(1) People assert that some event will happen (e.g. someone getting elected, some technology changing the world);
(2) They do zero analysis of the feasibility of that event happening;
(3) They divide themselves in regards to whether the consequences of the event will be good or bad;
(4) After months or years, the event doesn't happen; and
(5) They are confused, but eventually re-focus on the next event to get hyped about.
These people suffer significant personal harm (wasted careers, ruined relationships, endless dread of the future, increasing debt etc), because they are trapped in a cycle of unjustified exuberance. This isn't any way to live; it's an empty life.
I'm not quite saying that everything is a nothing-burger (though I do agree with OP that LLM->AGI is not going to happen), but I know that most predictions are incorrect -- because it is difficult to accurately describe things when you are excited, and predictions are usually made due to excitement. Many companies and politicians believe they have a chance of success if they can get enough people hyped.
I do not look forward to seeing how people deal with an LLM industry crash. I remember reading about a young man who borrowed $10k via student loans and donated that to a US presidential candidate, because that young man believed the candidate was going to win and wipe away all student loans. The candidate never got close to winning; that young man desperately begged for the money back; he was ghosted.
potholereseller•2h ago
(1) People assert that some event will happen (e.g. someone getting elected, some technology changing the world);
(2) They do zero analysis of the feasibility of that event happening;
(3) They divide themselves in regards to whether the consequences of the event will be good or bad;
(4) After months or years, the event doesn't happen; and
(5) They are confused, but eventually re-focus on the next event to get hyped about.
These people suffer significant personal harm (wasted careers, ruined relationships, endless dread of the future, increasing debt etc), because they are trapped in a cycle of unjustified exuberance. This isn't any way to live; it's an empty life.
I'm not quite saying that everything is a nothing-burger (though I do agree with OP that LLM->AGI is not going to happen), but I know that most predictions are incorrect -- because it is difficult to accurately describe things when you are excited, and predictions are usually made due to excitement. Many companies and politicians believe they have a chance of success if they can get enough people hyped.
I do not look forward to seeing how people deal with an LLM industry crash. I remember reading about a young man who borrowed $10k via student loans and donated that to a US presidential candidate, because that young man believed the candidate was going to win and wipe away all student loans. The candidate never got close to winning; that young man desperately begged for the money back; he was ghosted.