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Amazon to Pay $2.5B in Prime Membership Settlement

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/technology/amazon-ftc-settlement.html
1•antimora•1m ago•0 comments

OpenIntro Statistics, Forth Edition [pdf]

https://www.biostat.jhsph.edu/~iruczins/teaching/books/2019.openintro.statistics.pdf
1•ibobev•2m ago•0 comments

Apple tries its hand at protein folding

https://github.com/apple/ml-simplefold
1•slyrus•4m ago•0 comments

Programmable antisense oligomers for phage functional genomics

https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09499-6
1•PaulHoule•4m ago•0 comments

The death of the corporate job. – by Alex McCann

https://thestillwandering.substack.com/p/the-death-of-the-corporate-job
1•bilsbie•5m ago•0 comments

There Are More Robots Working in China Than the Rest of the World Combined

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-factory-robots.html
1•marojejian•5m ago•1 comments

Amazon reaches $2.5B settlement with FTC over 'deceptive' Prime program

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/amazon-ftc-prime-settlement.html
1•antimora•6m ago•1 comments

To Understand AI, Watch How It Evolves

https://www.quantamagazine.org/to-understand-ai-watch-how-it-evolves-20250924/
1•sonabinu•6m ago•0 comments

Entropy: Origin of the Second Law of Thermodynamics [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7se7K0mnRaY
1•akshatjiwan•6m ago•0 comments

ChatControl: EU wants to scan all private messages, even in encrypted apps

https://metalhearf.fr/posts/chatcontrol-wants-your-private-messages/
3•Metalhearf•6m ago•0 comments

Anthropic Economic Index Report (AI Usage Index)

https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-september-2025-report
1•vegasbrianc•7m ago•0 comments

Gemini Robotics 1.5 brings AI agents into the physical world

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gemini-robotics-15-brings-ai-agents-into-the-physical-world/
1•meetpateltech•7m ago•0 comments

The Illusion of Readiness: Stress Testing Frontier Models on Medical Benchmarks

https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18234
1•mellosouls•8m ago•0 comments

Safe in the sandbox: security hardening for Cloudflare Workers

https://blog.cloudflare.com/safe-in-the-sandbox-security-hardening-for-cloudflare-workers/
2•dknecht•8m ago•0 comments

PsyArXiv Preprints – Quantifying Human-AI Synergy

https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/vbkmt_v1
1•JnBrymn•8m ago•0 comments

Buildings in S.F. face foreclosure after Veritas defaults on $652M debt

https://missionlocal.org/2025/09/sf-veritas-foreclosure-652-million-debt/
2•toomuchtodo•9m ago•1 comments

Social centralization and semantic collapse: Hyperbolic embeddings (2020)

https://www.santafe.edu/research/results/papers/7758-social-centralization-and-semantic-collapse-h
1•walterbell•9m ago•0 comments

Microsoft forced to make Win 10 extended security updates free in Europe

https://www.theverge.com/news/785544/microsoft-windows-10-extended-security-updates-free-europe-c...
2•_Microft•10m ago•0 comments

The Online Safety Act comes for livestreaming

https://www.openrightsgroup.org/blog/online-safety-act-comes-for-livestreaming/
2•Improvement•10m ago•0 comments

Will new U.S. H‑1B fee redraw the North American talent map?

https://nationalpost.com/news/will-trumps-new-visa-fee-be-a-boon-to-canada-and-redraw-the-north-a...
1•uladzislau•13m ago•1 comments

State of OSPOs and Open Source Management

https://www.linuxfoundation.org/research/ospo-2025
1•walterbell•13m ago•0 comments

Should Google Maps Switch to 3D Gaussian Splatting?

https://superspl.at/view?id=ca36efcc
1•ovenchips•13m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Nexty-directory – fast directory boilerplate

https://dofollow.tools
1•weijunext•14m ago•0 comments

Show HN: Crashed Out – an open library of AI failures

https://crashedout.ai/
2•mathusan_97•15m ago•0 comments

Japanese city passes two-hours-a-day smartphone usage ordinance

https://www.theregister.com/2025/09/24/japan_toyoake_smartphone_limitation_ordinance/
1•Brajeshwar•15m ago•1 comments

AI and Wikipedia have sent vulnerable languages into a doom spiral

https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/09/25/1124005/ai-wikipedia-vulnerable-languages-doom-spiral/
2•Brajeshwar•15m ago•0 comments

