(China currently exports ~12M EV units/year, and has domestic capacity to build ~50M EV units/year, total global TAM is ~90M units/year)
ericmay•26m ago
Right but who will they sell the cars to and at what price?
"The number of Chinese EV brands selling at least one product rose to a record 143 at the end of 2025, according to a tally by management consultant AlixPartners.” (Overcapacity subsidized by the CCP)
"Now, in a country with a shrinking population, reliable big-city mass transit and a growing robotaxi industry, sales of passenger cars to regular Chinese families are unlikely to ever again record a sustained surge, analysts said. But cities and their private-sector partners are reluctant to admit that their lofty ambitions won’t be fulfilled, which would result in factory closures and lost jobs.” (Lack of domestic demand means exports are the main path toward growth)
"In recent months, Germany’s once-towering trade surplus with China in automotive products has turned into a deficit. Germany—the country widely credited with inventing the automobile—is embracing Chinese brands, while German automakers are struggling in China.” (EU will begin restricting Chinese auto imports or enacting tariffs)
"In the U.K., BYD is selling its flagship Seal hybrid sedan for the equivalent of around $44,000, more than $10,000 less than a similarly equipped Volkswagen Passat. These vehicles are sold at Chinese price points we cannot match with European cost structures,” said Volkswagen Chief Executive Oliver Blume in an August memo to staff."
"About the only major market where Chinese automakers aren’t causing upheaval is the U.S., where tariffs and restrictions on Chinese vehicle technology have all but locked out the country’s automakers. General Motors and Ford are among the few automakers still pumping out relatively healthy profits.” (America isn't going to let them come in and destroy the US auto industry)
So who will China sell these cars to and will that be enough to satisfy their domestic build capability?
toomuchtodo•1h ago
China growth straining global auto shipping capacity: Liner CEO - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/china-growth-straining-glo... - August 20th, 2026
(China currently exports ~12M EV units/year, and has domestic capacity to build ~50M EV units/year, total global TAM is ~90M units/year)
ericmay•26m ago