He wants people there to be his version of Minitrue, providing the numbers he wants to see, not the real ones:
Reporting unworkers doubleplusun-good, rewrite fullwise upsub antefiling.
So if you want early data it will inherently be of limited accuracy because that involves a lot of extrapolation with whatever incomplete data has been collected by that time. If you want accurate data you will have to wait for it because that data takes longer to be collected. You do want both because you need to make timely decisions, since most times the early numbers don't get revised by much, but you also want to course-correct when later, better data gives a different signal.
Agencies like the BLS publish their methodologies in great detail. Big revisions have always been happening, only they are getting more attention these days because of the heavy politicization.
The initial estimates haven't been accurate recently, because many workers have been completely dropping out of the economy because they're afraid of immigration raids. Information about these workers is just harder to gather and takes longer to verify.
Here, take a look for yourself: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2024
If this is an understood part of the process, why is it such a problem now?
Name some organizations that have "fire employees until we get success". Does that create a culture that prizes success, or just encourage employees to hide failure?
Climate change does not mean just rising sea levels, but more extreme weather as well, which can include more flooding: warmer air holds more moisture, so when it eventually gets released it can be in downpours. See recent flooding in Texas.
Poor people tend to live in the highest risk areas because the safer areas are desired most and so the people with money bid up prices there.
When you hear headlines like "Trailer Park Destroyed by Tornado", and people ask "Who would live in 'Tornado Alley'?", the answer is "Poor people.".
It's hard to get a good measure of damage caused by climate change. There are much touted statistics that say billion dollar weather events are more common than ever, but that's mainly due to things being more expensive and increased development (i.e. beach front properties)
A more objective measure, although no perfect, is deaths caused by climate events. If climate events were more catastrophic over time, you would expect deaths to go up somewhat proportionally. To my knowledge, there haven't been major advances in rescue technology in the last 50 years or so.
But we see this number has come down pretty drastically over the last 150 years. In the US it has also come down or stayed about the same
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269715/global-reported-...
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatality-rates-in-the-us-...
It sounds a bit like the "Boots theory" of Discworld [0].
> insurance rates are often highly subsidized by federal government and actually a really good bargain
This feels a bit inconsistent with your previous comment about living in Tornado Alley being "not exactly a bargain".
What do you think about studies like this [1] which find a correlation between economic disparity and tornado risk?
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01660...
The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), for one, may disagree:
* https://thepointer.com/article/2025-08-02/ontarians-are-payi...
* https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/catastrophe/can...
* https://www.lexpert.ca/news/finance-law/insurance-bureau-of-...
* https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/in-focus/canadian-governmen...
Explanation: to a well off person, 25% higher gas or food prices is just an annoyance. Nothing in their day to day life will change because of that. To a poor person it's brutal.
You could set up a deduction system... But that's retroactive (poor people still don't have that money for a whole year) and dramatically complicates their tax filing burden and financial record keeping requirements.
The rich can afford lawyers and accountants, so the IRS has been going after lower and lower income folk for their slip-ups more often. So yet more punishing the poor.
Yes. But that cost can be absorbed across the board. The manufacturer can lower their margins. The importer / distributor / wholesaler can do the same. The B2B / B2C seller can do the same.
It doesn’t all necessarily get directly passed to the buyer.
Another question that few are asking is: what has the off shoring of so much manufacturing cost the USA? Looking at the resident of the WH, it appears to be quite a bit.
Realistically, what's he gonna do? Shut down the company, which he oh so desperatly wants in the US? Tax them more, driving their cost up more?
Lots of options.
Other ways of reducing value are possible such as reducing quality control effort, reducing quality of inputs, and reducing manufacturing costs in ways that are known to reduce product quality.
Pushing costs to effectively underregulated externalities can also avoid price increases.
It is also sometimes possible to increase efficiency. Even a long term commodity can have potential for efficiency improvements that were considered not worth exploring under stable pricing pressures. (I suspect value reduction is easier and much faster than efficiency improvement.)
