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GPT-5.3-Codex System Card [pdf]

https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/23eca107-a9b1-4d2c-b156-7deb4fbc697c/GPT-5-3-Codex-System-Card-02.pdf
1•tosh•4m ago•0 comments

Atlas: Manage your database schema as code

https://github.com/ariga/atlas
1•quectophoton•6m ago•0 comments

Geist Pixel

https://vercel.com/blog/introducing-geist-pixel
1•helloplanets•9m ago•0 comments

Show HN: MCP to get latest dependency package and tool versions

https://github.com/MShekow/package-version-check-mcp
1•mshekow•17m ago•0 comments

The better you get at something, the harder it becomes to do

https://seekingtrust.substack.com/p/improving-at-writing-made-me-almost
2•FinnLobsien•18m ago•0 comments

Show HN: WP Float – Archive WordPress blogs to free static hosting

https://wpfloat.netlify.app/
1•zizoulegrande•20m ago•0 comments

Show HN: I Hacked My Family's Meal Planning with an App

https://mealjar.app
1•melvinzammit•20m ago•0 comments

Sony BMG copy protection rootkit scandal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sony_BMG_copy_protection_rootkit_scandal
1•basilikum•23m ago•0 comments

The Future of Systems

https://novlabs.ai/mission/
2•tekbog•23m ago•1 comments

NASA now allowing astronauts to bring their smartphones on space missions

https://twitter.com/NASAAdmin/status/2019259382962307393
2•gbugniot•28m ago•0 comments

Claude Code Is the Inflection Point

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/claude-code-is-the-inflection-point
3•throwaw12•30m ago•1 comments

Show HN: MicroClaw – Agentic AI Assistant for Telegram, Built in Rust

https://github.com/microclaw/microclaw
1•everettjf•30m ago•2 comments

Show HN: Omni-BLAS – 4x faster matrix multiplication via Monte Carlo sampling

https://github.com/AleatorAI/OMNI-BLAS
1•LowSpecEng•30m ago•1 comments

The AI-Ready Software Developer: Conclusion – Same Game, Different Dice

https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2026/01/05/the-ai-ready-software-developer-conclusion-same-game...
1•lifeisstillgood•33m ago•0 comments

AI Agent Automates Google Stock Analysis from Financial Reports

https://pardusai.org/view/54c6646b9e273bbe103b76256a91a7f30da624062a8a6eeb16febfe403efd078
1•JasonHEIN•36m ago•0 comments

Voxtral Realtime 4B Pure C Implementation

https://github.com/antirez/voxtral.c
2•andreabat•38m ago•1 comments

I Was Trapped in Chinese Mafia Crypto Slavery [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOcNaWmmn0A
2•mgh2•44m ago•0 comments

U.S. CBP Reported Employee Arrests (FY2020 – FYTD)

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/reported-employee-arrests
1•ludicrousdispla•46m ago•0 comments

Show HN: I built a free UCP checker – see if AI agents can find your store

https://ucphub.ai/ucp-store-check/
2•vladeta•51m ago•1 comments

Show HN: SVGV – A Real-Time Vector Video Format for Budget Hardware

https://github.com/thealidev/VectorVision-SVGV
1•thealidev•53m ago•0 comments

Study of 150 developers shows AI generated code no harder to maintain long term

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9EbCb5A408
1•lifeisstillgood•53m ago•0 comments

Spotify now requires premium accounts for developer mode API access

https://www.neowin.net/news/spotify-now-requires-premium-accounts-for-developer-mode-api-access/
1•bundie•56m ago•0 comments

When Albert Einstein Moved to Princeton

https://twitter.com/Math_files/status/2020017485815456224
1•keepamovin•57m ago•0 comments

Agents.md as a Dark Signal

https://joshmock.com/post/2026-agents-md-as-a-dark-signal/
2•birdculture•59m ago•0 comments

System time, clocks, and their syncing in macOS

https://eclecticlight.co/2025/05/21/system-time-clocks-and-their-syncing-in-macos/
1•fanf2•1h ago•0 comments

McCLIM and 7GUIs – Part 1: The Counter

https://turtleware.eu/posts/McCLIM-and-7GUIs---Part-1-The-Counter.html
2•ramenbytes•1h ago•0 comments

So whats the next word, then? Almost-no-math intro to transformer models

https://matthias-kainer.de/blog/posts/so-whats-the-next-word-then-/
1•oesimania•1h ago•0 comments

Ed Zitron: The Hater's Guide to Microsoft

https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com/post/3me7ibeym2c2n
2•vintagedave•1h ago•1 comments

UK infants ill after drinking contaminated baby formula of Nestle and Danone

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c931rxnwn3lo
1•__natty__•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Android-based audio player for seniors – Homer Audio Player

https://homeraudioplayer.app
3•cinusek•1h ago•2 comments
Open in hackernews

Poorest US workers hit hardest by slowing wage growth

https://www.ft.com/content/cfb77a53-fef8-4382-b102-c217e0aa4b25
201•hhs•6mo ago

Comments

sleepyguy•6mo ago
http://archive.today/BxREt
shmerl•6mo ago
> The president wants his own people there so that, when we see the numbers, they’re more transparent and more reliable

He wants people there to be his version of Minitrue, providing the numbers he wants to see, not the real ones:

Reporting unworkers doubleplusun-good, rewrite fullwise upsub antefiling.

koolba•6mo ago
Alternatively, he wants someone at the top who will create an organization that does not have to repeatedly restate massively incorrect numbers.
shmerl•6mo ago
Or rather not mention them at all. He'd rather not bring attention to the topic to begin with.
amanaplanacanal•6mo ago
Nah, if the numbers make him look great he'd be all over it.
magic_man•6mo ago
The numbers get better as they get more data.
mh-•6mo ago
Why not wait to release them until enough data has come in that it's settled? Serious question, what's the downside?
altcognito•6mo ago
Because the market values the early results and has an adult understanding of what the numbers mean.
csb6•6mo ago
Because the law requires them to release reports on certain dates, so they do so and then make corrections as more data comes in.
mh-•6mo ago
Thanks.
kergonath•6mo ago
It’s never settled as the data is never perfectly accurate or exhaustive. We just have to do with the caveats and understand that perfection does not exist, even if you have more data than you can handle. That’s what error bars, uncertainty analysis, and confidence intervals are for.
keeda•6mo ago
Such an organization cannot exist. These agencies are always balancing two opposing forces, timeliness and accuracy. Data collection is inherently delayed (e.g. a lot of it is from surveys that businesses complete at their own speed, or from reports that each state/agency submits on their own timeline.) So collection for a given quarter typically completes long after the quarter is over, and then it takes some time to crunch those numbers.

So if you want early data it will inherently be of limited accuracy because that involves a lot of extrapolation with whatever incomplete data has been collected by that time. If you want accurate data you will have to wait for it because that data takes longer to be collected. You do want both because you need to make timely decisions, since most times the early numbers don't get revised by much, but you also want to course-correct when later, better data gives a different signal.

Agencies like the BLS publish their methodologies in great detail. Big revisions have always been happening, only they are getting more attention these days because of the heavy politicization.

mensetmanusman•6mo ago
They shouldn’t announce until it’s accurate then?
PieTime•6mo ago
Unless they are accurate most of the time, I would agree with this.
keeda•6mo ago
That's where the timeliness versus accuracy trade-off comes in. There is significant value in having an early signal to act on, especially as long as there is awareness of its limitations. And as I mentioned, this data does come with very clearly documented caveats and methodologies so that users can make informed decisions.
rrrrrrrrrrrryan•6mo ago
Normally they're accurate enough, and the revisions/refinements are small.

The initial estimates haven't been accurate recently, because many workers have been completely dropping out of the economy because they're afraid of immigration raids. Information about these workers is just harder to gather and takes longer to verify.

gg82•6mo ago
Actually the major complaint was from last year when Biden was president (I'm not sure about this year). Every month, prior months were adjusted downward, often 100,000's thousands and wiping out the previous months positive figure.
altcognito•6mo ago
How massively incorrect are the numbers in comparison to previous years? Was it anything unusual?

Here, take a look for yourself: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm#2024

If this is an understood part of the process, why is it such a problem now?

Name some organizations that have "fire employees until we get success". Does that create a culture that prizes success, or just encourage employees to hide failure?

