That the ratio is not as high as the raw S&P 500 indicates that a significant component of the S&P 500's high valuation is because investors consider the dollar to be worth less, and expect that it will be worth even less in the future. However, that the ratio is better than it was in say the 1970s suggests that investors believe there is still a significant amount of real productivity in American countries and it's not all inflation.
One key assumption here is that gold = hard money. If gold is considered a speculative asset like Bitcoin (again assuming Bitcoin is not hard money, which is uncertain in 2025), one which is traded only by a small number of enthusiasts, then the ratio may measure speculative fluctuation in the value of gold more than any useful quantity.
AnimalMuppet•1h ago
I'm not sure that's comforting...