Some great charts in there that emphasize how absolutely ridiculous SpaceXS(?)ITesla is.

My take on "bubble" activity from HN chatter: https://www.alwaysleaveanote.com/hacker-news/bubble-talk/

Doesn't the title presuppose the outcome?

The article asks the 25 trillion dollar question. ‘What is the near term demand for AI?’ And the answer is nobody knows; especially not these companies. I think the bubble is almost inevitable. Everyone is racing to gain market domination as they see it as winner take all, but it just doesn’t appear to be shaking out that way. There are five very competent US based models alone and then I don’t even know how many open weight models. Unless the industry coalesces around 2-3 models soon I don’t think anyone makes any money on this in the next 10 years+.

> I have a lawyer friend who pays $20 a month for an Anthropic system.

I have a lawyer friend who's seen a dip in clients reaching out. Turns out, they're having Claude draw up contracts.

The AI companies are assuming that there will be demand in the future for their products. That is why they are trying to scale up to meet the demand.

The stages of AI bubble are basically like this:

1. Denial: “No way these companies are worth anything. Zero profits.”

2. Anger: “Idiots! This will end like the 1999 dotcom crash!”

3. Bargaining: “Ok maybe if it goes lower I’ll… I’ll buy!”

4. Depression: “It just keeps going up…”

5. Acceptance: “I missed out, it was so obvious, now I’ll just buy in.”

the only realistic demand is see is similar to why Azure, digitalocean etc are still breahing. There are incompetent companies that cannot live without certain services, so they'll stay dependent. A lot of companies are doing agentic engineering, and the rat race is even stronger there. You need a product that is better than a vibe-coded app, but you aren't competent enough to get there. These companies are going to die out at some point, and what will be left is the better half.

Even that won't make back the 3 trillion that is needed.