Sadly, reducing value can have a disproportionate cost to consumers. Reducing manufacturing costs for a Watchman's boots by 20% may reduce the lifetime of such by 30% and reduce the quality of use by 50% (which may be related to Samuel Vimes' theory: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory ).
Also market competition can be a factor: if competitors are not raising prices (or by smaller amounts), you might lose market share.
Of course the practical problem with this playing out in increased domestic production is that it's reasonably likely that in 2028 the tariffs will get rolled back, and any company that was depending on them to survive will die. That's a large amount of uncertainty for any industry where there's a significant income investment required to get going.
[1] - https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-...
Not to mention that tariffs on directly imported goods reduce the lowest earners' ability to pay for domestic products.
If the goal was onshoring too benefit the population, it would be coupled with a strong wealth redistribution to the least wealthy to allow them to buy domestic goods. But that's not the goal.
That's not true, even for items which undergo relatively little processing like milk:
1. Cows need feed, and in the US this is mostly corn. This corn is mechanically harvested, shucked, and transported.
2. Cows are milked by machine.
3. This milk is then transported to a larger processing facility where it gets filtered, clarified (fat removal for 2%, skim, etc), pasteurized, homogenized (fat is evenly dispersed), and bottled in a blown plastic jug.
4. After bottling, the milk gets palletized and trucked to grocery distribution centers, which will re-palletize it for shipment to individual stores.
At every step of the way, we use machines that require frequent maintenance and whose supply chains rely extensively on imported parts. On-shoring all of this would be expensive and risky both because Trump flip-flops so often and because our next administration may just reverse the tariffs.
A question that I see ignored by people who ask your question, is 'what has off-shoring brought the US?' The answer is massive economic growth and improvements in quality of live.
Off-shoring allows you to make stuff cheaper by keeping the economic circumstances of the creator worse than your own. We can get cheap stuff from China because they work many more hours than people in the west do and they live in conditions that are much worse. Because we can get cheap stuff (like pocket computers, clothing, shoes, couches, cars and more) and off-shore most of the downsides (pollution, long working hours, dangerous workplaces), we improve our quality of life significantly.
So unless you prefer working in mines or working 80 hours a week in a dirty, dangerous factory, I think you're probably better off with globalization than you would've been without.
Where? Here in the USA? Hint: No. The point is, those gains elsewhere have come at the cost of the US middle class.
We don’t have who we have in the WH, we don’t have the federal debt we have because globalization has been good for the US. Full stop.
p.s. We can get into USA citizens being down graded to consumers, some other time. But that’s not a positive either.
This analysis fails to realise that there are simply other countries with which to trade with.
This is not correct. The cost of tariffs are shared by the distributor and customer. The proportion is determined by the elasticity of demand. By this I mean that for goods and services which people rely on, like gas, they will pay almost all of the cost of the tariff because they need the gas to survive. For luxury goods and services, like Louboutin shoes, most of the cost of tariffs is paid by the distributor. This is because customers are willing to substitute for other options, or simply not buy that item. They don't need it.
The downstream effects are quite complex to calculate. For this reason, neoliberals prefer to avoid any tariffs at all. For example, the U.S. is a net gas exporter, meaning that total net local consumption can be satisfied without imports. In a perfect market, there would be no change to the cost of gas. However gas is a commodity, and there is the risk that cartels abuse their market positions to exploit the fact that locals must buy gas from them if they wish to avoid the tariff. For other goods like imported food, locals can substitute. They don't have to buy imported avocados. There are plenty of other affordable and nutritious foods available locally. However, the loss of avocados is, by some metric, a loss of quality of life. This isn't generally captured in economic data. Further still, some of these additional costs are offset by the fact that local businesses become more profitable thanks to said tariffs, and this ends up in the pockets of consumers. Because so much menial labour is currently offshored, the primary benefactor of tariffs is expected to be the poor and working classes.
