If it wasn't so goddamn confusing, it would almost appear deliberate. Between this and the US suing Yemen for peace, it's looking like a good decade to strongarm America's soft power.
> Ali Shamkhani has been severely injured in a strike targeting his house and hospitalized. Mr. Shamkhani is currently spearheading nuclear talks committee appointed by supreme leader and is former secretary of National Security Council
How so? What non-WMD red line clauses do you mean?
> America has never had any success negotiating anything in the Middle East.
Trump hasn't, let's be clear. But given his posturing towards the Gaza conflict it really shouldn't surprise you that his credit with Arabs is rock bottom.
> One ethical expert (Michael Walzer) has put forward some conditions that he thinks must be satisfied to justify a pre-emptive strike:
>an obvious intention to do injury
>active preparations that turn that intention into a positive danger
>a situation in which the risk of defeat will be greatly increased if the fight is delayed
Is there evidence of these three important points to justify this attack as “preemptive”?
when hamas won, usa was horrified by outcome and "sponsored" PA security forces to get rid of hamas in gaza, but hamas prevailed and killed everybody who were against (throwing from buildings, dragging behind bikes) it or tortured them into submission
https://visualizingpalestine.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/...
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas … This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.” - Benjamin Netanyahu [1]
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/20/benjam...
the underlaying issues was that after PA tried to depose Hamas in Gaza and failed, it stopped paying salaries to everybody so Gaza was broke
An Israeli they killed then own Prime Minister because he was willing to make peace
Israel has had plenty of votes since then to elect another Prime Minister who would push for peace.
Why is this considered a success of one assassin instead of a failure of a broad democratic electorate to push for peaceful resolution?
In fact, the protests against Netenyahu and young people refusing to serve the IDF shows that Israel was trying to push for peace internally.
Then Hamas decided to attack a music festival of teenagers and young adults who want a free palestine. They spent over a year planning this operation all to kill a bunch of Israeli's who didn't exactly disagree with their cause.
If Hamas hadn't attacked, Bibi might already be in prison. You know, I'm not convinced Hamas wants peace any more than Bibi does.
even Netanyahu, which was elected after Rabin death signed follow up agreements to Oslo as result of which Israel handed over Hebron and additional areas in west bank to PA.
It wasn't failure of "broad democratic electorate to push for peaceful resolution" but violence of second intifada and non-compliance of PA with oslo accords from very beginning: http://israelvisit.co.il/BehindTheNews/WhitePaper.htm
You’ll see the one you posted was unrepresentative of what was actually on the table and what the Israeli’s would agree too wouldn’t deliver a viable state and it was divided up by Israeli roads and other security apparatus
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/map-of-the-israeli-offe...
And why did they do that? It's like gang warfare, never ending. It started long before Hamas and we've all lost track of why so finger pointing only makes it worse.
Because in 2023 Saudi Arabia, one of Iran’s most powerful enemies in the region, was expressing willingness to normalize relations with Israel. So Iran orchestrated attacks via its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, in order to torpedo the normalization process. (People forget that Hamas wasn’t the only one attacking Israel in October 2023—beginning October 8th Hezbollah began firing rockets and artillery into northern Israel, forcing over 90,000 Israelis to flee for safety.)
The problem for Russia is that such an attack would bring in all of NATO which they likely can't defend against. And either way would result in massive damage to nearly everything in Russia.
OTOH, Israel can attack Iran and as shown in the past[1], Iran will roll over and only send a weak-ass slow drone attack as a response.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Iranian_strikes_o...
> Russia would be bombing all the supply lines of weapons flowing into Ukraine if the consequences weren't so high. There's certainly no law that is preventing them from doing so, only the consequences of their actions.
Remember when Russia invaded Ukraine and people in the comments threw their hands up and said the strong take what they can? No, me neither.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Vrb%C4%9Btice_ammunition_... is one such example.
(Not to say that a few months means this conflict has ended, genuinely curious what the media I’ve seen has under/mis/not-reported)
In past couple of months it happens almost every (other) day. Sometime a couple times a day.
The only time it was on news when Israel failed to intercept missile and it fell in vicinity of Ben Gurion airport.
And I don't mean this as a particular criticism of Israel. Most other countries do the same sort of thing when necessary.
The current system might be bad, but some sort of world government run by the UN would be far worse.
Also wise to remember, there are now so many quiet parts you can't say out loud that pretty much everyone who knows anything no longer participates in online conversation.
We don't make things in the West anymore so our dialog has no constructive purpose. You don't care what I think, say or who I am but those with nefarious intend are the ones paying close attention to everyone.
The destructive people are outperforming the rest of us and it can only end in one way. It has always ended the same way.
Oh don't worry, Trump and his cronies are working hard to make the US not cutting edge at anything anymore.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-general-says-tehran-aims-...
"Iran general says Tehran aims to wipe Israel off the ‘global political map’", that's consistent with other leaders and the regime ideology since the very start
“We warn them [Zionists] that if a new war breaks out, it will result in their termination,”
and there are no shortage of such quotes, and even concrete plans (for example by using Hamas and Hezbollah), one attempt of which we have witnessed in 2023
https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/hamas-strategy-to-destr...
