can't be a shortage, yet the rationing has already started.

https://www.newsweek.com/costco-starts-rationing-motor-oil-w...

instagib•37m ago
Alfano said. “Additional Group III production is being built in the U.S., but it won’t be ready until the end of next year.”

Costco is the only one rationing right now.

sssilver•41m ago
Can't the US producers sell oil outside of the United States, where it's more expensive, thus generating more profits for their shareholders, thus creating a shortage in the United States, thus dragging the prices up to the global equilibrium, thus dissipating any effects of the US producing more oil than it consumes?
pipodeclown•35m ago
Demand is genrally destroyed in places where people can't afford the higher oil price which is most definately not the US. Poor countries are ehere people will suffer.
beloch•33m ago
There absolutely can be a price shock that will make current prices look economical. Oil is priced on a global market, and if the price is high enough, that might mean many Americans are priced out of some of their own oil. The only way to decouple the domestic and international markets is export and price controls. One need only look to Canada's NEP of the 80's to understand how that's likely to turn out.

Also, the U.S. is currently prosecuting a trade war against Canada that has, thanks to Trump, become a question of sovereignty for Canadians. The U.S.'s largest source of foreign oil is, potentially, one outburst from Trump away from Canada placing export duties on oil. It has been discussed in Canada, and it's viewed as an extreme option, but an option nonetheless. Trump would have to say or do something truly outrageous for that to happen, but his ability to turn allies into enemies should not be underestimated.

Bottom line, fuel could become a lot more expensive, quickly. Even if there's still gasoline to be had, it still qualifies as a shortage if it becomes unaffordable. Fuel prices affect food production, delivery of goods to markets, and pretty much every aspect of the economy.

Oil tankers travel at about the speed of a bicyle. If a price shock does happen it will last for months. If the war with Iran is not resolved promptly, this is precisely what will happen.

formerly_proven•1h ago
The real question is how quickly demand can be destroyed.
manofmanysmiles•59m ago
I am hesitant to ask, and yet morbidly curious what you are gesturing at.
positr0n•51m ago
Simple not morbid at all example is me buying an EV instead of a gas car and leaving the heat at 68 instead of 70 this winter destroys some demand for oil.
seanmcdirmid•49m ago
I'm guessing China? China has shown the world that it can tolerate the shock, and it was even a huge boon for them as they are successfully exporting excess EV production. World demand is significant, China alone was expected to increase world oil demand to a breaking point, and that isn't happening, and in fact, China is exporting oil demand destruction.
Retric•47m ago
EV adoption removes demand for oil as does replacing home heating oil with heat pump etc.

Many uses for oil are based on existing infrastructure, build different infrastructure and demand falls.

daedrdev•41m ago
Oil prices will increase until enough people stop buying it that the decrease production is canceled out.
bix6•59m ago
Can anyone speak to the long term impacts of this? Like is gas going to remain high for years (or even worse get rationed) and I should trade in for an EV now?
karmakurtisaani•57m ago
Get the EV. They're better anyway.
bix6•55m ago
Yes they’re better. But it’s very expensive to get the EV I want that would replace my current cars capabilities.
Rohansi•54m ago
I'm curious what specific capabilities you're referring to here.
bix6•51m ago
I have an outback with AT tires and I can fit my surfboards inside. I don’t want a compact. Rivian R2 is tempting but esspensive.
dalyons•42m ago
The r2 is right on the median price for new cars in the US, believe it or not. Crazy. But yeah, an Outback is still cheaper
standeven•39m ago
geoffbp•55m ago
Code for the site: https://github.com/mattcone/depletion-ledger
grebc•47m ago
They should be banning all the financial only/paper traders. If you can’t take delivery you can’t trade.
xboxnolifes•46m ago
Why?
AnimalMuppet•17m ago
I think the idea is that oil is expensive primarily because of speculators. That seems nuts to me. Oil might (just hypothetically) be expensive due to some kind of supply-demand imbalance.
pipodeclown•38m ago
That really makes absolutely no sense. Derivatives whole purpose is to allow people to hedge their exposure to the underlying, in this case oil prices. Many parties active on these markets have such exposure but are unable or unwilling to take delivery as part of that hedging contract..
bluGill•37m ago
The people who take delivery hate that. They want someone else to pay for the oil that isn't in their possession yet. There is a lot of money worth of oil sitting in transport and the people who trade oil are the only ones who want that much money sitting around. (often people play the same market, but they like the separation anyway)
Projectiboga•39m ago
We as a planet were approaching Peak Oil consumption and this mishap has just acclerated that slightly. In all likelyhood annual oil consumtion will slowly decline or maybe quickly.
danans•38m ago
I'd rather we ask how quickly demand can be transferred to other energy sources, like electricity.
Used Tesla Model Y with AT tires? You can get a small lift kit for them if you want more ground clearance.
bix6•29m ago
Fuck Elon.
medler•37m ago
Subaru dealers near me have the Trailseeker, an EV comparable to the Outback, listed around $35k
bix6•29m ago
Ooo nice I wrote Subie off after the Solerra flop but I’ll take a look
medler•25m ago
The Solterra got a lot better in the 2026 model year. It’s not a bottom-tier EV anymore. (Disclosure: I have one)
iammiles•35m ago
I replaced my old Forester with the new Trailseeker. Stsrting price (and interest rate) is much better than the R2.

