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UA 1093

https://windbornesystems.com/blog/ua-1093
140•c420•2h ago
CEO Tweet: https://twitter.com/johndeanl/status/1980462264974209292

Comments

TechSquidTV•2h ago
Huh, I just saw the Scott Manly video where he called out a comment of someone mentioning a weather balloon. