With all due respect, what in the world are you on about?
Tesla's sales are down, revenue is down, profit is down, and Tesla continues to lose EV market share.
Eh, betting against Musk generally seems to be a losing proposition. Starlink alone would have given me faith in his abilities, what Tesla's done with Models 3 and Y and SpaceX with Falcon 9 gives me all the more reason to believe him. Yes, despite the absurd timelines, which I'm generally okay with. (Not OP)
I will never bet on Musk, but I’m also not dumb enough to bet against him, given TSLA’s stock growth. The board has set a wild target for him before, and he hit it.
It’s too easy to say “he’ll never achieve that!” from the comfort of an armchair internet comment.
Ok, if you really believe that, step up to the line and place your bets. Because if you don’t believe it enough to put money on it, you probably don’t believe it that much.
You literally echoed his reasons, not sure why you said this.
But leave it to the pedantic internet commenters to take issue with even a minor inconsistency.
I promise to do better next time, thank you for your feedback. I know I’ll make you proud one day, dad.
I'm not trying to insult you, but think about this. Musk has a reputation of actually delivering on the things he showcases- Cybertruck is real, it also failed, but he delivered it. Starlink is real, and it is winning spectacularly and probably has saved countless Ukrainian lives at this point. Yes FSD is not there yet, but I can pretty much guarantee you that it will be the first car that (is not a taxi) that has it.
And breaking apart my own statement slowly for you:
Tesla robot will be the most advanced consumer grade product ever made
^ product ^
will have vision, grip, communication,
ability to agentically think and perform physical tasks
^ Yes it is "a consumer grade product"
that will literally not have
real viable competition for a while
By comparison the Vegas Monorail cost 5x as much, took 1/3rd longer to build, and takes roughly a third of the passengers that the Boring tunnel does. This is a huge win for Las Vegas, and they continue to build out because it's worked out well for them.
So are modern subways. Cost is a major point tho, subways are designed to move waaaaay more than 30k people a day for much less, but costs of building are much higher.
This is only 1.7 miles and a novelty, I would not know If the differences hold for Tesla on other places or when scaling up. My suspicious is that it does not.
I also wonder that if you use the same tunnel they did but modify the cars to run by themselves using traditional techniques, would the operation get cheaper but the shortcomings be more glaring.
30k a day is a nearly a million a month and costs are low by comparison (no expensive subway cars etc).
That's like saying a car is slow because it's not a spaceship.
Tokyo has 37 million people so it's comical to compare it las vegas which has less than 700k.
Please go look at Encore station on Vegas Loop. And come back telling me it is below ground... And that is not only place. Overall it looks like right mess. Including very scalable solutions like single tunnels to some stations...
https://youtu.be/VPjODKUxV5g is where I'm coming from. The section of the system, where there's one tunnel, so the previous car has to clear the tunnel before the next vehicle can go, seems particularly stupid.
There are other stuff to do in the world both as far as technological advancement and leisure that could fill that time and man hours and produce a tangible ROI as opposed to "we are failing but at least we are trying"
By the same token the next goal set by Musk would be creating a wormhole if he hasn't said it already considering the amount of drugs that he takes.
Many people conflate the reasoning that is prevalent in SV for founders where they say "there is no price for failure". That is maybe true for the individual not when trillions of man hours and trillions of dollars are allocated.
They haven't hit your personal standard. Who cares? Investors are happy with their progress and at the end of the day that is more important than people like yourself who probably do t have skin in the game
It is one thing to fail independently say at your own startup, complete different thing is having choose between keeping your job or do something that you feel like it's a dead end or it is deceiving the public even tho you are not convinced just because the higher ups ordered so.
THat's how trillions of dollars and most importantly trillions of man hours are set on fire
When they lose of course people are gonna call them out regardless of the monetary purse that they were awarded for losing the fight.
And that is the way it should be considering you are dangling in front of people a huge improvement in their quality of life and then constantly failing to ship it.