Because by and large, most of the jobs offshored by the U.S. have been lower skilled. As these jobs return, it is the lower skilled workers who will primarily benefit.
I agree that there are likely examples of necessities which cannot be produced cost effectively locally which will become more expensive.
The system is set up to ensure efficient allocation of capital. If it's more profitable for manufacturers to produce goods in-country, that is exactly what they will do. It's a bold claim that tariffs will have no impact whatsoever on investment and spending, because it's clear that they absolutely will.
Far too many people think of markets as some kind of magical supercomputational system. They're really just a heuristic that does avoid some spectacular failure modes, but easily gets stuck in local maximums. China did the work over decades to prime the pump so that industry picked up and moved, while our "leaders" facilitated the looting. One pathetic man throwing policy tantrums for spectacle isn't going to reverse these now-entrenched dynamics.
There is also the glaring issue that Chinese companies can just as easily set up factories in other countries with low US tariffs. They won't be paying import taxes on the equipment they bring there to do so (like setting up a factory in the US would require), and in fact they will probably receive favors from those countries' governments for the investment. So these ham-fisted import taxes actually encourage the expansion of Chinese influence into other countries.
See, I was with you until this (OK, mostly with you, luxury goods are price inelastic so the buyer definitely pays).
The primary beneficiary of a carefully designed tariff policy might be some working class people in some industries (and some wealthy owners, natch), at the expense of direct and indirect customers of those industries who may or may not be poor themselves. But an idiot imposing blanket unpredictable tariffs with promises to negotiate "great deals" that lift them in future costs far more of those manufacturing jobs than it protects, because on the one hand it creates enormous supply chain risk to US manufacturing, and on the other hand overseas companies aren't investing in building new facilities in the US because of a 40% tariff levied until the POTUS changes his mind in a few months time...
Luxury items are price elastic. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/which-factor...
see also: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012915/what-effect-...
Not a great example since energy and food are overwhelming domestically produced in the US. That doesnt mean there is no effect of tariffs in those categories, but it is much more muted than the headline numbers might suggest.
You also have little nuggets like https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5453731/nasa-carbon-dio...
The Cultural Revolution marches on. Carbon Dioxide is woke.
With inflation dropping from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.7% in June 2025, real wages for these low earners are now growing for the first time in years. The Financial Times failure to mention this context makes me question their motives.
They do talk about inflation in the article.
The FT is being disingenuous.
This is total crap [1][2].
Do actual research to make sure you understand a topic? Nah!
Come up with a conclusion, then go looking for evidence to support it, cherry picking if needed? Absolutely.
Gotta get those clicks
This is a lie. Low earners had strong real term wage growth under the previous administration.
869k workers. The size of a country larger than Luxembourg.
Yes.
> Clearly it's nearly impossible except in limited circumstance
No, you exaggerate. It’s a large number of people. I wouldn’t say it’s nearly impossible to find someone from Indianapolis (pop. 879k, 2024 est.), and the number of Americans is much larger than the number of working Americans.
It's 1.1%, an incredibly small portion of the entire working population. There's never any follow up like "where in the country does this occur?" which may reveal that it's actually a livable wage. Or other follow up questions like, "does this number include illegal aliens who are happy with being paid $7.25/hour tax free?"
You're also ignoring _how_ it came to be that 98.9% of all workers manage to get paid higher than the minimum wage without it being mandated. Are the companies doing this out of the goodness of their hearts or have market forces instead found what the _actual_ viable minimum wage for various localities truly is?
Are you serious?
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2023/
Table 3. Their methodology is addressed in the technical notes.
> You're also ignoring _how_ it came to be. . .
No. You asked a specific question and I was bored enough to help you look up a result. I’m not here to engage with whatever ideological problems you have going on in the subtext.
"Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 by 2025 would lift wages for over 33 million workers": https://www.epi.org/publication/minimum-wage-15-by-2025/
(For the record, 33 million is ~6 million more than the population of Australia)
For example, in the USSR, the price of bread was fixed by the state. But the real price of bread was how long you were willing to wait in line for it.
BTW, in the US, you are free to set up a company and then pay your workers whatever you want to. Workers can choose to work for you, or not.
Labor rights have been a raging success. 40 hour work weeks, minimum wage, sick leave, vacation leave (in non-shithole countries).
>BTW, in the US, you are free to set up a company and then pay your workers whatever you want to.
What happens when competition with deeper pockets price dumps you into oblivion? Free market is a free market only when there is competition based on the product, not how rich your investors are.
There is evidence the workers are being exploited everywhere if you bother to spend a second looking. Like the parent said, your apologism of capitalists is disgusting.
so much success that now you need two working adults to support a family of 4 while 60 years ago a working man could support a much larger family with a single income.
Funny you should ask. There was a famous case from the beginning of the last century where German bromide producers price-dumped it the U.S. in an effort to undermine Dow's efforts in the same direction. The result? They failed miserably.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Chemical_Company
> your apologism of capitalists is disgusting
Free market capitalism is the only system proven to work, over and over again. It brought billions out of poverty and it still does to this very day, when allowed to work, of course.
If you find that disgusting - I am guessing you are a big fan of poverty. I would prefer a world in which everyone is rather rich (or at least well off), a world that no system other than capitalism is even close to providing.
How come nobody practices it, then? In fact, right now the world's biggest economy is doubling down on trade restrictions.
Under capitalism, the rich are forbidden to rob the poor. Most elites are very unhappy with such ban.
But the tariffs are an interesting experiment, with some non-economical geopolitical goals thrown in, so we'll see how it goes.
Not as it is usually defined. Many places take inspiration from free market capitalism, like Javascript takes inspiration from C, but have developed their own systems. The US model is usually referred to as mixed-market capitalism and the EU model is generally thought of as a social market economy.
Of course, that's just semantics. While there is value in using shared terminology, you can make up any definition you want on the spot. You could call the old Soviet system "free market capitalism" if you really want to. The world is your oyster.
Name a country that in 2025 practices free market capitalism.
> If you find that disgusting - I am guessing you are a big fan of poverty.
An aggressively rude misreading of the GP.
The more free market ones are noticeably more prosperous.
Capitalism? Yes.
"Free market capitalism"? No.
While regulated capitalism is very effective at aligning everyone's interests, a free market operates without the intervention of government or any other external authority, and rapidly decays into a market for lemons[0] — or worse, arbitrarily negative contractual obligations, which is how serfdom functioned.
Even when the governments start off by only intervening to prevent those two issues, with minimum quality requirements and prohibitions against unfair contracts, they often find themselves having to also intervene directly in the markets, everything from the US ban on trading onion futures[1] to printing and destroying currency to keep inflation in a particular range designed to encourage the spending of money rather than its hoarding on the one hand without also preventing people from saving on the other, and even to intervene in the employment market because 100% employment drives a spiral of wage inflation that the system as a whole would not be able to cope with etc. etc.
Same deal as the Laffer curve: zero regulation is bad, micromanagement is bad, people argue about where the peak in the middle is.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under socialism, it's the other way around!
BTW, you might enjoy watching the movie Silk Stockings.
Central planning is only one of many ways to do this, it can also be managed more locally; and Soviet-style central planning is only one many ways to do central planning, most large businesses even in capitalist nations are also somewhat-centrally planned by the C-suite.
Even regarding the scale of the organisation, there is lots of overlap between governments — at all levels, from countries, through states, to incorporated municipal governments — and businesses. You could reasonably compare Foxconn to Iceland or Wyoming (I would also list a US city, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP gives me a lot of US Metropolitan Statistical Areas rather than cities, that seems like it would extend beyond the bit with the tax collection rules?)