EndsOfnversion•6mo ago
I think you understand how labor statistics work about as well as Trump.
fluxkernel•6mo ago
Poorest workers are hit hardest by pretty much anything related to money.
cowcity•6mo ago
Or related to capital, politics, etc.
kennyloginz•6mo ago
Thank you for saying this.
thenthenthen•6mo ago
And climate change…
jalapenos•6mo ago
True, since they own all the beachfront property
throw0101d•6mo ago
> True, since they own all the beachfront property

Climate change does not mean just rising sea levels, but more extreme weather as well, which can include more flooding: warmer air holds more moisture, so when it eventually gets released it can be in downpours. See recent flooding in Texas.

Poor people tend to live in the highest risk areas because the safer areas are desired most and so the people with money bid up prices there.

When you hear headlines like "Trailer Park Destroyed by Tornado", and people ask "Who would live in 'Tornado Alley'?", the answer is "Poor people.".

bko•6mo ago
Regarding people living in Tornado Alley because they can't afford to live anywhere else, insurance costs are much higher there, so not exactly a bargain. And plenty of wealthy people love high risk areas. Pretty much anything by a sea is high risk. And again, they pay for it with higher insurance rates.

It's hard to get a good measure of damage caused by climate change. There are much touted statistics that say billion dollar weather events are more common than ever, but that's mainly due to things being more expensive and increased development (i.e. beach front properties)

A more objective measure, although no perfect, is deaths caused by climate events. If climate events were more catastrophic over time, you would expect deaths to go up somewhat proportionally. To my knowledge, there haven't been major advances in rescue technology in the last 50 years or so.

But we see this number has come down pretty drastically over the last 150 years. In the US it has also come down or stayed about the same

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269715/global-reported-...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatality-rates-in-the-us-...

n4r9•6mo ago
Is insurance a legal requirement for a trailer in Tornado Alley?
bko•6mo ago
Not if you own your trailer without a mortgage. If you have a mortgage you're pretty much required to have insurance. Not getting insurance doesn't make this cheaper really as you'll just lose your property completely every few years. Besides insurance rates are often highly subsidized by federal government and actually a really good bargain
n4r9•6mo ago
> Not getting insurance doesn't make this cheaper really as you'll just lose your property completely every few years

It sounds a bit like the "Boots theory" of Discworld [0].

> insurance rates are often highly subsidized by federal government and actually a really good bargain

This feels a bit inconsistent with your previous comment about living in Tornado Alley being "not exactly a bargain".

What do you think about studies like this [1] which find a correlation between economic disparity and tornado risk?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01660...

SauciestGNU•6mo ago
I've also heard anecdotes of people draining all their savings/retirement accounts to buy property in uninsurable areas of Florida because they can't get a mortgage. I don't see that working out well long term.
throw0101d•6mo ago
> It's hard to get a good measure of damage caused by climate change.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), for one, may disagree:

* https://thepointer.com/article/2025-08-02/ontarians-are-payi...

* https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/catastrophe/can...

* https://www.lexpert.ca/news/finance-law/insurance-bureau-of-...

* https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/in-focus/canadian-governmen...

actionfromafar•6mo ago
Including tariffs. (Blanket) tariffs are almost like a special tax on poor people.

Explanation: to a well off person, 25% higher gas or food prices is just an annoyance. Nothing in their day to day life will change because of that. To a poor person it's brutal.

Tadpole9181•6mo ago
And, importantly, tariffs are payed by the importing party. This means they affect the base price of the product and cannot be made progressive.

You could set up a deduction system... But that's retroactive (poor people still don't have that money for a whole year) and dramatically complicates their tax filing burden and financial record keeping requirements.

The rich can afford lawyers and accountants, so the IRS has been going after lower and lower income folk for their slip-ups more often. So yet more punishing the poor.

chiefalchemist•6mo ago
And, importantly, tariffs are payed by the importing party. This means they affect the base price of the product and cannot be made progressive

Yes. But that cost can be absorbed across the board. The manufacturer can lower their margins. The importer / distributor / wholesaler can do the same. The B2B / B2C seller can do the same.

It doesn’t all necessarily get directly passed to the buyer.

Another question that few are asking is: what has the off shoring of so much manufacturing cost the USA? Looking at the resident of the WH, it appears to be quite a bit.

westmeal•6mo ago
But why would the manufacturer or distributor lower their margins? Charity?
Joeri•6mo ago
In the short term: fear of reprisals from Trump, as he clearly warned them not to raise prices. In the long term markets find a new equilibrium, as they always do when a new tax is imposed, and that is probably going to be a combination of lower margins, higher prices for the consumer and lower prices for foreign suppliers.
NekkoDroid•6mo ago
> fear of reprisals from Trump

Realistically, what's he gonna do? Shut down the company, which he oh so desperatly wants in the US? Tax them more, driving their cost up more?

DrillShopper•6mo ago
He's already weaponized the IRS, DOJ, and FTC, so there are a lot of ways he can fuck you for not bending the knee.
ModernMech•6mo ago
For starters, he could do what he did with CBS: threaten a potential merger. Or he could do what he did with Musk: threaten to revoke citizenship of the CEO or anyone on the board if they're foreign. Or do what he did with Harvard and Columbia: threaten to pull grants and revoke foreign visas of workers. Or do what he did with big law firms: threaten to pull security clearances.

Lots of options.

actionfromafar•6mo ago
Realistically, many companies are going to shut themselves down because their margins will be gone.
Paul_Clayton•6mo ago
"higher prices for the consumer" can include lower value at the same price. Size reduction seems a common method for certain commodities. This may result in reduced consumption (e.g., a consumer buying one package of ice cream every other week), as well as increase customer dissatisfaction when the change is noticed, and it can increase packaging cost per unit weight/volume.

Other ways of reducing value are possible such as reducing quality control effort, reducing quality of inputs, and reducing manufacturing costs in ways that are known to reduce product quality.

Pushing costs to effectively underregulated externalities can also avoid price increases.

It is also sometimes possible to increase efficiency. Even a long term commodity can have potential for efficiency improvements that were considered not worth exploring under stable pricing pressures. (I suspect value reduction is easier and much faster than efficiency improvement.)

Sadly, reducing value can have a disproportionate cost to consumers. Reducing manufacturing costs for a Watchman's boots by 20% may reduce the lifetime of such by 30% and reduce the quality of use by 50% (which may be related to Samuel Vimes' theory: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory ).

potato3732842•6mo ago
They wouldn't on purpose but I can tell you from experience that what happens in practice is that you don't re-quote everything or instantly change your quoted pricing based on a small fluctuations in inputs. So most companies will eat a couple percent (gross) margin here and there. So when an input cost rises margins my go to X-1, and then X-2 as it it rises more, then someone notices and changes quoted pricing to say Y+1, 2 or 3 depending on whether you're trying to get ahead of future hikes, how bad you're being squeezed, how bad you want more work, etc. But no matter what the "area under the curve" of all this change is almost always going to be negative. Sure, there's the occasional winner but in total the entire industry and economy loses.
trevi•6mo ago
Price elasticity of demand (=sensitivity to price changes). If the seller is afraid that higher prices will significantly impact sales (people won't buy the product or buy alternatives), it might accept a lower margin in order to maintain the volume.

Also market competition can be a factor: if competitors are not raising prices (or by smaller amounts), you might lose market share.

closewith•6mo ago
The drop in demand for staples you're talking about is quite literally the poorest people eating less, using fewer basics, lowering their quality of life further.
somenameforme•6mo ago
As of 2016 (first search result) 90% of food/beverage is domestically produced = no tariffs. [1] The big goal with the tariffs, outside of gaining leverage on other countries, is to motivate domestic production and alternatives. Without tariffs it simply isn't realistically possible to compete in many industries because other countries have cheaper labor and less costly regulations.

Of course the practical problem with this playing out in increased domestic production is that it's reasonably likely that in 2028 the tariffs will get rolled back, and any company that was depending on them to survive will die. That's a large amount of uncertainty for any industry where there's a significant income investment required to get going.

[1] - https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-...

closewith•6mo ago
Domestic food supply is still subject to tariffs because many of the inputs are. Agricultural machinery, parts, chemical feedstocks.

Not to mention that tariffs on directly imported goods reduce the lowest earners' ability to pay for domestic products.

