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The effect of H-1B quota on employment and selection of foreign-born labor (2018)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.06.010
36•johntfella•2h ago

Comments

ludicrousdispla•1h ago
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w23902/w239...
toonewbie•1h ago
The most counterintuitive finding: cutting H-1B quotas didn't help American workers, but it did make the remaining H-1B pool less innovative. Employment losses were heaviest at both the lowest AND highest wage levels, filtering out the most exceptional talent while concentrating visas among mid-skill workers and Indian-born computer workers due to network effects.

Classic unintended consequence -- the policy achieved neither goal. Opponents didn't get more jobs for Americans, supporters lost the highest-impact innovators who drive patents and startups.

klipt•43m ago
Were the most innovative people actually "lost" or did they just switch to something like the O1 Visa which isn't subject to quota, and highly innovative people should qualify for?
bubblethink•39m ago
O-1 is a useless visa. Nobody switches to it or uses it by choice. You only use it if you can't use H-1B.
toonewbie•10m ago
I would guess that they found different ways to stay and work. I know that some companies send people to their office abroad (e.g., Canada or Europe) until there's a workaround by doing the green card process or applying H1B until it works out.

I did not end up using it, but I have personally "lost" the H1B lottery 3 times. I was also subject to the option above at some point.

chii•33m ago
drafting specific, targeted policies in the hopes of achieving a targeted outcome (without any unintended consequences) is very difficult - it's almost as if human minds are not smart enough to consider all possible outcomes, and all possible ramifications!

That's why i dislike gov't intervention - in most cases, these policies are drafted by vested interests, to the exclusion of some other group (who often then bear the brunt of the externalized cost of such a policy).

bjornsing•21m ago
I doubt it was due to network effects. I’m probably one of those top quartile potential H1-B holders that never applied. My main reason for not applying is that the random nature of the lottery reduces the RoI on finding a US job so much that it becomes rational to stay in Sweden and focus on local / remote consulting opportunities. As I understand it the way those Indian IT firms get around that is that they hire locally in India and send in applications for more staff than they want visas for. So they can get around the lottery dynamics through collective action, something I can’t do.
bubblethink•13m ago
That used to be a common abuse vector, but that loophole was fixed last year. Apps are deduped now (1 person, 1 app). It's still a lottery that is oversubscribed by something like 3x.
CyberMacGyver•19m ago
I am sure people understand that H-1B issues are just red herring. Outsourcing is the real issue that needs to be talked more.
ares623•8m ago
Everything is a red herring to billionaires and corporations not being taxed/given unchecked power.
bubblethink•7m ago
Half the people complain about H-1B and the other half complain about outsourcing. Neither of them makes sense to me, but the outsourcing angle even less so. It's just labor cost arbitrage for knowledge work. And soon that arbitrage opportunity will perhaps shift from humans to llms. What is the issue with that?

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