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Ask HN: Many SWEngs out there are considering re-training

12•jrowilliams•3h ago
Question is what it says on the tin. I've been mulling over the state of the industry and where I believe it to be going, and while I believe there will still be a role for us SWEng's in the future, I believe there will be a need for far fewer of us.

So much so that, a la industrial revolution, there will be lots of layoffs and SWEngs without a cause. This is obviously quite a pessimistic view of where the industry is going, and maybe I'm just looking for some reassurance or discussion - my question is at what point do a large amount of SWEngs have to find something else to do and re-train?

Comments

guitarlimeo•3h ago
Definitely. Been thinking of police school (not in USA lol) or some other public service that is actually needed in the society.
markus_zhang•3h ago
I think the process is already ongoing for the juniors and new graduates? Now, speaking as a senior, a quite mediocre one, I wouldn’t be surprised if I can never find a similar job if I’m laid off.
jrowilliams•3h ago
I would be interested to hear from juniors + new grads tbh. They're definitely the ones most immediately impacted by this
yevhen_builds•3h ago
With AI taking over coding, you can become more manager role instead of SWE itself.

You can run agents by yourself on your 9-5 and still make crucial decisions in software industry.

jrowilliams•2h ago
I get the feeling the vast number of people already in a manager role (who are not techincally grounded) will not be able to understand the benefit of allowing SWEs to step into that role, as opposed to taking on that role themselves.
vconnor•2h ago
Let's say I have 2 years to invent a new career before I'm broke.

Not a junior either, but I'd rather do anything else than be expected to turn into a middle manager for AI agents. That's not why I got into computers.

GaryNumanVevo•2h ago
I've basically been a personal hedge fund manager for the better part of 2 years. I'm still working as a SWE because it's interesting, if I get laid off I'll be retiring.
Donald•1h ago
Any good tips based on your experience here?
cousinbryce•1h ago
I’m a data engineer at a massive bureaucratic institution. Working on full stack so I can build cool stuff for people
joshstrange•36m ago
> I believe there will be a need for far fewer of us.

I disagree. Throughout the history of computing the number of SWE's has gone up and they have become, overall, more capable [0]. That hasn't cause a need for fewer of us, in fact the demand remains overall strong.

I predict instead it will drive the need for more of us rather than less. And potentially even "better" (or at least healthier as I see it) jobs. What I mean by that is, instead of outsourcing (locally or abroad) companies will be able to bring someone in-house. In the past, dropping the load on 1-2 people would have been untenable, with LLMs/AI a number of things become plausible. And this scales to every level. The company that previous outsourced their development and could have hired 3-5 developers (but that wasn't enough) can now consider hiring them.

Yes, the larger corporations might decide they can get the same done with fewer employees, or they might decide to do more with the same.

I do think a number of SaaS tools might be in more trouble if companies decide to just build in-house alternatives that are custom for their exact needs. But perhaps SaaS will adapt to "source available" or some other kind of way to allow easier extension of their core offering so that companies just build a sidecar or thin layer over the core that covers their needs better than a "one size fits all" SaaS ever could.

Perhaps this is too rosey of a view of the future but it's one that I think is at least partly backed by the history of the industry.

[0] And at least what they're able to produce, even if you disagree about the quality.

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