Even governments get bailouts and/or bankruptcies, both from above (e.g. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judiciary-news/2012/07/13...), and from outside (e.g. Greece).
And corporations, when big enough, become monopolies, and raise prices to cover inefficiencies, until something breaks.
These aren't hypothetical questions. We have an answer for them all over the country where state minimum wages are rising in Democratic states.
Seriously, do some introspection here.
California tried this with a $20/hr minimum wage in fast food restaurants: the next time you go into a McDonalds, count the number of empty cash registers and number of shiny new ordering kiosks: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34033
And what's the point of a minimum wage of it doesn't provide a living? That's just letting private enterprise piggyback off the welfare system.
Not a family. Especially not families with - for other reasons- only one breadwinner.
The problems of poverty (to the extent the US even experiences it) are broader than demanding someone make uneconomic decisions with their investors capital.
This is false and not at all the reason why the minimum wage exists. It was created to bust sweatshops. You are making the same argument as the people that were defending sweatshops. It may be the argument proponents make now to argue against raising it, but it was not why it was created. Roosevelt literally said that the intent was that any business unable to provide a basic living wage for their workers was one that should not exist.
I agree with Roosevelt that businesses should provide a living wage for their workers. Mine does.
I'm happy to have both: "minimum single-income with extended-family obligations wage" and "young, single individual minimum wage".
You just won't find a lot of the former.
(The reality is we pretend we don’t have that, then rebuild it badly with bandaids - child tax credit, earned income tax credit, daycare credits, MFJ deductions, healthcare, etc).
I know several people supporting families on minimum wage.
Do they not deserve to be paid more?
Ordering kiosks mean we can meet volume because more time is spent in production. Same with mobile ordering.
The employee count doesn't need to change up or down.
Employment is not a means in itself, the point of being employed is to "make a living". If a job cannot sustain a person then it should not exist.
People deserve to live with dignity, earning a living wage.
Look, I get where that is coming from. But no one deserves anything, even clean air. Instead, you pay for things with other things (e.g. clean air in exhchange for slightly more expensive cars).
A (shitty) job is better than no job. Minimum wage should be lowered. You gotta help people with something else. For instance by allowing to build higher density housing.
Pretty sure the data of the past few years has shown we don’t really need a minimum wage apart from ensuring people aren’t absolutely taken advantage of. Nobody is paying just minimum wage anymore, apart from servers and the like that make most of their income from tips. The local McDonalds pays at least 50% more, for instance.
> In stark contrast to prior decades, low-wage workers experienced dramatically fast real wage growth between 2019 and 2023
https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/
("real wages" are wages adjusted for inflation)
But getting >2x salary in such short order is outpacing pretty much everyone else, percentage wise.
You don't have to look far to see everyday people complaining about the price of a burger or movie ticket.
IMHO, it doesn't "lift all boats", it pulls down the middle and upper middle classes. Yeah, the lower wage jobs made more money, but they didn't gain much if anything in affordability, since all of the necessities are produced by people also demanding more money.
"you need lower wages to avoid wage compression", "you need lower wage so we can have more employed people"...
If wage compression occurs, then companies have to deal with Theo senior employees seeking elsewhere - or pay them fairly.
Historically, the lower wage jobs were for kids or bored folk, who'd eventually move onto something better and higher wages.
Recently, the economy isn't great and people take what they can find. There's absolutely no shame in that. I know people in tech who were making low to mid 6 figures now doing retail. The jobs just aren't there, and I constantly fear I'll be in the same boat soon.
But that inevitably does lead to wage compression, which to be clear isn't the fault of the lower wage earners.
But in other threads, people on HN said they don't even get out of bed for a 140k remote job. What gives?
This kind of emotional reasoning is wildly inappropriate IMHO.
The commenter is not making an argument against lifting lower class wages. They’re making an observation of how economic theory may apply to this scenario.
> pay them fairly
Define “fairly”?
