> Models will be able to autonomously work for full days (8 working hours) by mid-2026. At least one model will match the performance of human experts across many industries before the end of 2026.
> By the end of 2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks.
First commandment of tech hype: the pivotal, groundbreaking singularity is always just 1-2 years away.
I mean seriously, why is that? Even when people like OP try to be principled and use seemingly objective evaluation data, they find that the BIG big thing is 1-2 years away.
Self driving cars? 1-2 years away.
AR glasses replacing phones? 1-2 years away.
All of us living our life in the metaverse? 1-2 years away.
Again, I have to commend OP on putting in the work with the serious graphs, but there’s something more at play here.
Is it purely a matter of data cherry picking? Is it the unknowns unknowns leading to the data driven approaches being completely blind to their medium/long term limitations?
I have issues with "human performance" as single data point in times where education keeps to excel in some countries and degrades in others.
How far away are we from saying, better than "X percent of humans" ?
loloquwowndueo•12m ago