If the goal was onshoring too benefit the population, it would be coupled with a strong wealth redistribution to the least wealthy to allow them to buy domestic goods. But that's not the goal.

tart-lemonade•6mo ago
>90% of food/beverage is domestically produced = no tariffs

That's not true, even for items which undergo relatively little processing like milk:

1. Cows need feed, and in the US this is mostly corn. This corn is mechanically harvested, shucked, and transported.

2. Cows are milked by machine.

3. This milk is then transported to a larger processing facility where it gets filtered, clarified (fat removal for 2%, skim, etc), pasteurized, homogenized (fat is evenly dispersed), and bottled in a blown plastic jug.

4. After bottling, the milk gets palletized and trucked to grocery distribution centers, which will re-palletize it for shipment to individual stores.

At every step of the way, we use machines that require frequent maintenance and whose supply chains rely extensively on imported parts. On-shoring all of this would be expensive and risky both because Trump flip-flops so often and because our next administration may just reverse the tariffs.

wickedsight•6mo ago
> Another question that few are asking is: what has the off shoring of so much manufacturing cost the USA? Looking at the resident of the WH, it appears to be quite a bit.

A question that I see ignored by people who ask your question, is 'what has off-shoring brought the US?' The answer is massive economic growth and improvements in quality of live.

Off-shoring allows you to make stuff cheaper by keeping the economic circumstances of the creator worse than your own. We can get cheap stuff from China because they work many more hours than people in the west do and they live in conditions that are much worse. Because we can get cheap stuff (like pocket computers, clothing, shoes, couches, cars and more) and off-shore most of the downsides (pollution, long working hours, dangerous workplaces), we improve our quality of life significantly.

So unless you prefer working in mines or working 80 hours a week in a dirty, dangerous factory, I think you're probably better off with globalization than you would've been without.

chiefalchemist•6mo ago
> The answer is massive economic growth and improvements in quality of live.

Where? Here in the USA? Hint: No. The point is, those gains elsewhere have come at the cost of the US middle class.

We don’t have who we have in the WH, we don’t have the federal debt we have because globalization has been good for the US. Full stop.

p.s. We can get into USA citizens being down graded to consumers, some other time. But that’s not a positive either.

Tryk•6mo ago
US != The World.

This analysis fails to realise that there are simply other countries with which to trade with.

Gareth321•6mo ago
> And, importantly, tariffs are payed by the importing party. This means they affect the base price of the product and cannot be made progressive.

This is not correct. The cost of tariffs are shared by the distributor and customer. The proportion is determined by the elasticity of demand. By this I mean that for goods and services which people rely on, like gas, they will pay almost all of the cost of the tariff because they need the gas to survive. For luxury goods and services, like Louboutin shoes, most of the cost of tariffs is paid by the distributor. This is because customers are willing to substitute for other options, or simply not buy that item. They don't need it.

The downstream effects are quite complex to calculate. For this reason, neoliberals prefer to avoid any tariffs at all. For example, the U.S. is a net gas exporter, meaning that total net local consumption can be satisfied without imports. In a perfect market, there would be no change to the cost of gas. However gas is a commodity, and there is the risk that cartels abuse their market positions to exploit the fact that locals must buy gas from them if they wish to avoid the tariff. For other goods like imported food, locals can substitute. They don't have to buy imported avocados. There are plenty of other affordable and nutritious foods available locally. However, the loss of avocados is, by some metric, a loss of quality of life. This isn't generally captured in economic data. Further still, some of these additional costs are offset by the fact that local businesses become more profitable thanks to said tariffs, and this ends up in the pockets of consumers. Because so much menial labour is currently offshored, the primary benefactor of tariffs is expected to be the poor and working classes.

dasloop•6mo ago
Why the poor and working class? Increasing benefits on local products maybe will, maybe not, move to salaries. But first necessity goods are not very elastic making that products more expensive.
Gareth321•6mo ago
> Why the poor and working class?

Because by and large, most of the jobs offshored by the U.S. have been lower skilled. As these jobs return, it is the lower skilled workers who will primarily benefit.

I agree that there are likely examples of necessities which cannot be produced cost effectively locally which will become more expensive.

Eddy_Viscosity2•6mo ago
These jobs are not going to return. 'The system' is too profitable in its current form. What will happen is tariffs will cause prices to rise as companies pass on this tax to consumers (which is inflationary). In fact, they may go up more than that, same way as they did during covid. Even if say two years from now a new congress and senate remove these tariffs. The prices will not go down. Companies will not build new factories here because it is easier, after they get the new higher prices locked in, to just lobby to get the tariffs removed and then keep the difference as sweet sweet margin.
Gareth321•6mo ago
> These jobs are not going to return. 'The system' is too profitable in its current form.

The system is set up to ensure efficient allocation of capital. If it's more profitable for manufacturers to produce goods in-country, that is exactly what they will do. It's a bold claim that tariffs will have no impact whatsoever on investment and spending, because it's clear that they absolutely will.

mindslight•6mo ago
At best there are going to be a bunch of new bonded warehouses built, so that distributors don't have to front the cost (and uncertainty) of the new import taxes until they have customer cash in hand. Appropriately-implemented tariffs could have kept American industry here if implemented 2-3 decades ago. At this point it's closing the barn door after the horse left, started a new life, and watched his foals grow up and have their own families. The horse is not coming back.

Far too many people think of markets as some kind of magical supercomputational system. They're really just a heuristic that does avoid some spectacular failure modes, but easily gets stuck in local maximums. China did the work over decades to prime the pump so that industry picked up and moved, while our "leaders" facilitated the looting. One pathetic man throwing policy tantrums for spectacle isn't going to reverse these now-entrenched dynamics.

There is also the glaring issue that Chinese companies can just as easily set up factories in other countries with low US tariffs. They won't be paying import taxes on the equipment they bring there to do so (like setting up a factory in the US would require), and in fact they will probably receive favors from those countries' governments for the investment. So these ham-fisted import taxes actually encourage the expansion of Chinese influence into other countries.

notahacker•6mo ago
> Because so much menial labour is currently offshored, the primary benefactor of tariffs is expected to be the poor and working classes.

See, I was with you until this (OK, mostly with you, luxury goods are price inelastic so the buyer definitely pays).

The primary beneficiary of a carefully designed tariff policy might be some working class people in some industries (and some wealthy owners, natch), at the expense of direct and indirect customers of those industries who may or may not be poor themselves. But an idiot imposing blanket unpredictable tariffs with promises to negotiate "great deals" that lift them in future costs far more of those manufacturing jobs than it protects, because on the one hand it creates enormous supply chain risk to US manufacturing, and on the other hand overseas companies aren't investing in building new facilities in the US because of a 40% tariff levied until the POTUS changes his mind in a few months time...

Gareth321•6mo ago
That's certainly a possibility, so I agree. If the uncertainty leads to significantly lower investment over a prolonged period of time, the benefits could be offset.

Luxury items are price elastic. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/which-factor...

notahacker•6mo ago
Strictly speaking luxury goods are income elastic (by definition) but can be either price elastic or inelastic at different points on the pricing curve, with profit-maximising suppliers attempting to set prices at the level where it reaches unitary elasticity. But when we're talking about designer brands (as opposed to the strict economic definition of a 'luxury good' which encompasses most of the shoe market), they typically price above that level anyway to maintain "exclusivity". Hermes made a point of publicly stating that it would pass on 100% of tariffs costs to consumers, and whilst I haven't tracked Louboutin shoe prices I doubt their customer base for shoes costing 10x their less fashionable equivalent is going to permanently refuse to pay a 15% price increase. Particularly not when it also applies to the brand's closest competitor in the form of other trendy European designer shoe brands. I suspect the tariff-eating that occurs in the US fashion market will tend to be US-based retailers cutting their margins rather than the foreign brand cutting its wholesale prices too...

see also: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012915/what-effect-...

Gareth321•6mo ago
I don't think I agree. Luxury goods are typically defined as both income and price elastic in economics textbooks. I agree that brands can and do employ various marketing strategies like exclusivity, as you describe. This is also true of low elasticity goods like Liquid Death selling expensive water. Still, in a competitive market where the wealthy can choose other designer brands with similar class projection and quality, theory tells us that customers can and do switch, and the market finds a price equilibrium close to the pre-tariff price.
ac29•6mo ago
> 25% higher gas or food prices [due to tariffs]

Not a great example since energy and food are overwhelming domestically produced in the US. That doesnt mean there is no effect of tariffs in those categories, but it is much more muted than the headline numbers might suggest.

actionfromafar•6mo ago
Do you assume future Iran- and Russia style price controls on gas for the domestic market?

