US isn't far behind. Borrowing costs will remain elevated based on 10Y and 30Y treasury curves, structural demographics, and never ending inflation from the end of globalization and climate change.
- We find concerning the consensus forecasts for slower inflation in 2027 given recent data on prices. The consensus forecast for PCE inflation in 2027 is 2.5% and the average of the top 10 forecasts is 3.1%. Similarly, the Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections show a median forecast of 2.3% PCE inflation next year and no FOMC participant sees inflation above 2.6% in 2027.
- Thus, even the most pessimistic forecasts don’t envisage inflation running higher than current rates next year. These projections, which for private economists are based on the hope that the impulse from tariffs will fade, and oil prices will decline on the cessation of hostilities, have little support in the data. The PPI report shows scary trends in pipeline manufacturing goods prices with, for example, core processed goods PPI prices surging 24.3% over the last year. This is beginning to look like 2021/22, and if these soaring pipeline prices feed into finished goods prices, this may give Fed policymakers nightmares.
Unlike the headline, which says living standards are set to fall in the UK, I don't think the US is in for an equivalent, given its economic engine, human capital, resilience, creativity.
But I don't care to convince any one of this.
toomuchtodo•29m ago
Good luck with hope based on ideology and historic events that will not repeat in our lifetime. As I tell my kids, "Hope is not a strategy."
Bottom sixty percent of Americans have no federal tax liability because they don't make enough, top 40% doesn't want to pay more taxes, the US carries $40T in treasury debt, and a few trillion more in non bond market liabilities.
> Bottom sixty percent of Americans have no federal tax liability
That's very misleading. That makes it sound like the bottom 60% pay no federal taxes, which is false. They pay federal payroll taxes if they're employed.
The "top 40% doesn't want to pay more taxes" is asserted, not proven.
etc.
> hope
That a misread. Not hope, but descriptive of dynamics that is in contrast with the UK. Not a guarantee for success, but I know if I had to bank on one locale vs. the other which one I'd pick.
andsoitis•36m ago
toomuchtodo•34m ago
Inflation, Inequality and Debt: The Charts Scaring Wall Street - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-31/inflation... | https://archive.today/cqtVs - October 31st, 2026
- We find concerning the consensus forecasts for slower inflation in 2027 given recent data on prices. The consensus forecast for PCE inflation in 2027 is 2.5% and the average of the top 10 forecasts is 3.1%. Similarly, the Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections show a median forecast of 2.3% PCE inflation next year and no FOMC participant sees inflation above 2.6% in 2027.
- Thus, even the most pessimistic forecasts don’t envisage inflation running higher than current rates next year. These projections, which for private economists are based on the hope that the impulse from tariffs will fade, and oil prices will decline on the cessation of hostilities, have little support in the data. The PPI report shows scary trends in pipeline manufacturing goods prices with, for example, core processed goods PPI prices surging 24.3% over the last year. This is beginning to look like 2021/22, and if these soaring pipeline prices feed into finished goods prices, this may give Fed policymakers nightmares.
Housing and Food Now Take Nearly Half of What Americans Spend, the Most in 15 Years - https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/housing-food-... - October 31st, 2026
Bloomberg: Why the US Economy Looks Strong But Feels Bad to Many - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-29/why-the-u... | https://archive.today/mOC5J - October 29th, 2026
Pew Research: Many Americans Are Struggling to Afford Basic Necessities - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50197020 - October 2026
Gallup: A majority of Americans have low-quality jobs - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50195502 - October 2026
Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48827139 - July 2026
andsoitis•29m ago
But I don't care to convince any one of this.
toomuchtodo•29m ago
Bottom sixty percent of Americans have no federal tax liability because they don't make enough, top 40% doesn't want to pay more taxes, the US carries $40T in treasury debt, and a few trillion more in non bond market liabilities.
Special Report: Rising Bond Rates and their Risks - https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/special-report-rising-bond-... - October 29th, 2026
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49713865 (citations)
andsoitis•5m ago
That's very misleading. That makes it sound like the bottom 60% pay no federal taxes, which is false. They pay federal payroll taxes if they're employed.
The "top 40% doesn't want to pay more taxes" is asserted, not proven.
etc.
> hope
That a misread. Not hope, but descriptive of dynamics that is in contrast with the UK. Not a guarantee for success, but I know if I had to bank on one locale vs. the other which one I'd pick.