Unlock Your Destiny with Arcana Calculator

https://wuanguo.blogspot.com/2025/09/unlock-your-destiny-with-arcana.html
1•18272837023•15m ago•1 comments

AI-generated voices now indistinguishable from real human voices

https://techxplore.com/news/2025-09-ai-generated-voices-indistinguishable-real.html
1•Brajeshwar•15m ago•0 comments

That is not a Linux distro. It is a config

https://treejadey.com/post/distro-yapping
4•rexim•16m ago•1 comments

Sam Altman's AI empire will devour as much power as NYC and San Diego combined

https://fortune.com/2025/09/24/sam-altman-ai-empire-new-york-city-san-diego-scary/
1•gpi•17m ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

The Story of DOGE, as Told by Federal Workers

https://www.wired.com/story/oral-history-doge-federal-workers/
73•rendx•1h ago

Comments

mlinhares•1h ago
Utter and complete disgrace, I hope people don't forget what was done here.
tines•1h ago
You can't forget what you never knew. Nobody's paying attention and nobody cares. If you disagree, then explain how we got here in the first place.
foogazi•1h ago
It’s easier to destroy than to build

I see hollowing out of institutions but no one is building anything

miltonlost•1h ago
Remember: if anyone supported DOGE or still supports DOGE, they (both DOGE and their supporters) were not ever serious about the debt or government efficiency.
tester5555•1h ago
What about the savings https://doge.gov/savings? Are they a bad thing?
miltonlost•1h ago
I highly highly highly highly highly doubt that website and their data. It also doesn't mention how much was lost in those contracts because they were actually valuable science, health, diplomatic, or medicinal.

For instance, $3 billion saved from cancelling "Increasing Community Access to Testing, Treatment and Response (ICATT). The ICATT program provides access to no-cost COVID-19 testing in U.S. communities to people that are uninsured and no-cost COVID-19 vaccines to people that are underinsured and uninsured."

That is shortsighted, evil, inefficient (better to keep pandemics from not happening), and idiotic to cancel.

Again, anyone supporting DOGE is not a serious thinker or actually cares about what is "waste"

apical_dendrite•1h ago
You're joking right?

You realize that website has become a national laughing stock because they keep making multibillion dollar errors?

[edit] to explain further - there were lots of different errors, but a big one is that many contracts have high max values because they can't always predict how much they'll need to spend over ten years but they want a contract in place in case they need to spend money quickly (say for spare parts). So in many cases the number DOGE says they cut was just a placeholder, not an actual reflection of money that was ever going to be spent. So if you have a contract for spare parts for MRI machines for VA hospitals with a max value of, say, $1B over ten years, but you actually spend $100M over ten years, then DOGE will say they saved $1B, when actually they will have only saved $100M. That does not include the downstream effects of not having a contract for spare parts for MRI machines. If the MRI machines have more downtime, then the VA has to spend more money sending patients elsewhere, but DOGE has no way to account for that in their wall of receipts.

tester5555•1h ago
Let's assume it is correct, are the savings a bad thing?
miltonlost•1h ago
How about you give a position instead of asinine "just asking" questions? Because you give strong troll vibes otherwise
recursive•1h ago
The savings are good, assuming they're correct. The correctness part seems to be in question. Also, I don't know whether the hypothetical benefit is more or less than the things that were being paid for.
altruios•54m ago
Cutting costs are not inherently good.

Junk food can be cheaper than healthy food, it's not good to save on money now at the cost of spending thousands on medical care and insulin in the future.

Or to paraphrase Terry Pratchett: "boots at $10 dollars that last a month are more expensive than $50 dollar boots that last a year" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boots_theory

It's the difference between being cheap and being frugal...

There's also the allegation that Elon's Doge cuts were to prevent various agencies from pursuing legal action against him.

mikestew•1h ago
Let’s assume a frog has wings…now he doesn’t bump his ass when he hops!
justinrubek•1h ago
Something that doesn't exist can't be a bad thing.
vel0city•1h ago
Savings isn't inherently a good thing. I can save a lot of money if I stop paying my mortgage. I can save money if I stop buying my meds. I can save money if I stop paying my utility bills. Things won't go well for me in the end though.

If we as a society choose to stop investing in ourselves, we'll have bad outcomes in the end.

Y-bar•1h ago
If I stop paying rent for my apartment and interest for my loans I will make significant savings. For a few months, until the repo man shows up.

