Strike Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html

10•zzzeek•7mo ago

Comments

ReptileMan•7mo ago

You could build a lot of MOPs in 3 months. And probably even figure out a not so flashy delivery mechanism. And there is no chance Iran will even start rebuilding their defenses. If there is any sanity in the theocracy there - they will lay low at least until China decides to invade Taiwan.

bigyabai•7mo ago

There have been multiple ADS-B reports in the last week of cargo planes transiting to and from China to Iran. It's entirely possible that Tehran is stocking up on air defenses in exchange for the bulk amounts of oil China imports.

PL-10Es and J-10s aren't terribly expensive. If Iran's in it for the long-haul, they've still got options on the table.

sleepyguy•7mo ago

It may not have set it back at all. The discussion in different circles has suggested that Iran was able to remove enough enriched uranium to create several bombs. It possibly makes sense considering that the enrichment facilities were a target, and why keep any enriched uranium there.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-...

ReptileMan•7mo ago

Not a specialist but they are close to weapon grade, but not there. And probably they don't have many centrifuges left. And people that know how to operate them.

bigyabai•7mo ago

> And probably they don't have many centrifuges left.

In 2016, under the JCPOA, Iran had over 10,000 IR-1 centrifuges in storage and ~5,000 IR-1 in active use. Considering they make them domestically, I don't really know how smart it is to assume the centrifuges are gone for good.

floxy•7mo ago

How was Iran storing the enriched uranium? If these were just ingots, why couldn't they just dig them out of the rubble? Seems like uranium is used for armor plating, so presumably pretty tough and heat resistant. Different story if it is in solution (uranium hexaflouride?) or in a non-metalic form. Although even in those cases, as long as you weren't storing it in the same area as your depleted stock, it seems like you could leach it back out of the soil and it would still be enriched. Right?

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