In this case, I’m sure you can apply yourself and think of ways we can counter the effects of wage compression now that we’ve unemotionally identified the fact that it occurs.
The observation is not that vaccines have (side)-effects, but how these effects affect other people.
And that is what loads the argument.
In this context of wage compression it is fairly easy as it is just ensuring that they are paid comparatively more than the more junior employees that apparently are getting the same or close to the same salary.
It's hard to feel particularly bad for the them when the CurrentShitshow(TM) has largely been a result of the top-ish of the middle being comfortable enough that they're happy to peddle (sometimes at the behest of the most wealthy, sometimes organically) all sorts of bad ideas both economic and social that have kneecapped our economies and torn our societies apart. Like it wasn't the Uber Drivers who thought it would be a good idea to sell out the industrial portions of our economy and make race baiting a cornerstone of national politics.
I feel much greater sympathy for the cohort that currently works $15-25hr jobs and could have perhaps moved to $30-40 roles over time, bought a house and raised some kids in general economic stability if not for fairly self imposed costs and instability.
In addition to state and local governments setting their own minimums, the decline in young people and competition for workers in that sector from food delivery companies, has put wage pressure on fast food companies. Most wouldn't be able to open their doors if they tried to pay the Federal Minimum Wage. Had it been pegged to inflation, it would be $10.90/hour, which is less than what fast food workers are paid almost anywhere.
Also, predatory debt trapping, in part due to social media exposure and student loans, is way bigger thing now.
I'm not in the US, but our inflation data was just as wrong as I've heard the US data was. Official numbers were 10% but literally everything went up at least 20%. Everyone I spoke to had their cost of living increase by significantly more than the official inflation figures.
And when "real wage growth" over 4 years is deemed to be just 13%, it's essentially guaranteed that real wage growth was in fact negative when you consider the disparity between real and official inflation figures. Statistics such as food insecurity rate, personal savings rate, and credit card delinquency rate would certainly support that.
Because a hard life feels harder when prices rise. If you're at the bottom of the wage statistics, even a large increase in salary (eg. 20%) will still leave you struggling day to day, before inflation in your costs.
> Official numbers were 10% but literally everything went up at least 20%
Inflation numbers consider a wide variety of things. It's probably at least partially the reality that the necessities are rising faster than discretionary purchases. As an example, iPhones are "cheaper" today accounting for inflation since Apple hasn't raised prices much, especially on the high end. Obviously the poorest X% of people aren't buying new iPhones, so they don't get those savings.
Anecdotally, my grocery bill for packaged goods has risen dramatically, while my produce costs are flat. I'm a vegetarian so IDK about meat costs. My utilities have risen, my housing costs have risen, and my subscription prices have risen. Meanwhile, most of my other non-travel spending (eg. home goods like towels, electronics, etc) is pretty flat for years.
Largest increase has been on every fresh food item grown in our many greenhouses. Such as lettuce (increased 200% from ~1 to ~3 for iceberg lettuce) and tomatoes.
I keep a decent memory of pricing at multiple stores and can agree with part of your comment, packaged food got it worse.
Edit: Ontario Canada
facts and experiences are two very different things. Despite wages going up, poor people can still experience hardship and the feeling of always missing out / having less. it's a matter of contrast, not numbers. And that contrast, that's formed by lived experiences, not some report numbers or percentages thrown around here n there.
Policies should aim to elevate lived experiences of people, not change some numbers here and there to make the facts more confortable morally -_-.
All the math that underpins the usual idiots screeching about "muh compounding gains/interest" applies to the divergence between real inflation and official inflation as well. You can hide a lot of divergence between the real value of the currency and the official value by "simply" having the official number be low by a couple percent over time.
I'll give an example. In 2019, a 1bd apartment near me cost $800 per month. The McDonalds paid $7.50 per hour. Today the same 1bd costs $2000 per month, and the McDonalds pays $15 per hour.
