It’s also why SpaceX wants to be included into index funds as soon as possible after they go public. I recall the rules may be revised to support this, meaning everyone who has money saved in those funds will automatically be tied to the fate of SpaceX.
The rest of the economy is dead. Oracle is dead without OpenAI. Remember that unlike the dotcom, none of these companies are public. So when it pops, you’ll see private credit and PE funds implode, which could bring down banks with unhedged exposure. The headlines talk about JP Morgan (which likely has the risk managed), but regional banks got into that nature in the last couple of years in a big way.
Let me put it this way, IF AI is a bubble then I'd like it to go bust asap instead of dragging along and going public and then us discovering BS/creative accounting revenue in S1 filings. by then it would be much worse. Right now VCs and PE firms will absorb it all.
The thing with dot-com was that there was actual public market corruption & euphoria. that caused the bust painful for everybody. RN its bigtech & PE how has heavy cash reserver and margins to bun through. I'd much rather have them take it then average 401k.
Just like now, the financial cup game is insane. Commiting money to a company that plans on doing a thing if they can get another company to do a thing and then that company is leveraging those cumulative possibilities in its own wager. The speculation is out of control.
So yes, AI is a bubble, but this bubble has generated value, it’s not at all like 2008.
You're also ignoring the cost of purchasing and amortizing dedicated hardware in your local model example.
It's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
That's absurd. It's a physical impossibility to bring that much power online that quickly. And the cost to get even close would make AI more expensive than just hiring knowledge workers to do the same tasks.
And it's all predicated on a tower of wobbly or broken assumptions -- chief among them that increasing the size of these models yields better performance.
We're going to look back on this era and wonder why anybody took any of the outrageous claims of tech CEOs seriously.
China begs to differ.
I'm assuming you disagree that larger models are better? Can you expand on what indicates that AI will hit a wall in scaling given the evidence of the last 9 years of scaling transformers (or other models)? Where on the plot does the line go from exponential to flat?
Whether or not you believe we will reach it in a fee years, we are certainly wayy closer today than we were even two years ago.
The possibility of genuine AGI obliterates all the financial or energy related worries, they pale in comparison to the ultimate impact of such a technology.
However, yes, if you believe AGI is not possible or won’t arrive in the coming decade then all the data center buildup seems foolish.
nick49488171•1h ago