1. Naive prediction: it will be similar to now

2. Linear regression: look at several parameters associated with LLM (speed, quality, accuracy, etc.) and create linear regressions from these parameters

2a. Polynomial regression: same as above, but fit a polynomial

3. Group prediction: select 20 friends, ask them to make predictions, then find the average(s)

...and many more with increasing levels of complexity

And for LLM & AI, I predict that the tech bros overestimate the pace of change, while the average joe underestimate the new capabilities.