This story is an instance of Simons-Ehrlich wager writ large. If you search HN discussions back 5 years or more you find people saying we're on the brink of running out of lithium, it will never be enough to make the batteries to displace gas in engines worldwide.
There is no shortage of lithium. It's a shortage of active mines, and a price to buy the lithium which sustains extraction. Australia has a massive amount of spodumine, an igneous rock alternative to the water deposited lithium found in Chile. and elsewhere.
We really don't have a lithium shortage. Musk will profit from this as long as the chemistry of batteries favours lithium for energy density. If BYD's alternate battery chemistries take off at scale, the amount of lithium needed might change is all.
Also, Musks battery tech is (as far as I know) a joint-venture with other companies. He doesn't have an exclusive, the flow processes to manufacture canned batteries is his big investment but it's with somebody like Panasonic. He may be moving off this, diversified, but it's not like only Musk benefits from cheaper Lithium, or that it will alter his intent to pricing EV in the short term: BYD are eating his lunch with significantly cheaper EV, and they have the same lithium need Tesla does.
anovikov•8mo ago
In addition, lithium is very likely to be supplanted by other, hyperabundant chemistries long before any shortage of lithium will be felt. Sodium batteries, especially given their great thermal properties (so they don't need nearly as much battery conditioning hardware which eats mass), are just a bit behind lithium ones already.
ggm•8mo ago
There is no shortage of lithium. It's a shortage of active mines, and a price to buy the lithium which sustains extraction. Australia has a massive amount of spodumine, an igneous rock alternative to the water deposited lithium found in Chile. and elsewhere.
We really don't have a lithium shortage. Musk will profit from this as long as the chemistry of batteries favours lithium for energy density. If BYD's alternate battery chemistries take off at scale, the amount of lithium needed might change is all.
Also, Musks battery tech is (as far as I know) a joint-venture with other companies. He doesn't have an exclusive, the flow processes to manufacture canned batteries is his big investment but it's with somebody like Panasonic. He may be moving off this, diversified, but it's not like only Musk benefits from cheaper Lithium, or that it will alter his intent to pricing EV in the short term: BYD are eating his lunch with significantly cheaper EV, and they have the same lithium need Tesla does.
anovikov•8mo ago