You also have little nuggets like https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5453731/nasa-carbon-dio...

The Cultural Revolution marches on. Carbon Dioxide is woke.

jordanb•6mo ago
In the middle of last century you saw the opposite where the lower you went on the income distribution the faster your income was increasing, relativy speaking.
snapplebobapple•6mo ago
The middle of last century saw a labour shortage and much weaker monopsony labor makret ibfluence so that makes sense. The title of this article should be "in a surprise to noone, jobs that can be done by the widest percentage of the population are highly competitive and least responsive to wage pressure"
slater•6mo ago
Yup. And then:

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

hellgas00•6mo ago
"people earning roughly less than $806 a week — slowed to an annual rate of 3.7 per cent in June, down from a peak of 7.5 per cent in late 2022"

With inflation dropping from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.7% in June 2025, real wages for these low earners are now growing for the first time in years. The Financial Times failure to mention this context makes me question their motives.

lumost•6mo ago
This is probably cold comfort to a population looking at housing prices rising at 3.7% in 2025 per realtor.com.
mnhnthrow34•6mo ago
It doesn't change the "Poorest US workers hit hardest by slowing wage growth" premise of the article, I don't see any hidden motive needed to explain this.
JKCalhoun•6mo ago
"The wage growth trend means the lowest paid are now more likely to find themselves among the 40 per cent of US workers whose salaries are not keeping pace with inflation…"

They do talk about inflation in the article.

hellgas00•6mo ago
They are not more likely to find themselves among the 40% of workers who's salaries are lagging inflation, they are more likely to be among the 60% who's salaries are outpacing inflation.

The FT is being disingenuous.

soganess•6mo ago
Wage 'growth' after 2+ years of real wage decline (vs stagnation) is the coldest comfort to folks categorized as 'low earner'. Anyone ignoring that make me question their motives
JumpCrisscross•6mo ago
> real wages for these low earners are now growing for the first time in years

This is total crap [1][2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M

[2] https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/

refurb•6mo ago
It’s how journalism works today.

Do actual research to make sure you understand a topic? Nah!

Come up with a conclusion, then go looking for evidence to support it, cherry picking if needed? Absolutely.

Gotta get those clicks

Marazan•6mo ago
> now growing for the first time in years

This is a lie. Low earners had strong real term wage growth under the previous administration.

deadbabe•6mo ago
There is just no advantage to being poor in America.
alvah•6mo ago
Why should there be an advantage to being poor?
t43562•6mo ago
...because if there isn't then your democracy will turn into an oligarchy. The advantage needs to be somewhat against the richest and for the poorest if you're going to protect that.
Rygian•6mo ago
s/will turn/has turned/
keiferski•6mo ago
Presumably you might want to give the poor a systemic advantage over the rich in order to balance the system and make it more democratic. Otherwise the rich will have more influence.
RiverCrochet•6mo ago
God created all humans equal in His image. Therefore when humans impose disadvantages on other humans just because they are poor, they go against God.
user9999999999•6mo ago
the min wage is long overdue, its should be somewhere near $25/hr this is how you 'tax' billionaires
agent_turtle•6mo ago
I got my first job as a grocer in 2010 which paid a minimum wage of $7.25/hr. That was 15 years ago and the minimum wage is still $7.25/hr.
xienze•6mo ago
But is anyone _actually_ getting paid the minimum wage these days? Might want to check what the grocery store you worked at in 2010 is really paying these days. I’d bet good money it’s significantly more than $7.25/hour.
TimorousBestie•6mo ago
https://usafacts.org/articles/minimum-wage-america-how-many-...

869k workers. The size of a country larger than Luxembourg.

xienze•6mo ago
Doesn't the fact that 98.9% of all workers earn more than the minimum wage kinda highlight that it's really not necessary for the federal government to increase it? Clearly it's nearly impossible except in limited circumstance to actually _find_ workers who'll accept the minimum wage, hence the fact that hardly anyone is paying it.
TimorousBestie•6mo ago
> But is anyone _actually_ getting paid the minimum wage these days?

Yes.

> Clearly it's nearly impossible except in limited circumstance

No, you exaggerate. It’s a large number of people. I wouldn’t say it’s nearly impossible to find someone from Indianapolis (pop. 879k, 2024 est.), and the number of Americans is much larger than the number of working Americans.

xienze•6mo ago
> No, you exaggerate. It’s a large number of people.

It's 1.1%, an incredibly small portion of the entire working population. There's never any follow up like "where in the country does this occur?" which may reveal that it's actually a livable wage. Or other follow up questions like, "does this number include illegal aliens who are happy with being paid $7.25/hour tax free?"

You're also ignoring _how_ it came to be that 98.9% of all workers manage to get paid higher than the minimum wage without it being mandated. Are the companies doing this out of the goodness of their hearts or have market forces instead found what the _actual_ viable minimum wage for various localities truly is?

TimorousBestie•6mo ago
> There's never any follow up like "where in the country does this occur?"

Are you serious?

https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2023/

Table 3. Their methodology is addressed in the technical notes.

> You're also ignoring _how_ it came to be. . .

No. You asked a specific question and I was bored enough to help you look up a result. I’m not here to engage with whatever ideological problems you have going on in the subtext.

agent_turtle•6mo ago
7.26 is technically more than 7.25. Further, a low floor acts as a weight, depressing wages generally.

"Raising the federal minimum wage to $15 by 2025 would lift wages for over 33 million workers": https://www.epi.org/publication/minimum-wage-15-by-2025/

(For the record, 33 million is ~6 million more than the population of Australia)

xienze•6mo ago
A federal-level minimum wage doesn't make sense, precisely because what is considered minimum wage in LA isn't the same as what's considered minimum wage in rural Louisiana, and vice-versa. The fact that 98.9% of workers manage to receive more than the minimum wage strongly suggests the market forces have done a pretty good job of determining what a viable minimum wage for various parts of the US is (including apparently parts where $7.25/hour works).
kortilla•6mo ago
This is how you tax small business owners. The vast majority of businesses are not owned by billionaires
monster_truck•6mo ago
Perhaps if we taxed the billionaires more we could subsidize increased wages for small business owners or even do something actually good like provide universal basic income so that they cannot be so easily exploited for wildly undervalued labor
WalterBright•6mo ago
The value of labor is what people are willing to pay for it.
anigbrowl•6mo ago
Deliberately underpaying people and then telling them their work has low value is one of the most disgusting aspects of capitalists. There's lots of CEOs who are not especially productive, they just have leverage.
WalterBright•6mo ago
The government tries hard to repeal the Law of Supply and Demand, but so far has failed 100% of the time. The government can implement wage and price controls, but those still do not set the actual value.

For example, in the USSR, the price of bread was fixed by the state. But the real price of bread was how long you were willing to wait in line for it.

BTW, in the US, you are free to set up a company and then pay your workers whatever you want to. Workers can choose to work for you, or not.

tpxl•6mo ago
> but so far has failed 100% of the time

Labor rights have been a raging success. 40 hour work weeks, minimum wage, sick leave, vacation leave (in non-shithole countries).

>BTW, in the US, you are free to set up a company and then pay your workers whatever you want to.

What happens when competition with deeper pockets price dumps you into oblivion? Free market is a free market only when there is competition based on the product, not how rich your investors are.

There is evidence the workers are being exploited everywhere if you bother to spend a second looking. Like the parent said, your apologism of capitalists is disgusting.

ekianjo•6mo ago
> Labor rights have been a raging success

so much success that now you need two working adults to support a family of 4 while 60 years ago a working man could support a much larger family with a single income.

nickpp•6mo ago
> What happens when competition with deeper pockets price dumps you into oblivion?

Funny you should ask. There was a famous case from the beginning of the last century where German bromide producers price-dumped it the U.S. in an effort to undermine Dow's efforts in the same direction. The result? They failed miserably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Chemical_Company

> your apologism of capitalists is disgusting

Free market capitalism is the only system proven to work, over and over again. It brought billions out of poverty and it still does to this very day, when allowed to work, of course.

If you find that disgusting - I am guessing you are a big fan of poverty. I would prefer a world in which everyone is rather rich (or at least well off), a world that no system other than capitalism is even close to providing.

9rx•6mo ago
> Free market capitalism is the only system proven to work, over and over again.

How come nobody practices it, then? In fact, right now the world's biggest economy is doubling down on trade restrictions.

