The now defunct Cruise automation was in talks to test in NYC beginning in 2018. Cruise was welcomed by the governor but shut down by the Mayor's office, however not before acquiring a small garage and filling it with (maybe) a dozen robocars.
Cruise kept the space open for a few years, presumably they did some mapping but mostly they were just twiddling their thumbs waiting for their permit to go through, and of course that never happened.
Waymo has only been granted a limited testing permit, they still have a fight ahead of them before Robotaxis will be taking passengers in NYC. The Taxi and Limousine comission isn't going to take it lying down.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/gms-cruise-will-test-self-dr...
Otherwise I agree, I think robotaxis would most benefit people living in sprawling car dependant areas with poor transit, where driving is currently the only viable option for getting around.
Will every large city in the globe be filled with self driving cars in 2035, or will the situation be roughly identical to 2025?
Honestly it feels like it could go either way - the last ten years have been such "one step forward, two steps sideways, one half step backwards" on every front - what the technology seems able to deliver on, what companies claim they can/will do, what regulators and the common people make of them, freak accidents that inevitably sway the popular opinion, etc.
Personally I hope the technology matures and becomes ubiquitous in my lifetime (the sooner the better), because I hate driving (a few acquaintances have been in grisly accidents due to drunk drivers coming the other way) and I just want to get in a car at 10p with my backpack in tow, lie down, and wake up at 7a 600 miles away.
There will be many modalities of autonomous vehicles and one of them will be buses. Autonomous vehicles will hopefully be a large boon to public transport or just transport for people in general as it should drive down prices along with making it more accessible as it can run 24/7/365
One could argue the business-as-usual-driving is actually the easy part to automate.
I'd have a lot more faith in our society if we could prioritize automation of our highest density transit rather than catering to the fantasies of the wealthy.
The real concern here is people driving when they shouldn't (drunk, tired, etc.) because they have no other option, putting lives at risk, so to the degree that self-driving cars will curb that I am wholly for the technology.
Regardless, it means a lot more traffic and a generally worse experience for everyone. Cities should tax the hell out of these and put the money towards improving actual public transportation.
Or are you just ideologically against anything that doesn't pack people into tubes in order to "save the planet"?
Curious, are you really making light of "saving the planet"?
Welcome to New York.
A human rideshare driver would never do any of this
Multiple manufacturers seem to be circling on the same advancements and leaps, they all seem to be working with each other to get regulations in place for them to deploy their cars.
I do believe we are about to see AV's version of "making reusable boosters being reused boring" moments with AVs where suddenly multiple companies are doing what others thought impossible years before. Even the much demeaned Tesla FSD is shockingly human-like and reliable on v13.
The issue that Waymo specifically is going to have is scalability. Unlike other brands who have AV, Waymo doesn't have manufacturing capabilities in-house currently nor logistic or a generalizable model. I think Waymo is definitely ahead of the pack but time will tell if the brands who went slower will pass them up due to Waymo not having a financial reason to push to financial viability on any timeline shorter than "after Google runs out of money".
If Waymo's plan is to have to map the entire US to be capable of driving in it, that's going to cost a lot of money and take a lot of time vs having cars that can roll out of the factory and drive straight to their assigned city unassisted.
Those would in many cases be the same company. And yes, the entity responsible for injury would be the car manufacturer, not the driver or riders. Taking on legal liability for the car is part of the 'qualifications' for L3.
The specifics of what part of the system failed can be litigated if defendants (companies) need to be added to the case but in no case will the people inside of a vehicle designated higher than SAE L3 be held at fault for the accident.
For self-driving, that evaluation is almost impossible. Sure it can look good statistically, but for things like brake lines, brake pad material, brake boosters, etc, they are governed by the laws of physics which are more understandable than any self-driving algorithm.
As far as I know, a self-driving Tesla, such as what they are operating in Texas, is almost the same hardware as an off-the-shelf Tesla, whereas each Waymo is a custom built vehicle, with added manufacturing costs (on top of the base vehicle) in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The significance of the Tesla service being comparable to Waymos cannot be overstated IMHO.
I ride in Waymos constantly. They are boring technology to me that I no longer think about. Effectively complete trust in them for the areas they drive in. The driving is so steady and consistent that I forget I'm in an autonomous vehicle. The only thing I want is for them to be able to take me to Oakland and to SFO via the freeway, but am comfortable waiting for those to become unlocked on the assumption that my trust level will remain consistent as their unlocked region footprint grows.
I don't trust Tesla's self-driving as far as I can throw it. I'm not a huge Elon hater or anything like that. https://teslafsdtracker.com/ gives me pause! 1 in 10 rides has a critical disengagement and it hasn't improved in three years. I will concede that the distance travelled appears to be improving rapidly, and increasing distance could explain why rides continue to have a critical disengagement, but man I just can't overstate how uncomfortable that makes me feel. I want nothing to do with sitting in the back seat of an autonomous vehicle that needs someone to take over every 1 in 10 drives.
Also, as a consumer, the notion of wanting to choose a system that relies purely on vision over one that is a combination of lidar and vision is just nonsense. Just because humans drive with vision + thinking doesn't make me feel like that is the ideal solution. I want systems that use all the tech at the machine's disposal to make me as safe as possible by handling edge cases that a human driver would fail at.
Elon, of course wants to do that much faster. But he was also supposed to be on Mars by now.
In the context of autonomous busses in public transport I didn't see any statements by Verdi, the German union covering this sector, that opposed them in principle.
E.g. in Hamburg:
"Wenn das autonome Fahren dazu führt, dass der ÖPNV ausgebaut und der Takt höher wird, dann ist das ein positives Zeichen in Richtung der von uns geforderten dringend notwendigen Verkehrswende. Wir erwarten aber von den Gesellschaftern unter der Federführung unseres ersten Bürgermeisters Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finanzsenator Dr. Andreas Dressel und Verkehrssenator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, dass die Einführung von autonomen Verkehren unter Gewährung aller Mitbestimmungsrechte des Betriebsrates der Hamburger Hochbahn eingeführt wird – ganz im Sinne von Hamburg als Stadt der guten Arbeit mit Vorbildcharakter."
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If autonomous driving leads to an expansion of public transport and more frequent service, then that is a positive sign toward the urgently needed mobility transition that we are demanding. However, we expect the shareholders, under the leadership of our First Mayor Dr. Peter Tschentscher, Finance Senator Dr. Andreas Dressel, and Transport Senator Dr. Anjes Tjarks, to ensure that the introduction of autonomous transport services is carried out with full respect for the co-determination rights of the works council of Hamburger Hochbahn — fully in line with Hamburg’s role as a city of good work and a model for others.
In San Francisco we just call it “a Waymo”
It seems likely that the 99% number is due to running more hours than a human per day.
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