We already have a window into the future.

- Anthropic told everyone Mythos was dangerous because it's proficiency with biologics and cyber security

- Anthropic didn't release Mythos like everything else. They released a neutered fable. They didn't get rid of Mythos

- Anthropic opens a lab in SF

There was always a quesiton of "will the labs stop releasing their models and start building around them instead?" Yes - they already have. Anthropic is a biologic and cyber security company, in addition to intelligience.

Personally I wonder if they've been holding back a lot. Opus 5.5 was a good release after a little stagnation. Open AI releases good models and everyone says Anthropic sucks and -- Oh would you look at that - a better model finally and all of a sudden.

I always found it odd that people who are intelligent enough to work in IQ-loaded fields are as easily manipulated by either rhetoric or ideology as anyone else.

growing up I always assumed that everyone would grasp some aspect of game theory intuitively, I still remember the day I found out game theory was a thing - it was like finding out that someone successfully systematized common sense.

most people take the things people say as if they were worth considering. signals without cost are only useful as knowledge of what the signaler wants fools to believe.

Could it be that training is really expensive?

An industry trying to figure out how to cut expenses, reduces the pace of training under the guise of "safety".

Coincidence?

what a sad state of affairs to have insane people running these companies and insane "rationalist" communities making it all about "the end of humanity" when meanwhile in day to day AI use Pete Hegseth uses it to target military targets, shrugging his shoulders when it's a girl's school instead. This actual horrific outcome does not seem to matter not only to either of these communities, who continue to be locked into thinking The Terminator was non-fiction (and have people like Bernie Sanders on board).

We're in a pandora's box situation where it's a liability for US to apply any regulation to frontier development which would set it behind other foreign powers' own pace of development - as the assumption would have to be that they will not apply those same roadblocks to gain an edge. If the end state is true superintelligence, you can't risk having someone else get there first.