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Study confirms experience beats youthful enthusiasm

https://www.theregister.com/2026/02/07/boomers_vs_zoomers_workplace/
1•Willingham•5m ago•0 comments

The Big Hunger by Walter J Miller, Jr. (1952)

https://lauriepenny.substack.com/p/the-big-hunger
1•shervinafshar•6m ago•0 comments

The Genus Amanita

https://www.mushroomexpert.com/amanita.html
1•rolph•11m ago•0 comments

We have broken SHA-1 in practice

https://shattered.io/
1•mooreds•12m ago•1 comments

Ask HN: Was my first management job bad, or is this what management is like?

1•Buttons840•13m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: How to Reduce Time Spent Crimping?

1•pinkmuffinere•14m ago•0 comments

KV Cache Transform Coding for Compact Storage in LLM Inference

https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.01815
1•walterbell•19m ago•0 comments

A quantitative, multimodal wearable bioelectronic device for stress assessment

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-67747-9
1•PaulHoule•21m ago•0 comments

Why Big Tech Is Throwing Cash into India in Quest for AI Supremacy

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/why-big-tech-is-throwing-cash-into-india-in-quest-for-ai-supremac...
1•saikatsg•21m ago•0 comments

How to shoot yourself in the foot – 2026 edition

https://github.com/aweussom/HowToShootYourselfInTheFoot
1•aweussom•21m ago•0 comments

Eight More Months of Agents

https://crawshaw.io/blog/eight-more-months-of-agents
3•archb•23m ago•0 comments

From Human Thought to Machine Coordination

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-digital-self/202602/from-human-thought-to-machine-coo...
1•walterbell•23m ago•0 comments

The new X API pricing must be a joke

https://developer.x.com/
1•danver0•24m ago•0 comments

Show HN: RMA Dashboard fast SAST results for monorepos (SARIF and triage)

https://rma-dashboard.bukhari-kibuka7.workers.dev/
1•bumahkib7•25m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Source code graphRAG for Java/Kotlin development based on jQAssistant

https://github.com/2015xli/jqassistant-graph-rag
1•artigent•30m ago•0 comments

Python Only Has One Real Competitor

https://mccue.dev/pages/2-6-26-python-competitor
3•dragandj•31m ago•0 comments

Tmux to Zellij (and Back)

https://www.mauriciopoppe.com/notes/tmux-to-zellij/
1•maurizzzio•32m ago•1 comments

Ask HN: How are you using specialized agents to accelerate your work?

1•otterley•33m ago•0 comments

Passing user_id through 6 services? OTel Baggage fixes this

https://signoz.io/blog/otel-baggage/
1•pranay01•34m ago•0 comments

DavMail Pop/IMAP/SMTP/Caldav/Carddav/LDAP Exchange Gateway

https://davmail.sourceforge.net/
1•todsacerdoti•35m ago•0 comments

Visual data modelling in the browser (open source)

https://github.com/sqlmodel/sqlmodel
1•Sean766•37m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Tharos – CLI to find and autofix security bugs using local LLMs

https://github.com/chinonsochikelue/tharos
1•fluantix•37m ago•0 comments

Oddly Simple GUI Programs

https://simonsafar.com/2024/win32_lights/
1•MaximilianEmel•37m ago•0 comments

The New Playbook for Leaders [pdf]

https://www.ibli.com/IBLI%20OnePagers%20The%20Plays%20Summarized.pdf
1•mooreds•38m ago•1 comments

Interactive Unboxing of J Dilla's Donuts

https://donuts20.vercel.app
1•sngahane•39m ago•0 comments

OneCourt helps blind and low-vision fans to track Super Bowl live

https://www.dezeen.com/2026/02/06/onecourt-tactile-device-super-bowl-blind-low-vision-fans/
1•gaws•41m ago•0 comments

Rudolf Vrba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudolf_Vrba
1•mooreds•41m ago•0 comments

Autism Incidence in Girls and Boys May Be Nearly Equal, Study Suggests

https://www.medpagetoday.com/neurology/autism/119747
1•paulpauper•42m ago•0 comments

Wellness Hotels Discovery Application

https://aurio.place/
1•cherrylinedev•43m ago•1 comments

NASA delays moon rocket launch by a month after fuel leaks during test

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/feb/03/nasa-delays-moon-rocket-launch-month-fuel-leaks-a...
2•mooreds•44m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

There's a '10% to 20% chance' that AI will displace humans completely

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/ai-godfather-geoffrey-hinton-theres-a-chance-that-ai-could-displace-humans.html
7•geox•7mo ago

Comments

blueflow•7mo ago
What data is that probability based on?
quantified•7mo ago
To be fair, once-in-a-species events don't have experimental evidence to go on. It either happens or it doesn't. End of the day, it's the humans who develop and deploy it that do the deed.
iab•7mo ago
If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds
techpineapple•7mo ago
I'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure this is not how odds work. "Either I win the lottery tomorrow or I don't!"
iab•7mo ago
Sounds right to me, honestly people make stats so much harder than it needs to be
Lockal•7mo ago
A smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time!

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not.

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%.

iab•7mo ago
Nah this is too complicated I think
philipkglass•7mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excession#Outside_Context_Prob...

An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilizations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop. The usual example given to illustrate an Outside Context Problem was imagining you were a tribe on a largish, fertile island; you'd tamed the land, invented the wheel or writing or whatever, the neighbors were cooperative or enslaved but at any rate peaceful and you were busy raising temples to yourself with all the excess productive capacity you had, you were in a position of near-absolute power and control which your hallowed ancestors could hardly have dreamed of and the whole situation was just running along nicely like a canoe on wet grass... when suddenly this bristling lump of iron appears sailless and trailing steam in the bay and these guys carrying long funny-looking sticks come ashore and announce you've just been discovered, you're all subjects of the Emperor now, he's keen on presents called tax and these bright-eyed holy men would like a word with your priests.

quantified•7mo ago
AI "displacing us" will be weird and unstable. For example, it will be deployed differently and have different effects in different societies and geographies. Who is "us" in this case, white academics, first-world professionals, Russians, Chinese, Pakistanis? I don't see it displacing rural Indians anytime soon.
blueflow•7mo ago
I don't need to throw a dice to see it has 6 sides and the probability to get a specific side is 1/6th.

This is a model, tho, and i asked for data initially but Hinton should disclose either.

quantified•7mo ago
That's not what the quotes speaker says. He says "wipe us out". Sure won't displace us in agriculture.
btilly•7mo ago
This is Geoffrey Hinton, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton, issuing his estimate of p(doom). He has worked in AI for a long time, and played an important role in foundational concepts such as the rise of the idea of backpropagation. So he knows enough about the subject that he should be taken seriously.

See https://pauseai.info/pdoom for a list of other knowledgeable people with their values of p(doom). Geoffrey Hinton would seem to be within the typical range, but on the optimistic side of our odds.

I believe that this should be taken seriously. Not in a Chicken Little, the sky is falling, kind of way. But we should still take the possibility of real risk seriously.