Is this right? It would seem that adding another finding "in the same direction" should always increase the statistical significance, even if only slightly if the new evidence is week.
Under what circumstances could additional evidence for X reduce the estimated likelihood of X?
ck2•49m ago
I mean that's how science works, discover something new, rewrite knowledge
not like religion where you make stuff up before you know anything about anything and then force everything new to adapt to the legacy of decisions thousands of years prior
Joker_vD•31m ago
bognition•27m ago
If science operated like religion it would say "We dont know what dark energy is, but you have to accept it or your wrong".
Instead the argument is "Hmm... our current best understanding of the universe is lacking, when we add in these extra variables many of our predictions go from wildly inaccurate to nearly accurate. There must be something going on here we cannot observe, so lets call it "dark"."
Dark energy is "Wow, there's a factor at play here that we dont understand, without it our equations do not predict what we see, with it the equations are very accurate. Additionally we can predict multiple different things with this."
And the most important part, as soon as there is evidence that refutes the Dark Energy/Matter hypothesis scientists will quickly (over a few years, a decade at the most) walk away from it. Versus religious systems take centuries for people to shift their beliefs.
pdonis•19m ago
The dark energy density is already a parameter in the model. The simplest case for such a parameter is that it's just a constant, so in the absence of evidence to the contrary, Occam's Razor led cosmologists to adopt it.
But now we have evidence that suggests that it's not a constant, so we're looking at the next simplest case, a function of time (but still constant everywhere in space at each instant of time). The article describes how the DESI data suggest that it's a slowly decreasing function of time.
What has not happened is people making up models and continuing to insist on them even after the data says otherwise. That's what the GP was saying religion does.
chowells•11m ago
This isn't some slapdash random patching. Everyone involved knows that assuming that the λ in λCDM is a constant is shaky. It could be a function of time, or even location in some way. But it's simplest if it's a constant. So you start by modeling the universe as if it is. Then you determine what sorts of observations would support or contradict that, and you start making them. When you get results, you start examining what version of the model best explains those observations. And someone somewhere goes off to try find a better model than any version of λCDM. If they succeed, their model will eventually supplant it. This is how science progresses, even if the experiments are less under the control of the experimentors than they'd like. The important part that you make revisions in response to observations.
(FWIW, particle physicists are constantly frustrated that they can't find counterexamples to the Standard Model. They know it has to be incomplete, but the lack of contradictory observation leaves them no direction to try to improve it.)