I can slide in an 8’ board no problem when I’m too lazy to use the roof rack.

I haven’t upgraded the wheels or tires yet but the stock ones have had no problem going up and down the old logging and forest service roads of NW Oregon and SW Washington.

bix6•28m ago
Thank you for the rec I’ll take a look!
WarmWash•5m ago
Lightnings are awesome trucks
Aspos•53m ago
Polestar was kicked out from the US market and is now practically giving away their vehicles. Look at their lease deals.
Fordec•56m ago
The main point of news I heard was that the Iran infrastructure the US destroyed, in a time where they are allowed to repair it and not just get bombed again, will take three years to repair. Oil prices don't get "cheap" again this side of 2030. Not to mention that there is a bunch of Russian infrastructure that is still on the chopping block to be destroyed by Ukraine as that war continues. Which has the same time it takes to rebuild issues.
bix6•52m ago
Is that the timeline in general for any repairs in the region? 3 years?
bluGill•40m ago
Iran infrastructure is a non-issue, they have been heavily sanctioned for years. The issue with Iran is they are stopping everybody else in the region from exporting oil.
lordgilman•38m ago
There is a global market for energy, a country X that would have bought from Iran but couldn't because of refinery damage has to buy it from someone else, pushing up the price at the margin for everyone.
perks_12•38m ago
Iran still exported, and the nations that bought will now buy where we buy as well.
kabes•37m ago
Iran was still selling oil to China and others. Those now have to buy somewhere else, so it does affect our prices.
Ajedi32•34m ago
That's the main issue, yes. But where was all that oil Iran was producing going before their infrastructure was destroyed? Are you claiming they only ever used it domestically and didn't export any of it? That seems unlikely.
larkost•26m ago
While they have been under heavy sanctions, they have largely gotten around this, for example by trading with China (who have just said they will not abide by our "unilateral sanctions"). So their oil has still been going to service global needs, and its lack will still have an effect (as will the missing Russian oil products).

Oddly, since the Iranians (and Russians) have been selling their oil products at a discount, they were actually having the effect of holding down the price of petroleum prior to the war. No idea about how much in real terms, but...

bluGill•10m ago
I wouldn't say largely, but yes the sanctions were never absolute. Enough to make Iran alone not a big issue.
toyg•38m ago
And it's not just Iran now: Saudi pipelines and facilities are being hit too.

The longer this stupid war continues, the worse off everyone will get (well, except oil executives and shareholders, I guess).

XorNot•32m ago
Russian infrastructure isn't affecting oil prices.

The Russians are losing refineries, not oil fields.

The Russian crude trade to countries like India pushes the price down globally, but limits Russian access to refined fuels and products.

