2023

there's some omissions in this analysis:

one, delivering intermittent renewable energy requires storage and transmission. and that leads to inefficiencies and loss so there's actually way more upstream generation capacity than end-use meters show

two, cold-climate air-source heat pumps perform extremely poorly during extreme temperatures (which is pretty much a guarantee at this point) which drives peak load during critical moments. which means you need to build more massive firm generation reserves (not the most carbon neutral process)

three, energy demand is not fixed and never has been. expanding electricity to billions experiencing global energy poverty combined with the rebound consumption in the Global North (in the same way that adding one more lane to a highway just leads to more drivers) means we'll need much more generation, magnitudes more. it works for this all-things-equal thought experiment but that's not the reality we're living in, unfortunately