For all its flaws Microsoft shipped Windows 95 after talking about it for 10 months before the launch. Not 10 years. And that was really a big quality of life improvement for basically billions of people.
Finally people don't care about what the marketcap of Tesla is or what Musk net worth is, those discussions happen among the fanboys and those who have false idols. People care about how a company can improve their life and despite all the fanfare, Tesla Motors have produced very little improvment through its history, and thye are not a startup either considering they are 2002-2025
|People care about how a company can improve their life and despite all the fanfare, Tesla Motors have produced very little improvment through its history,
This is just objectively not true. They produce some of the safest cars in the world, and have the best selling car in the world. Obviously those same people you are talking about disagree with you.
Tesla was founded in 2003, not 2002. Regardless they are still a startup compared to all the other US car manufacturers. Regardless though Tesla has done amazingly well, been very profitable while others are suffering, and despite major cap-ex are able to still make a profit.
Many would not agree but whatever , it was a paradigm shift that changed the world and improved the quality of life of billions of people.
The point of companies is to improve the quality of life of people, not pursue stuff that is hard for virtuoso technical bragging rights. That is something that theoretical physicists do. Actually if something is a low hanging fruit that can improve the quality of life of billions of people that should be pursured not the virtuoso technical mastership for the sake of technical virtuosity
> > This is just objectively not true. They produce some of the safest cars in the world, and have the best selling car in the world. Obviously those same people you are talking about disagree with you.
Put a car from 2003 and a Tesla from 2025 next to each other and they are 99.999% the same. As a matter of fact Tesla can't do many things that a 2003 car can do.
This test for example a Tesla would fail miserably : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRbV4pIdyc
This is the folly of people who think that a product which is 200 year old like the automobile can be revolutionized just because you can convince a bunch of loonies that it became a "tech company"
You are really off your rocker. Automobile's are 200 years old? They started in 1825? Nothing you say makes any sense.
If a start button can improve the life of billions then it should be pursued.
There are many thousands of "start button" alike solution which would improve the life of billions but the capital and the man hours are tied into fixations which are impossible or perpetually 20 years in the future.
What a religious comment.
Musk history is basically reinventing the wheel to fit political narratives not bona fide consumer need for a paradigm shift
Electric cars (reinventing the wheel to latch onto the left political narrative of climate change)
Twitter (reinventing the wheel to latch onto the right wing political narrative of censorship)
SpaceX (reinventing the wheel to latch onto the right/left political narrative of military domination)
The true paradigm shift that has a chance to change people's lives is AI and LLMs and Musk missed it completely, and spectacularly, like he was informed of everything that was being developed and still decided not to direct resources there up until ChatGPT shook the world, then he jumped on the bandwagon like everybody else who didn't have inside information
There is a much better chance of me fathering a child with Madonna than this
inertia (IMU), vision (CCD), skin pressure (not sure?), absolute offset/absolute rotation (optical encoders)
so now the question is: how do we convert this bag of signals into mimicking a human. this question has been asked for text already, and the answer is LLMs which can, at the very least, mimick humans pretty well.
if a humanoid can be made to mimick a cook, or a cleaner, or manual labor, be able to navigate human geometry (stairs, ramps, etc.) that is already huge.
i agree that it would be the most advanced consumer grade product - the only thing that might beat it, is a domestic nuclear reactor.
So far I've only seen these things in clean and dry environments, where they fold dry laundry, badly.
It looks like an absolute and expensive maintenance nightmare. Also, I'd worry about prompt injection or malfunction. Better carry an axe at all times:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/24/chess-robot-gr...
people will eat this shit up though, next 11 years every earnings report will say robots will be cooking at michelin star restaurants “soon”
For Tesla shareholders being the "first" with the idea has incredible value.
Obviously no chance in hell that Tesla hits that market cap legitimately just based on the performance of the past four years.