Ray20•6mo ago
> How come nobody practices it, then?

Under capitalism, the rich are forbidden to rob the poor. Most elites are very unhappy with such ban.

nickpp•6mo ago
It's not an on/off switch, of course, but rather a sliding scale. The free-er your markets are, the better the results. Till recently, USA was in top with both, in sharp contrast to, say, the EU who pro-regulation and anti-business.

But the tariffs are an interesting experiment, with some non-economical geopolitical goals thrown in, so we'll see how it goes.

9rx•6mo ago
> It's not an on/off switch, of course

Not as it is usually defined. Many places take inspiration from free market capitalism, like Javascript takes inspiration from C, but have developed their own systems. The US model is usually referred to as mixed-market capitalism and the EU model is generally thought of as a social market economy.

Of course, that's just semantics. While there is value in using shared terminology, you can make up any definition you want on the spot. You could call the old Soviet system "free market capitalism" if you really want to. The world is your oyster.

WalterBright•6mo ago
Making up one's own definition for words is a losing argument.
TimorousBestie•6mo ago
> Free market capitalism is the only system proven to work, over and over again.

Name a country that in 2025 practices free market capitalism.

> If you find that disgusting - I am guessing you are a big fan of poverty.

An aggressively rude misreading of the GP.

WalterBright•6mo ago
There are countries that are more free market, and countries that are less free market.

The more free market ones are noticeably more prosperous.

ben_w•6mo ago
> Free market capitalism is the only system proven to work, over and over again. It brought billions out of poverty and it still does to this very day, when allowed to work, of course.

Capitalism? Yes.

"Free market capitalism"? No.

While regulated capitalism is very effective at aligning everyone's interests, a free market operates without the intervention of government or any other external authority, and rapidly decays into a market for lemons[0] — or worse, arbitrarily negative contractual obligations, which is how serfdom functioned.

Even when the governments start off by only intervening to prevent those two issues, with minimum quality requirements and prohibitions against unfair contracts, they often find themselves having to also intervene directly in the markets, everything from the US ban on trading onion futures[1] to printing and destroying currency to keep inflation in a particular range designed to encourage the spending of money rather than its hoarding on the one hand without also preventing people from saving on the other, and even to intervene in the employment market because 100% employment drives a spiral of wage inflation that the system as a whole would not be able to cope with etc. etc.

Same deal as the Laffer curve: zero regulation is bad, micromanagement is bad, people argue about where the peak in the middle is.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

WalterBright•6mo ago
> your apologism of capitalists is disgusting

Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under socialism, it's the other way around!

BTW, you might enjoy watching the movie Silk Stockings.

ben_w•6mo ago
Governments are on both sides of supply and demand: their powers to tax and spend mean they can put their metaphorical foot on the metaphorical scales to tip the balances whichever way they want, to a large degree, with rapid effect.

Central planning is only one of many ways to do this, it can also be managed more locally; and Soviet-style central planning is only one many ways to do central planning, most large businesses even in capitalist nations are also somewhat-centrally planned by the C-suite.

WalterBright•6mo ago
Corporations do do central planning, but they do so at the high risk of becoming unmanageable and then they fall, and a competitor replaces them. Government central planning just raises taxes to cover the inefficiencies, until eventually the economy collapses.
ben_w•6mo ago
That's a similarity, not a difference.

Even regarding the scale of the organisation, there is lots of overlap between governments — at all levels, from countries, through states, to incorporated municipal governments — and businesses. You could reasonably compare Foxconn to Iceland or Wyoming (I would also list a US city, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_GDP gives me a lot of US Metropolitan Statistical Areas rather than cities, that seems like it would extend beyond the bit with the tax collection rules?)

Even governments get bailouts and/or bankruptcies, both from above (e.g. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judiciary-news/2012/07/13...), and from outside (e.g. Greece).

And corporations, when big enough, become monopolies, and raise prices to cover inefficiencies, until something breaks.

actionfromafar•6mo ago
... what people are willing to pay for it... when the corporations already achieved regulatory capture and can force a partly state subsidized work force to take shit underpaid jobs. It's like a handout to corporations.
agent_turtle•6mo ago
You view this as zero sum. How many new business owners would be created if people had enough to save? How many new businesses would exist if more money was flowing in the economy? Should businesses exist if they can't pay livable wages?

These aren't hypothetical questions. We have an answer for them all over the country where state minimum wages are rising in Democratic states.

murderfs•6mo ago
Is the answer a good one? https://www.nber.org/papers/w34033
agent_turtle•6mo ago
yeah, actually. If the worst thing you can find when paying living wages for workers is a small drop of 2.7% employment among fast food chains, that sounds like a great trade off.

Seriously, do some introspection here.

murderfs•6mo ago
That's a good way of turning the poorest US workers into the poorest US unemployed. If you raise the minimum wage above the actual value of an employee, then they're just going to get fired. Even if they still provide more value than their being paid, it makes automating away their job more competitive.

California tried this with a $20/hr minimum wage in fast food restaurants: the next time you go into a McDonalds, count the number of empty cash registers and number of shiny new ordering kiosks: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34033

XorNot•6mo ago
McDonalds were going to do that anyway.

And what's the point of a minimum wage of it doesn't provide a living? That's just letting private enterprise piggyback off the welfare system.

ta20240528•6mo ago
Good question - it has a partial answer: minimum wage is to provide a living to a single young person for a shortish period.

Not a family. Especially not families with - for other reasons- only one breadwinner.

The problems of poverty (to the extent the US even experiences it) are broader than demanding someone make uneconomic decisions with their investors capital.

fzeroracer•6mo ago
> Good question - it has a partial answer: minimum wage is to provide a living to a single young person for a shortish period.

This is false and not at all the reason why the minimum wage exists. It was created to bust sweatshops. You are making the same argument as the people that were defending sweatshops. It may be the argument proponents make now to argue against raising it, but it was not why it was created. Roosevelt literally said that the intent was that any business unable to provide a basic living wage for their workers was one that should not exist.

ta20240528•6mo ago
I may make a similar argument, but you go too far sir to imply I am aligned with evil people defending sweatshops.

I agree with Roosevelt that businesses should provide a living wage for their workers. Mine does.

I'm happy to have both: "minimum single-income with extended-family obligations wage" and "young, single individual minimum wage".

You just won't find a lot of the former.

bombcar•6mo ago
This is actually the policy argued for by the Catholic Church in various documents; but it results in an obvious inequality that makes many angry - two people doing the exact same job, and the single man is paid less than the married family man.

(The reality is we pretend we don’t have that, then rebuild it badly with bandaids - child tax credit, earned income tax credit, daycare credits, MFJ deductions, healthcare, etc).

hackable_sand•6mo ago
Why not?

I know several people supporting families on minimum wage.

Do they not deserve to be paid more?

hackable_sand•6mo ago
Pure japes.

Ordering kiosks mean we can meet volume because more time is spent in production. Same with mobile ordering.

The employee count doesn't need to change up or down.

Tryk•6mo ago
So by your logic we should consider lowering the minimum wage in order to ensure employment.

Employment is not a means in itself, the point of being employed is to "make a living". If a job cannot sustain a person then it should not exist.

People deserve to live with dignity, earning a living wage.

tornikeo•6mo ago
>People deserve to live with dignity, earning a living wage.

Look, I get where that is coming from. But no one deserves anything, even clean air. Instead, you pay for things with other things (e.g. clean air in exhchange for slightly more expensive cars).

A (shitty) job is better than no job. Minimum wage should be lowered. You gotta help people with something else. For instance by allowing to build higher density housing.

Jcowell•6mo ago
> But no one deserves anything, even clean air. People 100% deserve clean air?
acuozzo•6mo ago
> no one deserves anything

https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/2021/03/udhr.pdf

WalterBright•6mo ago
According to the WSJ, the California minimum wage increase for fast food workers reduced the number of those jobs by 20,000.
ipnon•6mo ago
Why not $250/hr? Or $2,500/hr?
ekianjo•6mo ago
the eternal question people avoid. there is no "fair wage" definition.
AuryGlenz•6mo ago
Why?

