"Trump ruined Christmas" is going to be reality in next 1-2 months if he does not back down. American companies start sending orders for Christmas soon. Chinese companies must start making them.
When prices change, the equilibrium changes. Currently most production happens in China because it’s cheapest there. But if the prices rise, suddenly it’s not the cheapest place to manufacture things any more. And there are literally a hundred other countries where things can and have been made inexpensively. In the short term I see prices rising and production shifting more and more out of China. In the medium term there are even new factories being built. For example: <https://www.jnj.com/media-center/press-releases/johnson-john...>
There are a hundred other countries, but there are not a hundred other countries like China. It's a country of 1.4 billion people that has heavily invested in manufacturing over the last few decades. You won't replace that by Christmas. You won't replace it in 10 years. What Trump is trying to do is a sucker punch to the global economy.
nabla9•9mo ago
Value chains don't radically change in few months. Building factories takes time, training people takes time.
cruzcampo•9mo ago
tim333•9mo ago