> active preparations that turn that intention into a positive danger
>a situation in which the risk of defeat will be greatly increased if the fight is delayed
We know independently that Iran has been enriching massive amounts of uranium to degrees of purity only suitable for nuclear weapons. See last announcement by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to Israel there have been other advancements in the nuclear program which might lead them to a nuclear bomb
2. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857003
3. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-857003
Some of it will, some of it won't.
Its driving countries to pursue nuclear weapons as its the only way to ensure you're not at the whims of authoritarian and fundamentalist regimes.
I can see an fundamentalist US president at some point and Israel is certainly not become any more secular or moderate, and their democracy is sliding down the toilet bowl.
I'd rather not consider the worst case, because I imagine it's global in scope.
TOP SECRET//SCI//NOFORN//SOCCENT-32 POTENTIAL TARGET SITES (TS//TKI/RSEN//REL TO USA, FVEY)
Facility Name Type Latitude Longitude
Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) Nuclear Facility 32,580744 51,827081
Natanz Nuclear Complex Facility Nuclear Facility 33,724229 51,726114
Parchin Ammunition Plant Nuclear Facility 35,527676 51,765176
Khorramshahr Military Base Military Base 30,4580556 48,1889111
IR-40 Nuclear Facility Nuclear Facility 34,37331 49,240749
Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) Nuclear Facility 35,738431 51,388253
TOP SECRET//SCI//NOFORN//SOCCENT-J2
[edit] Direct links -
UCF - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=32_34_50_N_... Natanz - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=33_43_27_N_... Parchin - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=35_31_39_N_... Khorramshahr - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=30_27_29_N_... IR-40 - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=34_22_23_N_... TRR - https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?params=35_44_18_N_...
[edit 2] More relevant to HN. the Dolphin-class submarines are launching missiles as predicted, the US also thought they would be part of the 'cyber-war', which they define as "electronic jamming to distort and disable radar signals, rendering air-defense systems ineffective." Intel people are such tools, jamming and spoofing is 'cyber-war' and a 'cyber strike'.... I guess they are more right, it's not like you are hacking during a war, that was months ago which is intel. But it's language used for funding purposes.
[edit 3] I will say the "agents will carry out sabotage operations inside Iran" Who'd be nuts enough to do that? The US would have to have that wrong
> TOP SECRET//SCI//NOFORN//SOCCENT-32 POTENTIAL TARGET SITES (TS//TKI/RSEN//REL TO USA, FVEY)
A leak? Which one?
Unless one knows the provenance, there is the risk it is fabricated
Do you provide this as a journal for yourself?
Likely yet another effect of our society-wide neglect of mental health issues…
Hopefully Iran does a little retaliation and then goes back to their covert proxy war rather than it escalating to open warfare. I honestly don't even know if either Iran or Israel could sustain open warfare given the distances involved without dragging in other forces to help. I would rather those forces not be ours.
In terms of American foreign policy interest it’s basically making us more vulnerable.
In so many words, Netanyahu might get us all killed. Trump will not decry anything Netanyahu does, so it’s 4 years of war and you better believe it. Putin also has no incentive to give Trump a peace deal. Provide enough war zone cover and Taiwan will just happen, all of a sudden. Negotiate all three peace deals, please, I’d love to see it.
Trump is out of his element here, he’ll be leaving a world at war. When you a let a pot of boiling water keep boiling on the lowest heat, you may not see all the boiling bubbles, but I assure you it’s boiling. It’s a boiling world, and without certain advents like AI, we’d literally have no positive news (think that through for a second). Without the miracle of AI, all we’d have is the most depressing world situation you could imagine.
to be honest, by now, it feels like the opposite, Netanyahu is allowing Trump admin to operate autonomously when it comes to internal affairs, for foreign policy Netanyahu is dictating the US foreign policy.
Go check Twitter, for some reason 90% of congress members immediately started praying for Israel after Israel's attack, as if they were handed over the message
Just say it the way it is because it's clear. US policy is run from Tel Aviv. Trump chickens out with Putin, China, and now Netanyahu....
and protests are happening on daily basis
Normally, innocent people don't avoid trial and sanction the courts that accuse them.
Prosecutor manipulated icc rules and at time of filing was already known that evidence that he shows is wrong and icc still issued warrants. Why would anyone submit to such organization volunteerly ?
And as known now, he rushed warrants and cancelled scheduled arrival to Israel to see facts on the ground in order to protect himself from sexual harassment allegations
In any case, while this government isn't popular and wouldn't be reelected according to most polls, this move against Iran is probably popular.
They took around 250 people hostage.
Hundreds of thousands of Israeli people were refusing to serve in the IDF because of Palestinian oppression on October 6th. After the attacks, IDF had more volunteers than they could equip.
I really hope that's not the real number, but it might be.
Ukraine signing the Budapest Memorandum, and the co-signers' limpness when the agreement was crossed in 2014, seems like it will go down as the biggest nuke proliferation event in history.
almogo•6mo ago
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