So both can be true. Wages have gone up 100% for the low income worker, which is good news. But it's not enough to offset the cost of living increases, so they are actually worse off than they were before their wages went up.
Anecdotally, many people I know would be in dire straits if they didn't own appreciating real property, because their cost of living adjustments at work aren't coming close to matching inflation. Others I know are actually in dire straits. Some are doing fine and getting the benefit of profitable work. Overall things have been awful economically post-COVID, and there are a lot of causal factors, from the policy decisions of the last decade, to the surprises of COVID, natural disasters and geopolitics, to the AI investment bubble and the changing zeitgeist. (Oh and let's not forget simple demographics, birth rate, etc...)
If I had to put on my tinfoil hat, I presume we don't do this because it would illustrate how badly the poorest are affected by inflation, and validate the frustrations they feel and which are clearly reflected in economic sentiment surveys.
So it seems to me that any effects along those lines strong enough to exactly negate the apparent real wage growth in recent years must have either 1) been basically constant, so effective wages in this group actually declined 3.1% every year on average for forty years, making 2019 10th-percentile workers reduced to 28.4% of their forbears' wages, or 2) the inflation numbers were about representative for the 10th percentile worker from 1979-2019 and then suddenly and abruptly weren't, or 3) some combination of the two.
(or of course 4), the effect is real, nonzero, but not big enough to wipe out 3.1% apparent wage growth)
No. Nominal wages grew from ‘21 to ‘23, hitting all-time highs in ‘24 [1].
> It hasn’t even kept up with inflation
It did [2].
Wait what? Anyone here getting 4.7% pay rises?
No Javascript required
x=https://www.ft.com/content/cfb77a53-fef8-4382-b102-c217e0aa4b25
echo url=$x|curl -K/dev/stdin -A "Mozilla/5.0 (Java) outbrain" > 1.htm
firefox ./1.htmThe amount of wealth that is redistributed is frankly insane.
> The amount of wealth that is redistributed is frankly insane.
I would change that to: the amount of income tax quickly reaches idiotic heights.
Capital taxes are generally low, and income taxes are for the 95% losers.There is no plan to make the pie larger. The problem is the same as everywhere: a public brainwashed by neo-liberal nonsense voting against their own interests. Private gains and public losses.
The error people make all the time is assuming these groups are static and always have the same people in them over time.
They don’t.
A great example were the people in the 0.1% percentile of income. Evil rich people!
Turns out people who end up in that group, only do so for a single year in their entire life.
Things like selling a company or getting a large windfall propels them into the 0.1%, then after that they fall back towards the median.
Same with the lowest income group. People move in and out that group each year.
The OP specifically called out trickle-down economics. Which is a myth, a false belief that somehow not taxing rich companies and not redistributing a country's wealth through taxes and other means, companies will do the right thing eventually, and they will raise the wages instead by their own incentives.
Which they never do, and only raise wages as a very last resort. They do instead coordinated wage suppression, lobbying governments to take away labor rights from the labor force, outsource their operations, set up new offshore offices to escape paying taxes, etc
So what does your comment to do with that? I think your message doesn't address any of that
Thus if you lower taxes, economics growth increases (overall tax receipts go up, not down).
What you are describing is if we are on the right side of the curve. But is there any evidence that this is true?
When I read Sowell, someone who I imagine would be a champion for this cause, he cites the 1920s as his evidence that trickle-down works which doesn’t inspire confidence. If there is no modern evidence, why are we even entertaining this theory today?
The Laffer curve simply shows the relationship between taxation and government revenue. It has nothing to do with the policies and the economic theories. In fact, there are two points on both sides of the Laffer curve's maxima where tax revenues are the same in theory. That's just a simple didactical tool, nothing more.
Saying that the Laffer curve is the trickle down economics is as bad as saying that visualizations of a binary tree are what we call algorithms and data structures.