Pretty sure the data of the past few years has shown we don’t really need a minimum wage apart from ensuring people aren’t absolutely taken advantage of. Nobody is paying just minimum wage anymore, apart from servers and the like that make most of their income from tips. The local McDonalds pays at least 50% more, for instance.

yalogin•6mo ago
What slowing wage growth? For the poorest the wages have essentially not increased for a long time right? It hasn’t even kept up with inflation. The recent bill actually makes it much worse.
roywiggins•6mo ago
As far as I can tell, over the last few years at least, that's mostly not true: wages outpaced inflation, and it outpaced inflation more for lower-income workers than higher.

> In stark contrast to prior decades, low-wage workers experienced dramatically fast real wage growth between 2019 and 2023

https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/

("real wages" are wages adjusted for inflation)

silisili•6mo ago
I'm obviously not an expert, but assumed the same thing. I watched a fast food joint near me go from 9/hr to 21/hr in just a few years. Maybe that was just pandemic pricing, I don't know.

But getting >2x salary in such short order is outpacing pretty much everyone else, percentage wise.

bluefirebrand•6mo ago
This probably means that those wages were being suppressed hard for years and they finally weren't able to hire people at that wage anymore
silisili•6mo ago
You're probably right, but it ultimately leads to wage compression which is for most of the middle class a disaster.

You don't have to look far to see everyday people complaining about the price of a burger or movie ticket.

IMHO, it doesn't "lift all boats", it pulls down the middle and upper middle classes. Yeah, the lower wage jobs made more money, but they didn't gain much if anything in affordability, since all of the necessities are produced by people also demanding more money.

tossandthrow•6mo ago
All arguments against lower class people getting higher wages are IMHO wildly inappropriate.

"you need lower wages to avoid wage compression", "you need lower wage so we can have more employed people"...

If wage compression occurs, then companies have to deal with Theo senior employees seeking elsewhere - or pay them fairly.

silisili•6mo ago
Today, I'd agree. It felt like a dirty thing to even write.

Historically, the lower wage jobs were for kids or bored folk, who'd eventually move onto something better and higher wages.

Recently, the economy isn't great and people take what they can find. There's absolutely no shame in that. I know people in tech who were making low to mid 6 figures now doing retail. The jobs just aren't there, and I constantly fear I'll be in the same boat soon.

But that inevitably does lead to wage compression, which to be clear isn't the fault of the lower wage earners.

FirmwareBurner•6mo ago
>I know people in tech who were making low to mid 6 figures now doing retail.

But in other threads, people on HN said they don't even get out of bed for a 140k remote job. What gives?

ryanjshaw•6mo ago
> All arguments against lower class people getting higher wages are IMHO wildly inappropriate.

This kind of emotional reasoning is wildly inappropriate IMHO.

The commenter is not making an argument against lifting lower class wages. They’re making an observation of how economic theory may apply to this scenario.

> pay them fairly

Define “fairly”?

wat10000•6mo ago
They said it’s bad for one group and neutral for another. How is that not an argument against it?
ryanjshaw•6mo ago
If I make the observation that some vaccines can have anaphylaxis as a side effect, am I making an argument against vaccinations? Obviously not. In that case, you’d take precautions at vaccination sites: have EpiPens available, make people wait 15min after taking the shot before leaving.

In this case, I’m sure you can apply yourself and think of ways we can counter the effects of wage compression now that we’ve unemotionally identified the fact that it occurs.

tossandthrow•6mo ago
To stay in your vaccine narrative: if I say that you expose other people to a health risk for not getting vaccinated - then yes this is an argument for getting vaccinated.

The observation is not that vaccines have (side)-effects, but how these effects affect other people.

And that is what loads the argument.

wat10000•6mo ago
The analogous argument would be that vaccines cause anaphylaxis and don’t prevent disease. If you made those statements then that’s clearly an argument against using them.
tossandthrow•6mo ago
> Define “fairly”?

In this context of wage compression it is fairly easy as it is just ensuring that they are paid comparatively more than the more junior employees that apparently are getting the same or close to the same salary.

Hikikomori•6mo ago
Somehow Europe can pay fast food workers above poverty, including 5 week paid vacation, healthcare and many other benefits without the middle class not being able to afford a burger. America's obsession with forcing people that work full time to live in squalor is insane.
potato3732842•6mo ago
>IMHO, it doesn't "lift all boats", it pulls down the middle and upper middle classes.

It's hard to feel particularly bad for the them when the CurrentShitshow(TM) has largely been a result of the top-ish of the middle being comfortable enough that they're happy to peddle (sometimes at the behest of the most wealthy, sometimes organically) all sorts of bad ideas both economic and social that have kneecapped our economies and torn our societies apart. Like it wasn't the Uber Drivers who thought it would be a good idea to sell out the industrial portions of our economy and make race baiting a cornerstone of national politics.

I feel much greater sympathy for the cohort that currently works $15-25hr jobs and could have perhaps moved to $30-40 roles over time, bought a house and raised some kids in general economic stability if not for fairly self imposed costs and instability.

Mountain_Skies•6mo ago
Activists love to use the Federal Minimum Wage, which has not increased in a long time (16 years), as their basis for that claim, ignoring how few workers are actually paid the Federal Minimum Wage. It's become a worthless metric for anything other than misleading arguments.

In addition to state and local governments setting their own minimums, the decline in young people and competition for workers in that sector from food delivery companies, has put wage pressure on fast food companies. Most wouldn't be able to open their doors if they tried to pay the Federal Minimum Wage. Had it been pegged to inflation, it would be $10.90/hour, which is less than what fast food workers are paid almost anywhere.

DanielHB•6mo ago
I imagine how cost of living/inflation is calculated became a lot more complex in the past few years which skews the comparison. Especially because of cost of buying homes and cost of renting and greater disparity between rural and urban in the context of increasingly higher urban populations.

Also, predatory debt trapping, in part due to social media exposure and student loans, is way bigger thing now.

dns_snek•6mo ago
If these reports say that things are better for low income people, why do people living that reality overwhelmingly disagree? Any statistics derived from inflation figures are doomed to be wrong when the inflation data was wrong to begin with.

I'm not in the US, but our inflation data was just as wrong as I've heard the US data was. Official numbers were 10% but literally everything went up at least 20%. Everyone I spoke to had their cost of living increase by significantly more than the official inflation figures.

And when "real wage growth" over 4 years is deemed to be just 13%, it's essentially guaranteed that real wage growth was in fact negative when you consider the disparity between real and official inflation figures. Statistics such as food insecurity rate, personal savings rate, and credit card delinquency rate would certainly support that.

vineyardmike•6mo ago
> why do people living that reality overwhelmingly disagree

Because a hard life feels harder when prices rise. If you're at the bottom of the wage statistics, even a large increase in salary (eg. 20%) will still leave you struggling day to day, before inflation in your costs.

> Official numbers were 10% but literally everything went up at least 20%

Inflation numbers consider a wide variety of things. It's probably at least partially the reality that the necessities are rising faster than discretionary purchases. As an example, iPhones are "cheaper" today accounting for inflation since Apple hasn't raised prices much, especially on the high end. Obviously the poorest X% of people aren't buying new iPhones, so they don't get those savings.

Anecdotally, my grocery bill for packaged goods has risen dramatically, while my produce costs are flat. I'm a vegetarian so IDK about meat costs. My utilities have risen, my housing costs have risen, and my subscription prices have risen. Meanwhile, most of my other non-travel spending (eg. home goods like towels, electronics, etc) is pretty flat for years.

iinnPP•6mo ago
Ingredients household here. My grocery bill doubled in 7 years without any packages of anything.

Largest increase has been on every fresh food item grown in our many greenhouses. Such as lettuce (increased 200% from ~1 to ~3 for iceberg lettuce) and tomatoes.

I keep a decent memory of pricing at multiple stores and can agree with part of your comment, packaged food got it worse.

Edit: Ontario Canada

sim7c00•6mo ago
the reports are written by people who are not in the same wage category. that is why they don't reflect the lived experiences of these people.

facts and experiences are two very different things. Despite wages going up, poor people can still experience hardship and the feeling of always missing out / having less. it's a matter of contrast, not numbers. And that contrast, that's formed by lived experiences, not some report numbers or percentages thrown around here n there.

Policies should aim to elevate lived experiences of people, not change some numbers here and there to make the facts more confortable morally -_-.

potato3732842•6mo ago
>I'm not in the US, but our inflation data was just as wrong as I've heard the US data was. Official numbers were 10% but literally everything went up at least 20%. Everyone I spoke to had their cost of living increase by significantly more than the official inflation figures.