However, if the administration succeeds in killing the Fed’s independence and sending inflation to the moon, he might get that payday early! It will in be Zimbabwe dollars, but he will get that trillionaire title (along with many others).
Again.
The right is now split into a faction that rejects foreign interventions and wants to withdraw, if not total isolationist then something in that direction, and another faction. At the elite level this other faction is ascendant. The lesson they have drawn from US military failures from Vietnam to GWOT is different from the former faction. In their view the problem is that we were not aggressive enough, we were too constrained by overly legalistic and conservative rules of engagement and various ideological goals which polluted the prosecution of the wars and prevented us from "winning". They DO want a more cruel, more aggressive force posture. They admire and defend Israel in large part because they see it as a model of a force which really believes in "winning". A substantial portion of the voter base is attracted to this, enthused by the prospect of aggressive campaigns in Latin America with relaxed rules of engagement, and sees the renaming to Department of War as a "based" declaration of this doctrine. The country is moving more in this direction and the more isolationist (kind of "Buchananite") wing is getting purged again, but with some concessions made to them.
I am not sure the left has any answer to this right now because it has discredited itself with so many, especially losing a lot of younger men (those under 21 heavily favor Republicans), and generally the country may simply be moving in this direction. I think be clear eyed what you are facing.
It’s going to be a bad time real quick
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-orders-return-us-war-...
I thought you were joking. Wtf.
(Congress established and must approve any DoD changes)
Such actions are increasingly common and remain effectively unchallenged, stalled all the way to a compliant SCOTUS that falls in line rather than be ignored should they rule against.
Give US forces 48 hours of free reign in Venezuela and they will set the world on fire. Coupled with the right framing by the right reporters, Congress will give near unanimous approval for further escalation.
World War seems nigh inevitable at this stage. Better prepare to hunker down in that bomb shelter: refresh your stock of rations and gear up for the long haul.
That was the department's name for 150 years.. until doublespeak became popular in the 1940's
Given that market can remain crazy longer than I can remain solvent I’d rather be invested in it.
[1] https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/TSLA-Q2-...
They have already released multiple revolutionary products including the first real electric car and then the model y which is the best selling car in the world.
Tough economic situation for a car manufacturer. If you consider running a profitable company during a tough situation and unprecedented tariffs to be "driving into the ground" that's up to you.
Considering Ford and everyone else is absolutely getting clobbered in electric vehicles I do find that comical
Which products? EVs are a commodity. Self driving technology is better at Waymo, and in China, the latest Huawei version of self driving, installed in Avatar cars, is on par with Tesla’s and even better in some cases. What’s left? The Optimus robot? Unitree from China and Boston Dynamics (owned by Toyota), are ahead of Tesla. Not to mention the hundreds of startups in China working on the same thing, all using essentially the same transformer based architecture with only minor tweaks. There’s no moat this time. What Tesla still excels at is marketing and hype, but even that has its limits.
How many cars in the US is haiwei self driving in right now?
How many robots is Boston Dynamics selling?
You are arguing that vaporware is better than what Tesla has.
A willingness to ship at a much lower level of technical readiness and safety, and a reasonable chance of achieving enough regulatory capture to be allowed to do so.
Their only option is to desperately ride on, hoping to stay ahead of the tide until they find some higher ground. Who knows: dangling a giant carrot in front of their mule might help?
"Look, you'll miss out on trillions if you pull out now! Please, we're so close!"
“please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble please don’t notice the bubble”
Given that, the only real issue is the valuation targets - and that folks, that's an open invitation for stock manipulation for the master manipulator himself.
I have to conclude that members of the board are in full support of this behavior.
chillingeffect•5mo ago
nomel•5mo ago
blargey•5mo ago
*or at least the sort of operational milestones that make for the kind of pithy headlines that prop up the stock price
WaltPurvis•5mo ago
0cf8612b2e1e•5mo ago
chillingeffect•5mo ago
nomel•5mo ago