Those "savings", if they are correct (serious doubts have been raised about that) looks to me like a set of short-term gains for long-term pains.

lesuorac•58m ago
I don't think that's an accurate analogy.

It's like if I stop commuting by car to work every day and rent a helicopter. I'm going to save a ton of money by selling the car and not buying gasoline. Of course I spent a ton of money with the helicopter method but we're not going to list _new_ expenses on the website are we?

elevation•36m ago
The US spends twice what it collects in taxes, and has been doing so for so long that its ability to service its debts is mathematically jeopardized.

Spending massively more than you make is just fine, until the repo man shows up.

vel0city•24m ago
Sounds like maybe we should also increase revenues instead of also cutting those then, right?
cosmic_cheese•59m ago
It’s not necessarily that clean cut. Money saved today can easily be many times as much lost further down the road when factoring in long tail effects, and none of the cuts were given any such consideration. Even if the numbers were correct as of the time of posting, they could ultimately end up contributing to the deficit in the long run.
mattkrause•27m ago
Exactly! A lot (most?) of this spending has very obvious multiplier effects.

Tax enforcement is a trivial and almost immediate example. Spending $X on compliance seems to recover about $5X in evaded taxes. On top of that, there are knock-on effects: if it becomes easier to cheat on your taxes, more people may cheat.

Vaccines and other forms of preventative healthcare fall into this bucket too. Even completely ignoring the moral aspect of letting people (mostly kids!) fall unnecessarily ill, it often makes economic sense to pay a little bit to avoid having to potentially pay much more down the road. One ER visit can cover a lot of flu or COVID vaccines; a few nights in the ICU even more.

Research grants are maybe less obvious, but they have a huge multiplier too: the human genome project had something like a $120x return(!). This is not just big breakthroughs, but also all the work along the way. A lot of grant money goes to training people or supports small businesses making their equipment. I saw an interesting article claiming that the Air Force essentially bootstrapped the use of more exotic materials: military contracts covered the initial investment in (e.g.,) machinery for working with titanium, and once those fixed costs are covered, it was feasible to dip a toe into the consumer space and see if there's demand. Thus, titanium golf drivers.

exe34•59m ago
Let's assume they are made up (a very conservative assumption, given there's been so much evidence for it already) - is making up numbers good for the economy?
actionfromafar•4m ago
Also, if we are going to make up numbers, be more bold. Trump got 17 trillion dollars from foreigners to spend in the US. That's more like it!
amluto•56m ago
I wouldn’t be surprised if the “grant cancellations” alone cost dramatically more (measured as NPV today of lost future tax revenue) than the entire reported DOGE savings.
mattkrause•20m ago
Here's a report[1] arguing that $1 spent on an NIH grant generates $2.56 of economic activity---and these grants largely aren't even meant to have short-term payouts. Block grants for (e.g.,) preventative care or education probably have huge returns too: the ER and prison are expensive!

[1] https://www.unitedformedicalresearch.org/annual-economic-rep...

kube-system•15m ago
We don't have enough information to determine that, in many cases. Because it depends on what the costs of those cuts will be. DOGE is in many cases cutting things without doing a proper impact analysis.

There are many documented instances of DOGE cutting things that they later realized were needed -- leading to unnecessary switching costs and other consequential costs.

Second: deferring costs in the short term are often a bad choice that can cause higher costs over the long term.

Third: some cuts can exchange monetary costs for non-monetary costs. These will make a number look good but can cause impacts that are bad.

mempko•10m ago
Every transaction has two parties. If I save, you lose income. If you save, I lose income. Well, if the government saves, the private citizens LOSE INCOME. Read about the Accounting Identity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accounting_identity

For these savings to be good, they need to be good for everyone. And that's not clear.

GuinansEyebrows•1h ago
Alice laughed. 'There's no use trying,' she said. 'One can't believe impossible things.'

'I daresay you haven't had much practice,' said the Queen. 'When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.'

shadowgovt•1h ago
Without knowing the details of the thirteen thousand contracts cancelled, we don't know.

As a thought experiment ad absurdum, we can save 100% of the cost of government by shutting down the entire government.

... but then what happens next? This trivial exercise demonstrates how on-the-surface positive metrics can hide costs that either aren't being tracked at all or aren't tracked here.

