It’s going, just not where it was before.
Complete BS article. I guess Kpler is the propaganda mouthpiece.
The article double-counts "Hormuz Shuttle" ship-to-ship (STS) transfers and misreads pipeline capacity.
An example: If 14 mb/d is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, getting to 24 mb/d requires 10 mb/d to move via overland bypass pipelines. In reality, the only two bypass pipelines out of the Gulf have a combined physical ceiling of ~6.5 to 8.5 mb/d. (And that's when they're fully operational, which may not be the case today!)
Many more obvious mistakes in this "analysis." It's totally bunk.
Then again, a hard core monarchist of any stripe is unlikely to be a rational thinker.
I’m also dubious about the gross figures but I do think it’s an interesting possibility (if they are correct then there’s an uncharacteristic overshoot in pricing, which seems suspicious). But ppl in the industry seem to take Kpler seriously — I just saw them at Gastech last month).
I can’t find the referenced report (it could be just a subscriber note) but here’s a blog entry on how they count: https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-the-nuances-of-reading-...
We need to move the global economy off fossil fuels and and an opex-driven fuel system in general. Fortunately that shift is finally well under way, except in the US.
Other possibility is that that Kplr article you linked is outdated; it doesn't have a date listed on it so it's hard to tell. The graphs do go up to September though so it can't be that outdated...
There's a tonne of articles resharing this Kpler analysis. The closest to corroboration I could find was references to Marisks and Vortexa data.
This Russian site[0] quotes the following:
> Oil flows from Persian Gulf producers excluding Iran rebounded to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, averaging 19.2m barrels per day against about 23.6m bpd in the year before the regional conflict began on 28 February, according to Vortexa.
But assuming that analysis is paywalled I can't find it anywhere, and the article also relies on the Kpler analysis extensively.
Marisks is just about ship movements so doesn't really add anything to the picture. All that to say, it may well be true but the current story and way it is being propagated seem fishy.
mlinhares•1h ago
cpursley•1h ago