Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?
Also poor people can get into debt they are still poor. Maybe they can afford a nintendo switch but not afford to raise a family.
Inequality is very visible in terms of what sort of consumption occurs. Gotta look at the qualitatives.
The retired middle class boomers I know are completely outside the business cycle.
While I don't think they have enough to really be considered wealthy, they have no mortgage payment, a social security check, a pension and most have a 401k.
The business cycle will not change their spending one bit.
(1) People wait for when they perceive they'll get the best deals to do their shopping. (2) K-shaped economy (data is already bearing this out btw): Spending from the wealthy is driving consumption figures vs. the bulk of the population (3) Anxiety about rising prices cause people to purchase now vs. later. See for example RAM prices.
Checking the stats online growth is up and on par with previous years creating that record breaking stat. Instore numbers arent out yet but some figures are claiming less foot traffic in stores compared with previous years. So i'd say to early to really call if spending was down(compared with expectations)
Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...
The holiday season on the whole is a much better indicator, not just one single day. And even then, spending needs to be checked against debt incurred.
1. I saw the same headline - the article stated that there were record SEASON sales, not Black Friday sales. The headline did not match the content of the article. 2. Record revenue, not necessarily record units sold. To be expected with inflation. 3. Savvy online shoppers may be bundling purchases to reduce shipping costs. Waiting for a seasonal sale to buy holiday gifts as well as detergent, snacks and underwear may be quite prudent.
Finally, increased sales revenue does not necessarily equate to more jobs. It can, but by no means does it have to.
I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices rose by quite a bit between the start of the year and now. So we need to see if this increase is sales match up to inflation (which, unfortunately, would be more difficult to rely on knowing that that metric has become politicized.)
This year was prescription glasses.
Source: Betteridge's law of headlines
Offshoring is by far the biggest culprit. Plenty of Jr/Mid roles hiring…but not US based.
I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a week and let me tell you, they have a major systems problem that is making their operations look like a joke
>I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a week
And yet you still go to Home Depot, so from their perspective it's not an existential issue. Probably the biggest thing companies have learned recently is that they don't need 99.99% uptime, people will accept degraded performance because "that's just how technology works".
OgsyedIE•1h ago
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Also, shocking to see no mention of the investment thesis, let alone critique of it.
AnimalMuppet•32m ago
What do you mean by the "investment thesis"? Would you clarify?
OgsyedIE•9m ago
Think of the promise of AGI as a promise of billions of tireless immigrants with PhDs who outcompete the other ethnicities in the labor market. It's the same reason people stopped investing in Detroit-based things years ahead of the industry pullout.
bequanna•4m ago
That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?
juujian•32m ago