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How Does AI Distribute the Pie? Large Language Models and the Ultimatum Game

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6157066
1•dkga•32s ago•1 comments

Resistance Infrastructure

https://www.profgalloway.com/resistance-infrastructure/
1•samizdis•4m ago•0 comments

Fire-juggling unicyclist caught performing on crossing

https://news.sky.com/story/fire-juggling-unicyclist-caught-performing-on-crossing-13504459
1•austinallegro•5m ago•0 comments

Restoring a lost 1981 Unix roguelike (protoHack) and preserving Hack 1.0.3

https://github.com/Critlist/protoHack
1•Critlist•7m ago•0 comments

GPS and Time Dilation – Special and General Relativity

https://philosophersview.com/gps-and-time-dilation/
1•mistyvales•10m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Witnessd – Prove human authorship via hardware-bound jitter seals

https://github.com/writerslogic/witnessd
1•davidcondrey•10m ago•1 comments

Show HN: I built a clawdbot that texts like your crush

https://14.israelfirew.co
2•IsruAlpha•12m ago•1 comments

Scientists reverse Alzheimer's in mice and restore memory (2025)

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/12/251224032354.htm
1•walterbell•15m ago•0 comments

Compiling Prolog to Forth [pdf]

https://vfxforth.com/flag/jfar/vol4/no4/article4.pdf
1•todsacerdoti•16m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Cymatica – an experimental, meditative audiovisual app

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/cymatica-sounds-visualizer/id6748863721
1•_august•18m ago•0 comments

GitBlack: Tracing America's Foundation

https://gitblack.vercel.app/
2•martialg•18m ago•0 comments

Horizon-LM: A RAM-Centric Architecture for LLM Training

https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.04816
1•chrsw•18m ago•0 comments

We just ordered shawarma and fries from Cursor [video]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WALQOiugbWc
1•jeffreyjin•19m ago•1 comments

Correctio

https://rhetoric.byu.edu/Figures/C/correctio.htm
1•grantpitt•19m ago•0 comments

Trying to make an Automated Ecologist: A first pass through the Biotime dataset

https://chillphysicsenjoyer.substack.com/p/trying-to-make-an-automated-ecologist
1•crescit_eundo•23m ago•0 comments

Watch Ukraine's Minigun-Firing, Drone-Hunting Turboprop in Action

https://www.twz.com/air/watch-ukraines-minigun-firing-drone-hunting-turboprop-in-action
1•breve•24m ago•0 comments

Free Trial: AI Interviewer

https://ai-interviewer.nuvoice.ai/
1•sijain2•24m ago•0 comments

FDA intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-intends-take-action-against-non-fda-appro...
21•randycupertino•26m ago•9 comments

Supernote e-ink devices for writing like paper

https://supernote.eu/choose-your-product/
3•janandonly•28m ago•0 comments

We are QA Engineers now

https://serce.me/posts/2026-02-05-we-are-qa-engineers-now
1•SerCe•28m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Measuring how AI agent teams improve issue resolution on SWE-Verified

https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.01465
2•NBenkovich•28m ago•0 comments

Adversarial Reasoning: Multiagent World Models for Closing the Simulation Gap

https://www.latent.space/p/adversarial-reasoning
1•swyx•29m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Poddley.com – Follow people, not podcasts

https://poddley.com/guests/ana-kasparian/episodes
1•onesandofgrain•37m ago•0 comments

Layoffs Surge 118% in January – The Highest Since 2009

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/05/layoff-and-hiring-announcements-hit-their-worst-january-levels-si...
12•karakoram•37m ago•0 comments

Papyrus 114: Homer's Iliad

https://p114.homemade.systems/
1•mwenge•37m ago•1 comments

DicePit – Real-time multiplayer Knucklebones in the browser

https://dicepit.pages.dev/
1•r1z4•37m ago•1 comments

Turn-Based Structural Triggers: Prompt-Free Backdoors in Multi-Turn LLMs

https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14340
2•PaulHoule•39m ago•0 comments

Show HN: AI Agent Tool That Keeps You in the Loop

https://github.com/dshearer/misatay
2•dshearer•40m ago•0 comments

Why Every R Package Wrapping External Tools Needs a Sitrep() Function

https://drmowinckels.io/blog/2026/sitrep-functions/
1•todsacerdoti•40m ago•0 comments

Achieving Ultra-Fast AI Chat Widgets

https://www.cjroth.com/blog/2026-02-06-chat-widgets
2•thoughtfulchris•42m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

Betting against YouTube Financial Influencers beat the S&P 500 (risky though)?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5315526
23•Corgipower12•6mo ago

Comments

Corgipower12•6mo ago
We analyzed hundreds of stock recommendation videos from finance YouTubers (aka finfluencers) and backtested the results. Turns out, doing the opposite of what they say—literally inverting the advice—beat the S&P 500 by over +6.8% in annual returns (but with higher volatility).
Finnucane•6mo ago
how does that compare to betting against Jim Cramer?
Corgipower12•6mo ago
I haven't benchmarked inverse Cramer recently, but last I heard not too well: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/187612o/inv...