The Reagan administration argued the US was the right side of the curve, and that lowering taxes would result in economic growth ("a rising tide raises all boats"). Economic growth benefits every worker.
I believe people actually involved in being active against top percentiles understand the difference between ongoing millions of annual income and one off inheritance. Have you got a some reason to think otherwise? I mean it was "occupy wall street", not "occupy people visiting retirement homes".
Here is something I posted only a few days ago. It is Germany, but that point is certainly not much different from Anglo-Saxon countries.
It is a podcast, and in German too, but it is high quality and on one of the best stations in Germany (Deutschlandfunk's culture channel -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschlandfunk)
https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/eliten-seit-dem-kaiserr...
> Despite political upheavals over the past 150 years, Germany's elites have remained the same. Sociologist Michael Hartmann criticizes the fact that only four percent of the population shapes the country. He calls for a quota of working-class children for executive boards.
Yes individuals can rise and fall. For example, near the big turning points in German history the people in politics were renewed, after WWII people from the working class made it to the top posts. However, with increasing stability, over the last two decades even that group has become more and more of an insider club, and people from "lower classes" have a very low chance of rising to the tops. In the economy and when it comes to real wealth it is even worse. Connections and pre-existing wealth are a good predictor of where you will end up. You may have better luck with high-paying jobs, but they rarely lead to the top of the wealth pyramid and influence.
One of the critiques of meritocracy:
> […] It’s wild that everyone is using “merit” and “meritocracy” as though it somehow avoids elitism, when in reality it’s a sneaky way to cement biases without the appearance of bias. Of course people should be judged on their skills and not their wealth. But, how’d they acquire those skills, and why would anyone assume the money didn’t help? Of course it’s a self-reinforcing system. […]
* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44571491
From the Wikipedia § Criticisms page:
> In his 2019 book The Meritocracy Trap, Daniel Markovits poses that meritocracy is responsible for the exacerbation of social stratification, to the detriment of much of the general population. He introduces the idea of "snowball inequality", a perpetually widening gap between elite workers and members of the middle class. While the elite obtain exclusive positions thanks to their wealth of demonstrated merit, they occupy jobs and oust middle class workers from the core of economic events. The elites use their high earnings to secure the best education for their own children, so that they may enter the world of work with a competitive advantage over those who did not have the same opportunities. Thus, the cycle continues with each generation.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meritocracy#Books
> In his book The Tyranny of Merit: What's Become of the Common Good?, the American political philosopher Michael Sandel argues that the meritocratic ideal has become a moral and political problem for contemporary Western societies. He contends that the meritocratic belief that personal success is solely based on individual merit and effort has led to a neglection of the common good, the erosion of solidarity, and the rise of inequality. Sandel's criticism concerns the widespread notion that those who achieve success deserve it because of their intelligence, talent and effort. Instead, he argues that this belief is flawed since it ignores the role of luck and external circumstances, such as social and external factors, which are beyond an individual's control.[91]
* Ibid
Everything in life involves hefty doses of luck. The alternative (i.e. without merit) seems obviously worse as it would be completely luck, no?
The complaint seems to want to lower the ceiling rather than raise the floor.
There is some level of luck / chance, but one can tilt the odds: more tutoring that allows for more practice to get better in the skill(s) that are 'merited', getting into schools with good alumni networks so one can 'luckily' bump into the right people with the resources you need.
Initially good luck can breed good luck in the second iteration/generation.
The meta-criticism (if you will) is that the initial batch of merited people can lock-in things for their (grand-)kids in future batches. There needs to be a way allow opportunities for future batches if their (grand-)parents from earlier batches were not 'merited' initially. Otherwise you basically get the ball rolling on an aristocracy.
Where are those people now? Why are they not all over these comments posting links rebutting the article?
Or if they no longer exist what made them change their minds?
Yes, wage growth was higher in 2022. But inflation was raging then. Today’s environment is actually better for low wage earners ( but far from ideal ).
sleepyguy•6mo ago