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Why Circular AI Deals Among OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD Are Raising Eyebrows

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/the-circular-openai-nvidia-and-amd-deals-raising-fears-of-a-new-tech-bubble
54•1vuio0pswjnm7•2h ago

Comments

1vuio0pswjnm7•2h ago
"AI companies say these kinds of large, reciprocal, and sometimes overlapping deals are what's needed to meet growing demand for their tech. But as more and more money gets invested in the space these unorthodox business arrangements are also raising flags for industry analysts who are starting to wonder: Is the trillion-dollar AI market being propped up by the industry itself?"
nkrisc•30m ago
From the outside: sure looks like. Can’t wait to find out if I’m right or wrong.
nextworddev•1h ago
Just enjoy it if you can’t avoid it
mgh2•1h ago
Related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45509898
barbarr•53m ago
This and stock buybacks make me question company valuations
ctkhn•48m ago
Stock buyback isn't a total scam as it seems, but it does mean "we can't figure out any productive use case for this cash in advancing R&D or scaling our business anymore" which is still pretty worrying
redwood•43m ago
Stock buyback is effectively just a dividend with a different tax implication: reducing the number of shares in circulation raises the ownership stake of the remaining shares
danans•2m ago
> Stock buyback is effectively just a dividend with a different tax implication

Not just different, it specifically a lower tax rate assuming that the stockholder has held long enough to use the long term capital gains tax rate (which lower than the dividend tax rate).

halperter•52m ago
https://archive.is/E7nGC
Angostura•42m ago
This reminds me of around 2002 when I wrote an article looking at how all the web behemoths at the time were claiming profitability through ad sales, but actually the vast majority of ads were from one web behemoth advertising on an other's site and vice versa.
slaterbug•13m ago
Do you happen to have a copy of that article? I’d love to read it.
gruez•38m ago
For an interesting interpretation of the recent AMD-OpenAI deal, see Matt Levine's column from a few days ago:

> OpenAI: We would like six gigawatts worth of your chips to do inference.

> AMD: Terrific. That will be $78 billion. How would you like to pay?

> OpenAI: Well, we were thinking that we would announce the deal, and that would add $78 billion to the value of your company, which should cover it.

> AMD: …

> OpenAI: …

> AMD: No I’m pretty sure you have to pay for the chips.

> OpenAI: Why?

> AMD: I dunno, just seems wrong not to.

> OpenAI: Okay. Why don’t we pay you cash for the value of the chips, and you give us back stock, and when we announce the deal the stock will go up and we’ll get our $78 billion back.

> AMD: Yeah I guess that works though I feel like we should get some of the value?

> OpenAI: Okay you can have half. You give us stock worth like $35 billion and you keep the rest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-10-06/ope...

https://archive.is/tS5sy

ctkhn•33m ago
Levine is fantastic on all sorts of bizarre financial dealings. Money Stuff is such a good daily read even though I don't work in a financial job
credit_guy•37m ago
I don't understand why they are calling these deals circular. OpenAI is buying Nvidia and AMD chips. Oracle is also buying Nvidia chips. OpenAI is buying datacenters from Oracle, which will be powered by the chips Oracle buys from Nvidia. This is one directional: hardware makers (Nvidia and AMD) sell either to datacenter makers (Oracle), or to AI firms (like OpenAI). That's it. No circular deals.

But "circular deals" has such a nice ring to it, that you hear it everywhere nowadays. People are just hungry for negative soundbites.

mrbungie•33m ago
https://openai.com/es-419/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partne...

OpenAI => nVidia => OpenAI. That's pretty circular.

schumpeter•23m ago
Nvidia is also investing hundreds of billions in OpenAI.
credit_guy•6m ago
Yes. OpenAI is also investing in AMD. This was discussed yesterday on HN, following some very good explanation by Matt Levine at Bloomberg. This is a way for one party to reduce some risk, by enjoying some upside in the equity of the counterparty.

But this is not circular. Circular would be if I sell you an apple worth $0.25 for $2.00, and then you sell it back to me for $2.00, or other similar amount, and I get to mark all the apples in my inventory at $2.00 and show a huge profit (on paper). One can create variations of this blatant deal. Like I sell you some rubber for 10 times the market price, you make a balloon and then I buy the balloon for 10 times the market price. I may not have other balloons in my inventory, but plenty of rubber, and I show some nice profit. One can imagine other, fancier deals.

But in the case of AMD and NVidia, and OpenAI and Oracle, the direction is clear. OpenAI has a clear need for compute. They can buy it directly from NVidia and AMD, or indirectly from Oracle. They can buy it with hard cash (of which they don't have that much), or with their own equity, or some form of deal that offers the seller an upside in OpenAI's equity.

But there is not back and forth buying of the same item, or of rubber/balloons. All the deals seem legit. Is it possible that all the future compute will not be needed, because the AI craze will fizzle. It is, lots of things are possible. But that's general business risk.

throw234234234•22m ago
In the end with most of these deals its the shareholders paying through market cap dilution. Given the current market structure (the big companies are tech companies) there's PLENTY of capital for OpenAI to fund their expansion.

They've discovered a cheat code IMO. Instead of using and raising money themselves, use their reputation/popularity and use their suppliers market caps (e.g. NVIDIA, AMD, etc). The deal makes sense as long as the value projected to be added (i.e. via efficiency gains, loss of jobs, changing society, etc) exceeds the capital dilution for the supplier; they use their equity but the leftover equity value increase makes up for it.

Given all the passive investing, and funds invested in the top tech companies this is a VERY large pool of capital. It however increases leverage if the value doesn't materialise.

striking•14m ago
I prefer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-07/openai-s-... which shows the circularity in the deals.

A stronger counterpoint to the circular deals suggestion is at the end of the article, which reads

> Michael Intrator, CoreWeave’s CEO, acknowledged the circular financing worries in a recent interview with Bloomberg News, but said the public concerns will dissipate as more businesses adopt AI.

> “When Microsoft comes to us to buy infrastructure to deliver to its clients who are consuming 365 or Copilot, I don't care what the narrative is about circular financing,” Intrator said. “They have end users that are consuming it.”

It's on you to decide then if end users are actually getting value / paying for AI products.

chasd00•9m ago
Yeah I spoke to my wife a few min ago about these deals and other indicators of a bubble. We’re updating our 401k’s and the old college fund brokerage account in the morning and have agreed to not make any additional changes until Jan 2027. Going to sit out a year and see what happens.
deadbabe•8m ago
All I want to know is, should we be investing into these companies as a result of these deals? Or should we be moving out of these positions.

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