i think the author and most analysts miss one important bottleneck.
If you look at chip wafer volume from TSMC, they've increased their capacity by a "whopping" 20% since 2020 to 2025. Yes, that's right. All this talk about overcapacity and TSMC has only managed to increase total chip volume by 20% in 5 years.
You'd think that with all this talk of overcapacity, we've increased chip volume shipped by 10x. No. It's just 1.2x.
We're capped ASML and TSMC. No amount of math finesse can get around it. It's bottlenecked at the very top.
Even if Silicon Valley wants 10x number of chips, they can't. This buildout is physically capped by two behemoths.
aurareturn•49m ago
If you look at chip wafer volume from TSMC, they've increased their capacity by a "whopping" 20% since 2020 to 2025. Yes, that's right. All this talk about overcapacity and TSMC has only managed to increase total chip volume by 20% in 5 years.
You'd think that with all this talk of overcapacity, we've increased chip volume shipped by 10x. No. It's just 1.2x.
We're capped ASML and TSMC. No amount of math finesse can get around it. It's bottlenecked at the very top.
Even if Silicon Valley wants 10x number of chips, they can't. This buildout is physically capped by two behemoths.