All the math that underpins the usual idiots screeching about "muh compounding gains/interest" applies to the divergence between real inflation and official inflation as well. You can hide a lot of divergence between the real value of the currency and the official value by "simply" having the official number be low by a couple percent over time.

ModernMech•6mo ago
> If these reports say that things are better for low income people, why do people living that reality overwhelmingly disagree?

I'll give an example. In 2019, a 1bd apartment near me cost $800 per month. The McDonalds paid $7.50 per hour. Today the same 1bd costs $2000 per month, and the McDonalds pays $15 per hour.

So both can be true. Wages have gone up 100% for the low income worker, which is good news. But it's not enough to offset the cost of living increases, so they are actually worse off than they were before their wages went up.

smolder•6mo ago
That's a study that underestimates growth in cost of living, i.e. gouging by rent seekers and businesses, and ignores changes in status, i.e. people leaving the job market or moving down to something worse. It's not surprising that the lowest income earners got a substantial boost in that period, since life is getting substantially more expensive. Importantly, I don't think their "real wage" inflation adjusted values are fair. People being told inflation was one amount when their actual CoL was vastly outpacing that was part of what fueled the anger that got Trump elected again, not that he has helped (or will help) anything since '23 where that analysis ends.

Anecdotally, many people I know would be in dire straits if they didn't own appreciating real property, because their cost of living adjustments at work aren't coming close to matching inflation. Others I know are actually in dire straits. Some are doing fine and getting the benefit of profitable work. Overall things have been awful economically post-COVID, and there are a lot of causal factors, from the policy decisions of the last decade, to the surprises of COVID, natural disasters and geopolitics, to the AI investment bubble and the changing zeitgeist. (Oh and let's not forget simple demographics, birth rate, etc...)

Gareth321•6mo ago
The problem with comparing wages by cohort and average inflation is that inflation doesn't affect each cohort evenly. By and large, necessities continue to outpace top line inflation, and they have done so for decades. These include food, healthcare, housing, daycare, and education. Lower income people spend more of their income as a proportion on necessities, so they are impacted more than average by inflation. In order to tell if these lower income people have indeed received wage increases in line with inflation, we would need a model which uses a lower income basket of goods and services.

If I had to put on my tinfoil hat, I presume we don't do this because it would illustrate how badly the poorest are affected by inflation, and validate the frustrations they feel and which are clearly reflected in economic sentiment surveys.

roywiggins•6mo ago
One thing is that 10th percentile wages did barely keep up with inflation from 1979-2019 (0.1% growth annualized), it's only since then that it showed an increase (3.1% annualized).

So it seems to me that any effects along those lines strong enough to exactly negate the apparent real wage growth in recent years must have either 1) been basically constant, so effective wages in this group actually declined 3.1% every year on average for forty years, making 2019 10th-percentile workers reduced to 28.4% of their forbears' wages, or 2) the inflation numbers were about representative for the 10th percentile worker from 1979-2019 and then suddenly and abruptly weren't, or 3) some combination of the two.

(or of course 4), the effect is real, nonzero, but not big enough to wipe out 3.1% apparent wage growth)

stretchwithme•6mo ago
Maybe dramatically increasing the supply of something lowers its price.
hdgvhicv•6mo ago
Lots of contrarians or simply wealthy people think increasing supply of housing does not cause this.
JumpCrisscross•6mo ago
> For the poorest the wages have essentially not increased for a long time right?

No. Nominal wages grew from ‘21 to ‘23, hitting all-time highs in ‘24 [1].

> It hasn’t even kept up with inflation

It did [2].

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M

[2] https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/

meetingthrower•6mo ago
Good data! Looking at the objective figure on the chart is sobering tho - $4k in income!(I think it may go up after taxes given tax credits?)
bandrami•6mo ago
That hasn't been true for a decade but nobody updated their mental models
renewiltord•6mo ago
Great example in how humans do this thing called “hallucination” where they just make up facts. I wouldn’t trust them to write code.
rr808•6mo ago
> Pay for the top 25 per cent of workers is up by 4.7 per cent in the year to June

Wait what? Anyone here getting 4.7% pay rises?

hiddencost•6mo ago
Got an offer from a competitor, used it to negotiate a 20% raise.
galleywest200•6mo ago
Fairly certain the OP was talking about an annual "cost of living" adjustment, and not job searching for a better offer.
CGamesPlay•6mo ago
Fairly certain the quoted statistic was talking about total results, not people who stayed at the same job.
tczMUFlmoNk•6mo ago
6% last year here.
Yeul•6mo ago
Ofcourse. That's what unions do. It's also why inflation is so damn nefarious because unions ALWAYS negotiate a pay rise to match it. Which as you can imagine gets very ugly fast.
pindab0ter•6mo ago
The wage-price spiral is heavily criticised: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage%E2%80%93price_spiral#Crit...
1vuio0pswjnm7•6mo ago
Works if/when archive.today is blocked

No Javascript required

    x=https://www.ft.com/content/cfb77a53-fef8-4382-b102-c217e0aa4b25
    echo url=$x|curl -K/dev/stdin -A "Mozilla/5.0 (Java) outbrain" > 1.htm
    firefox ./1.htm
ipnon•6mo ago
Why does this work for the FT site?
krackers•6mo ago
simply disabling JS seems to do it
einrealist•6mo ago
That's the myth of Trickle-down economics in action.
rester324•6mo ago
The same thing happens in other countries too BTW. Prime example is Japan, where prime minister Abe promoted this nice lie for many long years
Yeul•6mo ago
Curiously in the Netherlands poverty has gone down. But that's because the government has a pretty solid Robin Hood system going on: take from the rich give to the poor.

The amount of wealth that is redistributed is frankly insane.

okwhateverdude•6mo ago
I'm generally in favor. My taxes provide an amazing experience here. I have never seen the abject poverty that I've seen in other places (such as the US) here in NL. Great infrastructure, labor laws, culture and arts, etc. I worry less about break-ins and theft. All-in-all, the least worst place to live, by far.
quantified•6mo ago
If we in the USA got our money's worth from taxes, we feel rich. But we truly don't.
magentaworker•6mo ago
You got it, that huge army is not free, that militarized police is not free, the CIA is not free, FBI, NSA, and all that huge security related organizations that nobody else in the world has except maybe Israel and not at the same scale.
quantified•6mo ago
That too. We need our security organizations, there are lots of unpatriotic profiteers in there, we could get a lot more value for our moeny on those. (Littoral battleships? F-35s? Let's just get actual spent-uranium-tipped unicorns.) The way we do infrastructure and social services leaves a lot of room for improvement. I'd pay 50% tax gladly if I got half my income in value back.
SauciestGNU•6mo ago
Hell looking at the state of international conflict today I can't even be that upset about defense spending on principle, it's just that what we spend on is stupid and immoral. Instead of domestic oppression and foreign genocide we could be helping Europe and Taiwan fend off threats from rival great powers.
exceptione•6mo ago

  > The amount of wealth that is redistributed is frankly insane.
I would change that to: the amount of income tax quickly reaches idiotic heights. Capital taxes are generally low, and income taxes are for the 95% losers.

There is no plan to make the pie larger. The problem is the same as everywhere: a public brainwashed by neo-liberal nonsense voting against their own interests. Private gains and public losses.

philipallstar•6mo ago
It's a myth that people support something called trinkle-down economics.
refurb•6mo ago
But it’s not.

The error people make all the time is assuming these groups are static and always have the same people in them over time.

They don’t.

A great example were the people in the 0.1% percentile of income. Evil rich people!

Turns out people who end up in that group, only do so for a single year in their entire life.

Things like selling a company or getting a large windfall propels them into the 0.1%, then after that they fall back towards the median.

Same with the lowest income group. People move in and out that group each year.

mna_•6mo ago
Someone who inherits a couple million from a dead relative is not in the same league as Bezos who is rich enough to buy entire countries. Bezos is not coming down to the median any time soon. There are different leagues to this game.
amanaplanacanal•6mo ago
I suspect when people think of evil rich people, they are thinking if wealth, not annual income.
rester324•6mo ago
Sorry but I don't understand your comment. Are you sure you are responding to the right message?

The OP specifically called out trickle-down economics. Which is a myth, a false belief that somehow not taxing rich companies and not redistributing a country's wealth through taxes and other means, companies will do the right thing eventually, and they will raise the wages instead by their own incentives.

