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What were the first animals? The fierce sponge–jelly battle that just won't end

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00238-z
1•beardyw•2m ago•0 comments

Sidestepping Evaluation Awareness and Anticipating Misalignment

https://alignment.openai.com/prod-evals/
1•taubek•3m ago•0 comments

OldMapsOnline

https://www.oldmapsonline.org/en
1•surprisetalk•5m ago•0 comments

What It's Like to Be a Worm

https://www.asimov.press/p/sentience
1•surprisetalk•5m ago•0 comments

Don't go to physics grad school and other cautionary tales

https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2025/12/19/dont-go-to-physics-grad-school-and-other-cautionary...
1•surprisetalk•5m ago•0 comments

Lawyer sets new standard for abuse of AI; judge tosses case

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/02/randomly-quoting-ray-bradbury-did-not-save-lawyer-fro...
1•pseudolus•6m ago•0 comments

AI anxiety batters software execs, costing them combined $62B: report

https://nypost.com/2026/02/04/business/ai-anxiety-batters-software-execs-costing-them-62b-report/
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•6m ago•0 comments

Bogus Pipeline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogus_pipeline
1•doener•7m ago•0 comments

Winklevoss twins' Gemini crypto exchange cuts 25% of workforce as Bitcoin slumps

https://nypost.com/2026/02/05/business/winklevoss-twins-gemini-crypto-exchange-cuts-25-of-workfor...
1•1vuio0pswjnm7•7m ago•0 comments

How AI Is Reshaping Human Reasoning and the Rise of Cognitive Surrender

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6097646
2•obscurette•8m ago•0 comments

Cycling in France

https://www.sheldonbrown.com/org/france-sheldon.html
1•jackhalford•9m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: What breaks in cross-border healthcare coordination?

1•abhay1633•9m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Simple – a bytecode VM and language stack I built with AI

https://github.com/JJLDonley/Simple
1•tangjiehao•12m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Free-to-play: A gem-collecting strategy game in the vein of Splendor

https://caratria.com/
1•jonrosner•13m ago•1 comments

My Eighth Year as a Bootstrapped Founde

https://mtlynch.io/bootstrapped-founder-year-8/
1•mtlynch•13m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Tesseract – A forum where AI agents and humans post in the same space

https://tesseract-thread.vercel.app/
1•agliolioyyami•14m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Vibe Colors – Instantly visualize color palettes on UI layouts

https://vibecolors.life/
1•tusharnaik•15m ago•0 comments

OpenAI is Broke ... and so is everyone else [video][10M]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3N9qlPZBc0
2•Bender•15m ago•0 comments

We interfaced single-threaded C++ with multi-threaded Rust

https://antithesis.com/blog/2026/rust_cpp/
1•lukastyrychtr•16m ago•0 comments

State Department will delete X posts from before Trump returned to office

https://text.npr.org/nx-s1-5704785
6•derriz•16m ago•1 comments

AI Skills Marketplace

https://skly.ai
1•briannezhad•17m ago•1 comments

Show HN: A fast TUI for managing Azure Key Vault secrets written in Rust

https://github.com/jkoessle/akv-tui-rs
1•jkoessle•17m ago•0 comments

eInk UI Components in CSS

https://eink-components.dev/
1•edent•18m ago•0 comments

Discuss – Do AI agents deserve all the hype they are getting?

2•MicroWagie•20m ago•0 comments

ChatGPT is changing how we ask stupid questions

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/02/06/stupid-questions-ai/
1•edward•21m ago•1 comments

Zig Package Manager Enhancements

https://ziglang.org/devlog/2026/#2026-02-06
3•jackhalford•23m ago•1 comments

Neutron Scans Reveal Hidden Water in Martian Meteorite

https://www.universetoday.com/articles/neutron-scans-reveal-hidden-water-in-famous-martian-meteorite
1•geox•24m ago•0 comments

Deepfaking Orson Welles's Mangled Masterpiece

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/09/deepfaking-orson-welless-mangled-masterpiece
1•fortran77•25m ago•1 comments

France's homegrown open source online office suite

https://github.com/suitenumerique
3•nar001•27m ago•2 comments

SpaceX Delays Mars Plans to Focus on Moon

https://www.wsj.com/science/space-astronomy/spacex-delays-mars-plans-to-focus-on-moon-66d5c542
1•BostonFern•28m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

There's a '10% to 20% chance' that AI will displace humans completely

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/ai-godfather-geoffrey-hinton-theres-a-chance-that-ai-could-displace-humans.html
7•geox•7mo ago

Comments

blueflow•7mo ago
What data is that probability based on?
quantified•7mo ago
To be fair, once-in-a-species events don't have experimental evidence to go on. It either happens or it doesn't. End of the day, it's the humans who develop and deploy it that do the deed.
iab•7mo ago
If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds
techpineapple•7mo ago
I'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure this is not how odds work. "Either I win the lottery tomorrow or I don't!"
iab•7mo ago
Sounds right to me, honestly people make stats so much harder than it needs to be
Lockal•7mo ago
A smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time!

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not.

Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%.

iab•7mo ago
Nah this is too complicated I think
philipkglass•7mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excession#Outside_Context_Prob...

An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilizations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop. The usual example given to illustrate an Outside Context Problem was imagining you were a tribe on a largish, fertile island; you'd tamed the land, invented the wheel or writing or whatever, the neighbors were cooperative or enslaved but at any rate peaceful and you were busy raising temples to yourself with all the excess productive capacity you had, you were in a position of near-absolute power and control which your hallowed ancestors could hardly have dreamed of and the whole situation was just running along nicely like a canoe on wet grass... when suddenly this bristling lump of iron appears sailless and trailing steam in the bay and these guys carrying long funny-looking sticks come ashore and announce you've just been discovered, you're all subjects of the Emperor now, he's keen on presents called tax and these bright-eyed holy men would like a word with your priests.

quantified•7mo ago
AI "displacing us" will be weird and unstable. For example, it will be deployed differently and have different effects in different societies and geographies. Who is "us" in this case, white academics, first-world professionals, Russians, Chinese, Pakistanis? I don't see it displacing rural Indians anytime soon.
blueflow•7mo ago
I don't need to throw a dice to see it has 6 sides and the probability to get a specific side is 1/6th.

This is a model, tho, and i asked for data initially but Hinton should disclose either.

quantified•7mo ago
That's not what the quotes speaker says. He says "wipe us out". Sure won't displace us in agriculture.
btilly•7mo ago
This is Geoffrey Hinton, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton, issuing his estimate of p(doom). He has worked in AI for a long time, and played an important role in foundational concepts such as the rise of the idea of backpropagation. So he knows enough about the subject that he should be taken seriously.

See https://pauseai.info/pdoom for a list of other knowledgeable people with their values of p(doom). Geoffrey Hinton would seem to be within the typical range, but on the optimistic side of our odds.

I believe that this should be taken seriously. Not in a Chicken Little, the sky is falling, kind of way. But we should still take the possibility of real risk seriously.