wow tell us something we didnt know

It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".

polymarket says 8%

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025

"the hard data"

Then perhaps they can just make a program that emits the exact probability at any time - and emit a chart like polymarket's

more likely bias.

Bears are getting desperate and wishing for a recession,eh?