If that's true, we'd at least see meta having a SoTa foundational model, and they haven't put one out.
Nor has Microsoft, who would probably love to have some leverage against the OpenAI weird relationship they're in.
I can see moats in AI. Namely when i see an AI company with hard to replicate trained model weights to accomplish a specific task i see a fantastic moat. But $500million in infrastructure? That's just a big airline.
Have I got news for you, it's $500 billion actually.. One hell of a gigantic failing airline we're talking about.
All this hype around what is basically a data center PLI and a low-moat foundation model company is going to screw our industry over the same way the Telco Bust (remember WorldCom???) did back in the 2000s.
ML/AI is transformative, but the costs to develop and GTM a foundational model are not significant enough of a moat, nor is DC capex a significant moat either, becuase it becomes a commercial real estate play that can demand tech margins. CoreWeave's IPO before the debt offering proves the market softening as well.
The national strategy portion is off as well. Some major players have been ignored and others overstated.
djoldman•5h ago
I think the jury's still out on this one.
Infrastructure size has always been a type of moat, models may become moats, and apps (or how the models are used) may become moats.
timewizard•4h ago
groby_b•4h ago
No, the infra itself isn't the moat. Being in an economic position that allows you to expend the resources necessary to run training is one, though. And the cost & speed advantages you realize from utilizing scale (and economies thereof) locally instead of renting means you'll have infra as a signifier of that economic advantage.
And at that point, the additional inference infra is cost-efficient enough that you might as well just have it too, because it's both profit and a better barrier than obfuscation or licensing.
jay_kyburz•4h ago
Looking for moats makes sense in a commercial world. I thought the point of the article was that this time its different. You don't need a moat to prevent competitors moving into your market. Nation states are building their own castles, regardless of cost or business case.
groby_b•3h ago
jay_kyburz•3h ago
Business tasked with winning the race will make heaps of money, and everyday people and companies won't be choosing whether or not AI is worth it, we'll be paying with our taxes regardless.
I don;t think the Manhattan Project was business as usual, and I suspect this will be similar.
gotts•4h ago
lumost•4h ago