On this topic: some fascinating research recently out of Yale https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/study-reveals-stark-diffe... investigated the known discrepancy in life expectancy in the American South vs. other states. Their conclusion is that likeliest cause is weather. The reason it didn't show up is that metrics weren't tracking the secondary effects of a region being smashed by one or two hurricanes a year; immediate death tolls are in the low dozens and wouldn't move the needle, but the shared cost of infrastructure rebuilding puts local and state governments perpetually in a reactionary mode, which means they set up welfare programs that they can never fund. It's those on-paper-existing but perpetually-emergency-drained programs that are likely accounting for the difference in life expectancy; it's not about dying in a hurricane, it's about a mother three years down the line losing her newborn to preventable illness that wasn't caught in time because she can't afford pediatric care and her county doesn't have enough money to subsidize it, they're too busy rebuilding all the bridges that got torn in half by floodwaters before that newborn was even conceived.

throwaway0123_5•57m ago
If the program being cut is valuable, I would say absolutely. Ignoring that this website is obviously going to have massive bias, a huge amount of the savings listed are for programs I would generally support: Health services, health research, USAID (we saved a billion dollars on "polio immunization," yay), environmental research, education, etc. Maybe the specific contracts cut were wasteful, but they certainly don't provide enough information to determine that and I'm not going to assume the cuts were good because "money saved."

Also, the savings are pretty minor overall. If we trust the website, we get $1.3k saved per taxpayer. The vast majority of the programs cut would have to be completely useless for me to think it is worth it to save $1.3k.

ascagnel_•27m ago
Also, "waste" doesn't have a singular definition: a contract with Honeywell (just picking a big government contractor at random) with the DOD/DOW to develop a new weapon could easily be seen as wasteful by one taxpayer, while another could see a different contract with Honeywell with the DOE or EPA to develop green energy tech as equally valid waste. The solution to this isn't to have one person run roughshod over already-signed contracts and commitments; the fix is for Congress either to not enter into them in the first place, or to use the CRA to override an agency's decision.
nxobject•56m ago
Yes – we're still going to end up with deficits due to tax cuts. We may as well actually get things done while doing so, and be honest to ourselves about it.
throw0101d•42m ago
> What about the savings https://doge.gov/savings? Are they a bad thing?

Cost versus value. E.g, what kind of soft power did the US lose when they shredded USAID?

What kinds of medical research will not be done because of cuts to NIH:

* https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nih-layoffs-budget-cuts-medical...

What kind of tax revenue will be lost because the IRS is even more short-staffed and cannot investigate fraud:

* https://apnews.com/article/irs-doge-layoffs-tax-season-0659e...

For a comparison of DOGE's falsifiable/verifiable claims and reality see:

* https://www.slowboring.com/p/yes-doge-failed-and-it-matters

sejje•38m ago
That's a good argument to have about whether we should go after the savings or not. But it sounds like you agree they're savings.
gurleen_s•6m ago
Obviously they’re savings, but in the same way that cutting your arm off will make you weigh less. That’s not a useful topic to discuss.
actionfromafar•38m ago
Que a lot of comments about how soft power is a not even a thing... sigh
ChocolateGod•32m ago
Europe spent the last few decades focussing on being a soft power, yet that did nothing to stop Russia, wars in the middle east or the ongoing migrant crisis.
slightwinder•11m ago
It stopped Russia and other conflicts for the last decades... It's still preserving peace in Europe.

But there is no perfect solution. There always will be a maniac doing stupid shit because their personal benefit is more valuable for them than the greater good of everyone else. We are now in such a phase again, where all kind of maniacs have become loose, wasting societies for fun and giggles... We will have what we will make of it.

margalabargala•39m ago
Considering that every independent estimate puts the money saved at slower to $90M than $200B, yes, running around thinking you have 5 orders of magnitude more effect than you do is a bad thing.

Add to that that most of the things cut, for example weather forecasting, has returns to the economy of several times what is spent on it, and the damage to the economy is much larger than any savings.

slightwinder•19m ago
Saving a dime today, to waste a dollar tomorrow, is not good.

DOGE has prominently trading long-term-benefits for short-term-gains. Some are already showing today, but many will show their harm in years and decades, too late to fix it, and when it will cost significant more to handle them.

trymas•17m ago
I am not going to look for the information again, but this list was debunked many times in my news feed.

i.e. doge says they saved some insane amount of money for some program, but most importantly, for many cases:

- most of the money have been paid already, so almost nothing is saved (imagine 5 year program for 10B, but 4 years have passed, 8B has been paid and now it will not be finished);

- program brings more business than it costs;

- or both;

It grinds my gears when musk, trump and the like bring their “run government as a business” attitude. Government is a “meta-business”.