Anyone know how it is doing recently?

extraduder_ire•6mo ago
I've thought inverse-Cramer was doomed ever since he shouted it out on twitter. Kind of short-circuits the whole thing.
Corgipower12•6mo ago
Yep! Markets are theoretically efficient.
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF•6mo ago
Even just in name, "finance influencer" sounds very similar to "market manipulator".
Corgipower12•6mo ago
Influencers often market things and make money off things other than being good at [name a skill or thing they are influencing]. For finance previous work has shown that financial influencers are are worse advice givers are actually the more popular ones.
Ekaros•6mo ago
Not necessarily... Depends on what they peddle, but could be just your motivational speaker, self-help or course grifter.
Corgipower12•6mo ago
Studies have been done that show that. Of course, if it is an old study, results need to be run on new data.
rfarley04•6mo ago
Did it beat....doing literally nothing?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/05/heres-why-dead-investors-out...

Corgipower12•6mo ago
Investing in the QQQ or S&P 500 can often be a better idea than doing literally nothing.
Corgipower12•6mo ago
There is a lot of psychology in the reasons why.
GianFabien•6mo ago
Contrarians betting against the herd have often been very successful. For example, John Paulson and Michael Burry made billions by shorting CDOs that lead to the 2008 crisis. The movie "The Big Short" is an Ok dramatization of how it all unfolded.

Same herd mentality, different soapbox.

Corgipower12•6mo ago
I wonder if it is because we hear about people who are successful betting against the herd.
mathgeek•6mo ago
This is certainly part of it. The survivors write the narrative.
Ekaros•6mo ago
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent... We just rarely present those who became insolvent unless it was massive screwup. And even then, well they don't get movies.
chistev•6mo ago
"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy"???
kylecazar•6mo ago
I'd say the short was more like "when others are greedy, be greedy and aware".

Buying the assets once the markets had already collapsed, and they were undervalued, would have been more of a Warren Buffet thing to do.

chistev•6mo ago
what does it mean to be aware?
Corgipower12•6mo ago
My 2 cents TLDR: seize opportunity but based on sound analysis and caution, not blind optimism. I think they are saying something of the effect of:

1. The short trade (The Big Short or similar trades during the housing bubble) happened during a period of market euphoria. I.e. when most investors were irrationally confident and greedy.

2. Instead of sitting out or being fearful (as Buffett's original advice would suggest), the people who shorted the market took an aggressive position. They were indeed "greedy" in the sense of seeking profit, but they did so with deep awareness of the systemic risk that others were ignoring.

kylecazar•6mo ago
Precisely my take, thanks for the elaboration!
antifa•6mo ago
Are they actually contrarians or are they people who were looking deeply into the topic and noticed both a bubble and an opportunity?
nullc•6mo ago
Betting against HN posters views has also been extremely lucrative.
Corgipower12•6mo ago
I know that is probably sarcasm, but betting against things people are sharing might be interesting.
nullc•6mo ago
It was my investment thesis that HN comments reflected the trading activities of a meaningfully large cohort of non-toxic trades-- people with disposable income and opinions that exceeded their actual knowledge. Bored know it all googlers day trading from their desks, and as a result there might be profit to be had trading against it because not only were they frequently just wrong when they were right the market prices exaggerated things.

I consistently made good profits from it, but I had no real basis for setting trade sizes which I was never happy with-- if I could actually see commenters orderflow I could clone their sizes with scaling, but obviously I can't. I didn't resume the activity after the 2020 market turmoil particularly as I had a lot less time available and didn't have a good way to fully automate the practice.

Corgipower12•6mo ago
That is so interesting! I wish you would write something up about it :) I guess that is why big companies mine social media data
gtani•6mo ago
No idea about any of these channels but there are some on YT that give good global macro coverage:

- Vix, IV vs realized/historical

- option flows

- market makers gex, skews, (1st 3 probably best src of edge)

- /NQ and /ES trading volume,

- bond yld curve, credit spreads, how much prim dealers hold after long auctions, PBC holdings

- metals

- geopolitical: Europe / middle East / China/ South America

- energy

- currency

- commodity prompt spreads, contangos

Corgipower12•6mo ago
Like anything, I am sure there is good work out there. The keys is properly identifying which are good and which are bad.
Ekaros•6mo ago
When you really think about it. If these people were really good, would they need to be influencers? Wouldn't they actually be spending all of their time managing either their own money or some other big money fund?

So on average they probably are not that good as they really need to do all the marketing. Which is actually quite big time commitment.

Corgipower12•6mo ago
Your thought is that monetization often depends more on visibility than performance and that getting views on any platform these days also requires marketing? Fair point.
Corgipower12•6mo ago
YouTube video about the financial influencer research: https://youtu.be/A8TD6Oage4E?si=m3yuqIO0pvivSRa2