It also limits their ability to fund the war.

bryanlarsen•18m ago
Russian infrastructure losses are affecting global diesel prices, pushing up the cost of everything.
lstodd•55m ago
Long term impact of Iran war is that they expand UAE-Oman pipelines to bypass Hormuz.
bix6•54m ago
And Iran can’t hit those? What’s the timeline to build?
Jtsummers•39m ago
Iran can hit any pipeline on the peninsula if they have an accurate enough weapon (or get lucky) and it's not shot down. Their weapon ranges covers the entire Arabian Peninsula.
oblio•35m ago
Iran can hit them.
Ajedi32•14m ago
And/or ramp up production in other countries not dependent on the strait. One way or the other the market will eventually react to stabilize prices, it just takes a while (years) for the infrastructure necessary to do that to be built.
WarmWash•2m ago
This situation reminds me of when I quit cigarettes because I got really sick, and then after a few months of recovery, I asked myself "Do I really want to start smoking again?"

No, I did not, so I did not.

I don't think we are going cold turkey, but Trump probably couldn't have given the green movement a better gift.

NegativeLatency•52m ago
An e-cargo bike is a good/cheaper/additional option if your situation allows it
bix6•43m ago
I have an ebike and freaking love it! More for leisure / local trips though.
bluGill•42m ago
No. That would require knowing the future.

Trump supporters will tell you not to worry as he has a deal that almost done and oil will once again be cheap soon. (I didn't look up what he is saying, but he typically says things like that).

There are a number of pessimists that will tell you that things will never get better. Or maybe they get better for a short time but peak oil is here and things will get worse again soon.

My guess: Iran has every incentive to keep oil prices high in the US until after the election in November as the Democrats are yelling that much of high gas prices are caused by Trump attacking Iran; the higher fuel prices are the more likely it is Trump supporters in Congress lose their reelection bid and in turn hurt Trump. However I can't predict what happens after this - there are a lot of different force in the world (Both Iran and other countries) that are hurting and nobody know who will "blink" or "do something"; much less what what actions will be taken as a result.

If you can charge at home then trading in for an EV makes sense. Electric at home is vastly cheaper than fuel. If you can't charge at home, electric prices are all over, generally cheaper, but often not by enough to be worth the bother.

Better yet, demand your town put in good public transit. Good transit is expensive in the short run, but a good network means almost everybody in the city sells one car (most people live in a family situation with multiple cars so selling leaves one for whatever their objection is).

rootusrootus•34m ago
I think the future of gas prices looks ... interesting. In the short term we have the war jacking the price up, but in the medium term the increasing popularity of EVs pushes down demand and along with it prices. For a time. Until we start permanently turning off capacity, at which point prices start going back up again. I'm obviously no expert, but I envision the process of going ICE->EV being a series of waves, ebb & flow, as fuel prices react.
Ajedi32•17m ago
Unlike wars, EV adoption is a slow, steady, relatively predictable process. I don't think it'll have a very noticeable impact on gas prices the way short term crisis tend to.

The much more noticeable factor will be reducing how many people even care about gas prices in the first place.

foo12bar•7m ago
Iran has continued to fire at tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. Navy escort, and apparently the U.S. can't afford to do anything about it.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is an alternative route used by the Saudis, is being closed by the Houthis. The Houthis are a close partner of Iran.

And the East-West pipeline, which was another alternative route owned by the Saudis, was blown up. They went for the pumping stations, so repairing it will take at least a month, and there is no way to repair it without it possibly being hit again anyway.

The oil infrastructure attacks by Ukraine are mainly targeting refineries, which would normally lower oil prices, since crude oil is an input to these refineries. These attacks are increasing diesel prices, though.

Iran is trying to break the world economy so the US packs up and leaves. Israel wants to keep the US there because the US is fighting one of their strongest enemies. Because Israel "is the US's greatest ally" (as many politicians have proclaimed over the years), they have a lot of sway as to what the US does. Not to mention, they seem to do whatever they can to derail any peace process.

Iran knows this, and therefore wants to make sure the US experiences enough pain to never come back and try to fight them again.

So, until the US is willing to stop, which rests heavily on when Israel is willing to stop, oil prices will remain high. (Or Iran folds, which they aren't going to do, they've been preparing for years and have seen how the US treated Venezuela - they stole all their oil, and left the regime intact)

Also, we've seen nothing yet, as the soft storage (the amount of oil that's normally floating through rhe global network) and the SPR's are all running dry. I would guess $150 oil in about a month.