It takes care of things that businesses won’t. Roads, trains, growing and educating new generation of workers and businessmen, army, etc.

thiel’s technofascist libertarian dystopian city states will crumble from lack of infrastructure or if not - more powerful states (China?) will eat them up one by one.

mempko•14m ago
I can look at my budget and say, "Wow I spend a lot on coffee, better stop". Are these savings a good or bad thing? You have to remember every transaction has two parties. If I stop buying coffee, maybe it's better for me, but it's not better for the coffee shops, and the coffee producers. Every transaction has two parties. So who are the parties on the receiving end of government spending? Well, it's the private sector. It's you and me.

To decide if it's a good thing you need to see if stopping the spending benefits BOTH parties.

ZeroGravitas•5m ago
You're just proving his point.

How are you unaware of the multiple controversies about the basic factual nature of the claimed numbers. Never mind the lack of any viable strategy.

codexb•2m ago
They were, but the actual cuts needed (to entitlements) are politically impossible to make.
GuinansEyebrows•1h ago
https://archive.is/TiaSF
exe34•57m ago
The whole point of Doge was to fire the agencies that were investigating all of Musk's companies that were breaking laws. That and getting rid of competent people who might stand up to the orangefuhrer.
corralal•37m ago
Do you have an example of a cut to something that was investigating Musk? I'm not saying you're wrong - I have no clue and I'm truly curious.
trymas•26m ago
One internet search away: https://qz.com/elon-musk-doge-nhtsa-tesla-neuralink-spacex-f...
parineum•19m ago
Which one was "investigating" musk?
dfe•6m ago
It is upsetting to me that people have so much trouble sifting fact from opinion or narrative.

The fact is that DOGE made cuts to NHTSA. It is also a fact that DOGE made cuts to a bunch of agencies, not just ones related to something Elon was doing.

There isn’t even any evidence that DOGE was more aggressive about cutting things related to Elon vs other government waste.

Instead, all we have is an opinion by a reporter at an organization with a known bias for promoting the increase of government. The opinion is that the reason is to cut people specifically going after Elon.

And to be clear I gave no opinion on what Elon did or didn’t do. My problem is I’m tired of living in a world where everyone assumes that anyone not in 100% agreement with their policies must of course be doing something nefarious.

What if instead of repeating everyone know Elon is crazy and everyone knows Elon is corrupt and everyone knows this and that… what if we actually tried to analyze it rationally and sift through the news stories looking at the things that are definitely factually true vs. the authors opinions we happen to like because we want to imagine some people are awful and others are saints.

tremon•24m ago
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trum...
c420•11m ago
It's impossible to prove intent. With the exception of the NHTSA, the following agencies were gutted, each whose jurisdiction covered his business interests. In the case of the NHTSA, about half of the team that oversees autonomous vehicle safely was let go [1].

NHTSA, CFPB, DoT (FAA), DoE

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/21/musk-doge...

1121redblackgo•31m ago
I think the self-dealing and getting rid of oversight was a very welcome bonus, but I think they genuinely thought they were the good guys coming to clean up government. Their methods were tragically ineffective as every serious person predicted.

We have fiscal issues, clearly, and they thought they were doing good work, but it was an absolute failure and many of the issues still remain, and were exacerbated by what DOGE did.

That’s what C- brains bring to a project.

Finnucane•11m ago
In other words, their heads were so far up their own asses they couldn't distinguish between self-dealing and public good.
brandonb•57m ago
For those curious about a more thoughtful model of government reform--which is still sorely needed--the original US Digital Service team just published a bunch of interviews: https://usdigitalserviceorigins.org/interviews/
nxobject•53m ago
I hope a similar oral history will be done for 18F – it ran very, very lean.
Covzire•40m ago
What's certainly not going away is that Government waste and bloat is a home-run bipartisan issue where the size of the government has vastly and consistently outgrown the private sector in both times of feast and famine.

Everyone left and right instinctively knows this is, that it's a problem that they're both taxed directly for and (I hope) many people know they're also indirectly paying for it through inflation caused by government borrowing beyond their actual tax income.

