- Trump is desperate to get out of this war, so Iran can ask for more or less whatever they like, and he will get Vance to agree to it —- notice how Vance is already "the architect of the deal" because it's terrible. So Iran is overestimating.
- He knows they will over-estimate, but doesn't care, since:
1) he (thinks he) is getting his allies in the region to pay and
2) the family will undoubtedly start brand new companies to bid for the work
ETA: even a very hypothetical landslide Democratic Congress is substantially hands-tied over this deal. It's terrible and wasteful but going back on it is impossible.
How exactly did they arrive at this estimate? I would like to see a building-by-building breakdown, or at least a methodology. Feels very vibe-researched tbh.
They are not neutral actors and this webpage (which is dated to April 23rd) is not neutral either.
You do not humilate the likes of putin and trump, to life and tell the tale.
reached approximately $113 billion in direct military spending till April alone
Spending. At parity with destruction.
Even with inflation and interest it'd be under $5bn now.
He cares about being able to put on a good spectacle. Shooting down the JCPOA did that. Going to war with Iran did that.
This might be a geopolitical loss for the US, but that doesn't make it a personal loss for Trump, whose interests are not aligned with those of the US.
One thing you must understand about Trump is that he is a malignant narcissist: he has an absolutely acute sense for when shame attaches to him personally and he will do anything to deflect it or deny it.
In this case, for example, suddenly Vance is "the architect of the deal".
When he can no longer bear to be associated even to this level he will do something else awful to distract himself from the feelings he is experiencing. (You could argue that this is why the conflict started when it did).
But expect at least some more sabre-rattling about Greenland, more calling Canada the 51st State and Mark Carney "Governor", more dangling a Cuba invasion in front of pathetic Lidl' Marco, etc.
I'm expected the next Democrat president to cashier a bunch of high rank officers who went along with this. They weren't brave enough to risk their careers to object to illegal orders, so out they go.
Great extrapolation and extraction of value.
ashivkum•1h ago
mortenjorck•1h ago
It would be interesting to see more detail on how this vehicle is structured and what sectors the commitments are in.
edaemon•1h ago
thinkcontext•38m ago