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Countdown until the AI bubble bursts

https://pop-the-bubble.xyz/
67•tapematch•2h ago

Comments

Loughla•51m ago
I think you should have all the different models complete the same task and get different clocks going for each. That might be funnier.
CivBase•46m ago
It'd be kinda funny if they asked each AI every day and updated the clocks/rationale accordingly.
amryl•43m ago
They do (with only one AI though): "How does it work? Every night, a script runs that asks Gemini to search the web for the latest AI news—both hype and criticism. Based on the sentiment and economic indicators it finds, it updates the predicted "burst date" and explains its reasoning."
bravetraveler•51m ago
> The Predicted Date: October 3, 2026

> — Analysis generated by Gemini 2.5 Flash on December 4, 2025 ...

Also:

> Registry Expiry Date: 2026-10-01T23:59:59.0Z

This domain will be the pop heard around the world

exegete•47m ago
Well the date is going to change everyday based on what Gemini says
bravetraveler•46m ago
I see, there's hope yet. I didn't read that close, gotta skim with all this ~value~ generation

I mean, I got the gist it might change... but I assumed this is a flat page, made once. For the lulz. Entirely missed the relevant FAQ!

edit: I'll actually check this again to see what the robot(s) think, others have good a suggestion: more, compare sentiment beyond Gemini.

bdangubic•44m ago
the date has been changing for years now. one day someone will actually define what bubble we are waiting to burst and then will poke it to burst and many will say “hey, see I was right all along” ;)
gblargg•47m ago
Is there a place to donate for the cause?
purplelemons•35m ago
NYSE. Pump those market caps up.
hmartin•46m ago
Would be awesome to have logs of the daily estimates and their reasons
rickcarlino•43m ago
How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet? At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?
VectorLock•30m ago
When investors start pulling Waring Hudsuckers.
purplelemons•25m ago
> How can the predictive market bros quantifiably turn this into a bet?

Put options trading.[^1]

> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?

Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully.

[^1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

int32_64•41m ago
I wonder if the max pain AI bubble burst is just the mag7 being tightly rangebound for years, down in real terms but buoyed by the global money printers switching on again to repair the clearly distressed global economy. This outcome would disappoint the AI haters and the true believers alike.
jijji•37m ago
you can write all you want about an AI bubble but when I can do from the command line with agentic AI changes to a large code base that would take over a year and get it done in a week or two, it's simply a dramatic evolution of software engineering by one competent software engineer
chroma205•30m ago
> you can write all you want about an AI bubble

Bubble =/= useless

Bubble means over-hyped

exegete•36m ago
As of today ChatGPT is saying September 15, 2026 +/- 3 months
gkoberger•33m ago
I guess I wonder what people think the AI bubble is.

Are you worried about the high valuations of the big AI companies (OpenAI, Nvidia, etc)? Then sure, that will correct over time. There will likely be 1-2 big winners.

But if you're talking about AI in general... right now is the least amount of money companies will be spending on AI ever. It will only go up. This isn't crypto.

Veedrac•29m ago
> This isn't crypto.

Bitcoin is at $92k.

gkoberger•22m ago
Sure, but crypto companies aren’t as in vogue anymore.

AI companies will someday just be called companies, much like how tech companies are just companies.

vlovich123•13m ago
But if the value add of AI fails to materialize like the current valuations are based on (as in the % of GDP impacted), then you’re going to see investors losing money on the investments.
layer8•28m ago
Please add a graph of the prediction history.
deathanatos•25m ago
Well this is quite the cute little paradox.

Bubble pops? The AI was right! AI works! Doubters were wrong, everybody should be throwing their money back in! That wasn't a bubble that was Future Earnings.

Bubble doesn't pop? AI fails and it's a scam & a bubble! Why are we all still pouring money into this bubble? Someone in the comments, in response, moves the goalposts on AI.

Heavy dose of /s, of course.

layer8•21m ago
It just needs to pop at a different time than predicted.
seizethecheese•6m ago
Why sarcasm? It is an interesting paradox.

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397•delichon•5h ago•619 comments

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203•toss1•2h ago•158 comments

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112•AwkwardPanda•8h ago•96 comments

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390•todsacerdoti•12h ago•191 comments

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350•rgun•17h ago•142 comments