DOGE may not be the right answer, but it's the first actual reduction in spending in my lifetime.

nxobject•36m ago
> they're also indirectly paying for it through inflation caused by government borrowing beyond their actual tax income.

Don't worry – unless we stop giving out tax cuts as well, we'll still be running deficits until Social Security and Medicare become insolvent. For the average taxpayer, it's about fiscal sustainability - "smaller government" may as well be a feel-good abstraction compared to that.

ChocolateGod•34m ago
People are having a tough period where they think their government doesn't care about them, to see so much wastage ignites the hard feelings that the "elite" has prioritised others than their own people.

I believe that is the reason why DOGE was supported by Trump, but I do think something like DOGE is needed but perhaps for better and less egotistical reasons.

actionfromafar•7m ago
And there was.
amanaplanacanal•29m ago
Wait, has there actually been a reduction in federal spending in total? Or just in specific agencies?
kube-system•22m ago
No, federal spending is up by $376 billion.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...

lend000•27m ago
It was the only thing to be optimistic about in this administration, but it sure didn't last long. We should all know that this was the last attempt that had a chance of addressing the national debt -- the only other way out is extreme inflation.
matteotom•27m ago
What metric are you looking at when you say "the size of government has vastly and consistently outgrown the private sector" - AFAICT, excluding 2020 and 2021 (which I think is reasonable), the federal budget has been between 17% and 25% of GDP for the past 50 years (where the fluctuations are more a function of variable GDP).

The number of federal government employees has also remained mostly flat for the past 50 years (and IIRC most growth in overall public sector employment comes from schools).

jhedwards•26m ago
I don't know if this was in your lifetime, but Bill Clinton reduced government spending through the National Performance Review. Not only did he do it, but he did it in a planned and strategic way, that included an initial phase of research, followed by education and recommendations, which were send to congress for approval.

You'll notice that this approach is consistent with basic project planning and execution principles, and follows the principles of government set out by our constitution. In contrast, DOGE sidestepped the legal and administrative principles of the government, which led to cuts followed by retractions, which are ultimately more costly and wasteful.

Reference: https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/npr/library/papers/bkgrd/bri...

guywithahat•23m ago
The most incredible piece of logical gymnastics I remember from civics/history class in high school was that during economic downturns, we need government to spend more to help people, and during economic growth we of course also need more government to manage all the new growth. At no point do we cut the spending we've added, because it would always hurt those who have jobs.

People like to criticize DOGE for going after smaller amounts (like hundreds of millions instead of tens of billions) but those are still hundreds of millions that could be put elsewhere, or even returned to the taxpayer or put towards federal debt. The biggest concern with DOGE is that much of the spending is just going to come right back during the next election cycle

actionfromafar•1m ago
Another incredible thing you maybe didn't study in civics class is that the US had an "exorbitant privilege" it's now pissing away. The ability to borrow at extremely low rates from the rest of the world, because the US was so productive. We will miss it when it's gone.
shepardrtc•21m ago
> DOGE may not be the right answer, but it's the first actual reduction in spending in my lifetime

On what timeline? The week of the first round of RIFs? The first month?

I assure you, as someone who works with in the space where DOGE has played, it will NOT be a reduction in costs in the long run. In fact, costs will go up because of the indiscriminate nature of "cost reduction". When the only people with knowledge of a system are removed, the remaining people cannot run it - no matter what AI they are given. At that point, you have to either hire back the people you fired, with a serious delay of important work, or you stumble for years until it can be figured out at the cost of delays, protests, lawsuits, whatever.

Considering firing everyone a reduction in costs is a shallow, short-term view.

shermantanktop•21m ago
> Everyone left and right instinctively knows this

That’s the first sign that a large group of people are going to something thoughtless and destructive.

Looking around at actual data from both gov and think tank sources, this quote from Pew is a good summary: “While the number of federal workers has grown over time, their share of the civilian workforce has generally held steady in recent years.”

But that’s not the whole story. The postal service is shrinking, the vast majority of those federal employees work for the VA, the amount of funding being directed by the federal employees has grown (because of budget growth), federal regulations touch more private sector activity than in the past, and state and local governments employ significantly more people than they used to.

DOGE’s focus on headcount was wrongheaded because the number of federal employees is not the problem. The problem is Congress (budgets and laws) and states.

Conventional wisdom is that federal payroll growth is massive, and that is just wrong.