That’s basically what they said in 2003 and look how long America was in Iraq for. Did everyone already forget what happened just two decades ago?
OutOfHere•1h ago
Yes, the risk is: Weeks long now = decade long in a decade.
The key determining factor could be whether any American boots land on the ground or not. Once they do land, there is then no end to the op. I am assuming a simple Venezuelan-style kidnapping of their leader won't work here, or it would have happened already. Fwiw, Iran of course is substantially larger than both Afghanistan and Iraq, so the risk of a prolonged operation is longer.
petre•1h ago
Yeah, the Russians also though they'd occupy Ukraine and change the regime in Kyiv a matter of weeks. Meanwhile the war has been going on for 4 years.
The US totally botched Afghanistan, Libya and possibly Syria as well. I gueass another civil war is somehow better than rabid religious leaders who hate the US and Israel armed with nukes.
cjbenedikt•5m ago
The US could have learned from Russia's Afghanistan debacle but obviously didn't. Always a problem with "this time it's different".
eastbound•1h ago
I’m exponentially surprised every day they don’t attack. That means they’re putting a little thought into this. I wasn’t reading the news in 2003, but they seemed so hurried.
Ironically, this time, time would have been of the essence to save the protesters who died. Maybe the US noticed all their potential supporters were rapted and killed.
icegreentea2•8m ago
In 2003, Bush first tried gathering support for invasion in Sept 2002 at the UN. Congress granted authority to use for in October. Colin Powell tried one more major push for UN support in Jan. The invasion was in March 2023.
That was the public facing attempts to gather support. Internally within the administration, they started working on invasion plans within a few months of 9/11. These plans continued to iterate up to being more or less locked in and approved (by Bush) in Jan 2023.
jleyank•46m ago
I fear boots on ground means soldiers or others returning in boxes. Are people ready and willing to bet their determination against Iran’s?
smitty1e•7m ago
In particular, anything more extensive than wrapping Maduro is going to be politically infeasible for Trump with the mid-terms looming.
ok_dad•1h ago
OutOfHere•1h ago
The key determining factor could be whether any American boots land on the ground or not. Once they do land, there is then no end to the op. I am assuming a simple Venezuelan-style kidnapping of their leader won't work here, or it would have happened already. Fwiw, Iran of course is substantially larger than both Afghanistan and Iraq, so the risk of a prolonged operation is longer.
petre•1h ago
The US totally botched Afghanistan, Libya and possibly Syria as well. I gueass another civil war is somehow better than rabid religious leaders who hate the US and Israel armed with nukes.
cjbenedikt•5m ago
eastbound•1h ago
Ironically, this time, time would have been of the essence to save the protesters who died. Maybe the US noticed all their potential supporters were rapted and killed.
icegreentea2•8m ago
That was the public facing attempts to gather support. Internally within the administration, they started working on invasion plans within a few months of 9/11. These plans continued to iterate up to being more or less locked in and approved (by Bush) in Jan 2023.