It now has several markets including ICLR 2027 acceptance, Neurips 2026 papers and OpenAI Math results and over 2k registered traders.
It's an experiment and the hope would be to get a better signal of paper quality than the current review system which is under heavy strain due to AI submissions.
Larry Wasserman has an excellent essay that partly inspired this work: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~brian/zach-00/765-2019/764-2016/we...
If you have suggestions for this lmk and go make some trades to help sort out the good from the bad!