Which they never do, and only raise wages as a very last resort. They do instead coordinated wage suppression, lobbying governments to take away labor rights from the labor force, outsource their operations, set up new offshore offices to escape paying taxes, etc

So what does your comment to do with that? I think your message doesn't address any of that

refurb•6mo ago
That’s not what “trickle down economics” is. It’s basically the Laffer curve which argues that tax receipts can actually go down with higher taxes rates as tax’s can discourage growth if high enough.

Thus if you lower taxes, economics growth increases (overall tax receipts go up, not down).

mahogany•6mo ago
> It’s basically the Laffer curve which argues that tax receipts can actually go down with higher taxes rates as tax’s can discourage growth if high enough.

What you are describing is if we are on the right side of the curve. But is there any evidence that this is true?

When I read Sowell, someone who I imagine would be a champion for this cause, he cites the 1920s as his evidence that trickle-down works which doesn’t inspire confidence. If there is no modern evidence, why are we even entertaining this theory today?

rester324•6mo ago
I don't understand. Can you elaborate?

The Laffer curve simply shows the relationship between taxation and government revenue. It has nothing to do with the policies and the economic theories. In fact, there are two points on both sides of the Laffer curve's maxima where tax revenues are the same in theory. That's just a simple didactical tool, nothing more.

Saying that the Laffer curve is the trickle down economics is as bad as saying that visualizations of a binary tree are what we call algorithms and data structures.

refurb•6mo ago
The Laffer curve is the basis for what was called "trickle down economics".

The Reagan administration argued the US was the right side of the curve, and that lowering taxes would result in economic growth ("a rising tide raises all boats"). Economic growth benefits every worker.

rester324•6mo ago
OK. Thank you for the explanation. But then again, I think you are confusig things. So I am not convinced at all. But at least now I understand where you are coming from.
viraptor•6mo ago
> The error people make all the time is assuming these groups are static and always have the same people in them over time.

I believe people actually involved in being active against top percentiles understand the difference between ongoing millions of annual income and one off inheritance. Have you got a some reason to think otherwise? I mean it was "occupy wall street", not "occupy people visiting retirement homes".

refurb•6mo ago
That’s my point - the tax data says that people making millions each year are incredibly rare. Most people earning that kind of income get it in a once in a lifetime.
viraptor•6mo ago
Ok. And the criticism is not about them.
refurb•6mo ago
The criticism applies just as much to the bottom 0.1%. It’s not a static group.
nosianu•6mo ago
> The error people make all the time is assuming these groups are static and always have the same people in them over time.

Here is something I posted only a few days ago. It is Germany, but that point is certainly not much different from Anglo-Saxon countries.

It is a podcast, and in German too, but it is high quality and on one of the best stations in Germany (Deutschlandfunk's culture channel -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschlandfunk)

https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/eliten-seit-dem-kaiserr...

> Despite political upheavals over the past 150 years, Germany's elites have remained the same. Sociologist Michael Hartmann criticizes the fact that only four percent of the population shapes the country. He calls for a quota of working-class children for executive boards.

Yes individuals can rise and fall. For example, near the big turning points in German history the people in politics were renewed, after WWII people from the working class made it to the top posts. However, with increasing stability, over the last two decades even that group has become more and more of an insider club, and people from "lower classes" have a very low chance of rising to the tops. In the economy and when it comes to real wealth it is even worse. Connections and pre-existing wealth are a good predictor of where you will end up. You may have better luck with high-paying jobs, but they rarely lead to the top of the wealth pyramid and influence.

throw0101d•6mo ago
> Yes individuals can rise and fall.

One of the critiques of meritocracy:

> […] It’s wild that everyone is using “merit” and “meritocracy” as though it somehow avoids elitism, when in reality it’s a sneaky way to cement biases without the appearance of bias. Of course people should be judged on their skills and not their wealth. But, how’d they acquire those skills, and why would anyone assume the money didn’t help? Of course it’s a self-reinforcing system. […]

* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44571491

From the Wikipedia § Criticisms page:

> In his 2019 book The Meritocracy Trap, Daniel Markovits poses that meritocracy is responsible for the exacerbation of social stratification, to the detriment of much of the general population. He introduces the idea of "snowball inequality", a perpetually widening gap between elite workers and members of the middle class. While the elite obtain exclusive positions thanks to their wealth of demonstrated merit, they occupy jobs and oust middle class workers from the core of economic events. The elites use their high earnings to secure the best education for their own children, so that they may enter the world of work with a competitive advantage over those who did not have the same opportunities. Thus, the cycle continues with each generation.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meritocracy#Books

> In his book The Tyranny of Merit: What's Become of the Common Good?, the American political philosopher Michael Sandel argues that the meritocratic ideal has become a moral and political problem for contemporary Western societies. He contends that the meritocratic belief that personal success is solely based on individual merit and effort has led to a neglection of the common good, the erosion of solidarity, and the rise of inequality. Sandel's criticism concerns the widespread notion that those who achieve success deserve it because of their intelligence, talent and effort. Instead, he argues that this belief is flawed since it ignores the role of luck and external circumstances, such as social and external factors, which are beyond an individual's control.[91]

* Ibid

lotsofpulp•6mo ago
I do not see how this is criticism.

Everything in life involves hefty doses of luck. The alternative (i.e. without merit) seems obviously worse as it would be completely luck, no?

The complaint seems to want to lower the ceiling rather than raise the floor.

corimaith•6mo ago
Not necessarily, patronage systems tend to result in more stable, albeit conservative turnover of leaders.
throw0101d•6mo ago
> Everything in life involves hefty doses of luck. The alternative (i.e. without merit) seems obviously worse as it would be completely luck, no?

There is some level of luck / chance, but one can tilt the odds: more tutoring that allows for more practice to get better in the skill(s) that are 'merited', getting into schools with good alumni networks so one can 'luckily' bump into the right people with the resources you need.

Initially good luck can breed good luck in the second iteration/generation.

The meta-criticism (if you will) is that the initial batch of merited people can lock-in things for their (grand-)kids in future batches. There needs to be a way allow opportunities for future batches if their (grand-)parents from earlier batches were not 'merited' initially. Otherwise you basically get the ball rolling on an aristocracy.

redwood•6mo ago
Income sure but wealth is what matters and the wealthiest make their money from capital gains, not income
quantified•6mo ago
Why pick the top and bottom 0.1%? The top 3% and the bottom 40 are probably a less frothy cohort. What cited data would yoh find for those?
PeterStuer•6mo ago
Welcome to modern slavery. You wanted rights and strive for legal orgnization to improve your working conditions and pay? So we'll replace you with people that have no rights, have ruthless gangs supply and control them, and maybe, we will get you some handouts if you do not upset the new applecart.
potato3732842•6mo ago
The prevailing HN wisdom from, IDK 2010 or before, to 2020something was that inflation was good for the poors because their debt went away (laughable when considering interest rates on a lot of that debt but still).

Where are those people now? Why are they not all over these comments posting links rebutting the article?

Or if they no longer exist what made them change their minds?

rsanek•6mo ago
How do you measure prevailing wisdom? Is there some sort of data we can look at?
thuridas•6mo ago
The tax cuts for the rich will also probably mean that a lot of this money is going to buy real state as an investment rising the house prices.
jalapenos•6mo ago
The immigration crackdown and the tariffs will also mean effective reduced supply of foreign labor, and since their labor is what poor people sell, it will cause upward pressure on their earnings.
Eddy_Viscosity2•6mo ago
The tariff will cause, is causing in fact, increased prices. This will have a negative effect on their earnings.
pseudocomposer•6mo ago
Could you please define what you mean by “earnings” in this context?
Eddy_Viscosity2•6mo ago
I meant the buying power of their wages.
stvltvs•6mo ago
In the hospitality sector, tariffs (and harassment of tourists at the border) are reducing earnings by reducing tourism.
jmpman•6mo ago
Isn’t this fundamental down to landlords being able to extract all excess pay from the lowest paid workers? Minimum wage increases, simply get passed on to the landlord on higher rents.
RickJWagner•6mo ago
This article ignores the delta between wage growth and inflation.

Yes, wage growth was higher in 2022. But inflation was raging then. Today’s environment is actually better for low wage earners ( but far from ideal ).

more_corn•6mo ago
And the higher prices caused by tariffs which amount to a tax on imported goods. The things everyone buys are more expensive due to the president’s antics. And doing business is more expensive so businesses can’t afford to spend it on hiring and wage growth.