Worth noting that at the time of invasion of Iraq they had about 25 million people per gemeni. They now have about 46 mil people per wikipedia. All else equal, we are comparing 25 mil to 93 mil and not half of 93 mil to 93 mil.
I also used this as an opportunity to reference the now archived[0] CIA Factbook[1] which does put the 2003 Iraq population at 25 million.
On the other hand isn't this how the russian revolution happened? An economic crisis due to a prolonged war leading to a revolution? While i wouldn't bet money on it, it seems at least possible that something similar could happen to Iran.
It happened because Russian empire (and German empire) lacked state security apparatus adequate to the threat. It was fixed by most authoritarian states after that, so e.g. Soviet Union survived for 70 years despite many popular uprisings, which happened almost the whole time of its existence. It went down only when elites in Moscow destroyed it from within.
WMD 2.0 The Electric Boogaloo.
I've been hearing that line, from the same person for thirty years:
https://www.news18.com/world/weeks-away-by-next-spring-video...
Israel said the same thing about Pakistan many decades ago, and they were the only country trying to stop it from happening, but they were blocked from doing so.
That's the only reason we don't hear "Pakistan has been weeks away from a nuke for 30 years" in these annoyingly ignorant internet discussions.
I find it so puzzling that a country, which has violated the NPT multiple times, can enrich uranium to 60%, according to the IAEA, inside bunkers deep within mountains, and people with a straight face can say that they're not building a nuclear weapon. I think less of these people's basic intellectual integrity. Just go ahead and say that the theocrats in Iran should be allowed to have a nuke, be honest for once.
There are many countries that have used nuclear weapons.
If you're talking about the USofA they didn't try that hard at preventing Iran from enriching - they tore up a perfectly good and well functioning monitoring agreement at the start of Trump's first term.
Now the US is not dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, but Japan, China and other countries are. So controlling the region will mean a lever of power over those regions.
Region instability had ben regularly threatening freedom of navigation in the last five years
And USA may not consider the individual country strategic, but cares deeply about freedom of navigation, because the single market is basically the pillar for their hegemony.
Sarah Paine lectures give overall better lenses to look at this engagement.
I assume/hope this was meant to say "the people in these countries are not [un]important"? (or just "are important")
As an entirely secular person, I believe every innocent human life is important.
They (rich and well connected) did, but they won't have to suffer the consequences, everyone else will. The Pedo of the United States is now a billionaire that will walk away in 4 years shrugging his shoulders laughing all the way to the bank with them.
Not one person that could stop it, did stop it. Legislature is sitting on their thumbs pretending not to work for Israel and selling us out to big tech and defense spending.
All the Baby Boomers are in the south enjoying the sunshine and shrugging their shoulders.
> for the United States this war was an unwise gamble on extremely long odds; the gamble (that the regime would collapse swiftly) has already failed
Right off the bat this guy is wrong. Nobody in their right mind would bet that the regime would collapse swiftly. The US knew what Iran's military C&C looks like, and what their internal oppressive police forces look like.
The US and Israel have been pummeling them continuously, and they're not done. So much so that the one opposition leader all the Iranians in exile are talking about urged Iranians to stay home and not protest - yet.
The continuing slow collapse of the United States is extremely relevant to all things technology and business. The source of all our funding may be cut off. It's important to monitor what's going on there.
That "nobody in their right mind" would bet this does not, in fact, contradict his assertion that somebody did!
Time Traveler, rushing to a computer after seeing a Skyrim for Sale poster and seeing this post: "WHAT YEAR IS IT!!!??"
I suppose it is some right given to you from above, now where have I seen this before..
Judging by your comment history it seems to be the majority of what you discuss. Maybe you're not the best judge of what HN finds interesting or salient.
In the fantasy imagination of some people, they really think you can take out some military targets of another country and then the oppressed masses will magically revolt, as they completely ignore the failed revolution just a month prior. Surround yourself with enough of these people while excluding and firing those who don't and this is what you get.
"It certainly did not help that the United States had stood idle while the regime slaughtered tens of thousands of its opponents, before making the attempt,"
"Now, before we go forward, I want to clarify a few things. First, none of this is a defense of the Iranian regime, which is odious. That said, there are many odious regimes in the world and we do not go to war with all of them. Second, this is a post fundamentally about American strategy or the lack thereof and thus not a post"
My takeaway from the war in Ukraine is: it’s going to get worse and last longer than anyone ever imagined.
This is too complacent for my liking. Every rusty trawler is a viable launch platform for Shahed type drones (operational range ~2500 km per Wikipedia). Nearly every US oil refinery and LNG terminal are on the coast. And then there are floating oil platforms (e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdido_(oil_platform))
The article then says:
>One can never know how well prepared an enemy is for something.
And:
>And if I can reason this out, Iran – which has been planning for this exact thing for forty years certainly can.
I'll leave it here for y'all to ponder.
tobiasdorge•1h ago
lostlogin•1h ago
pocksuppet•31m ago
bigyabai•14m ago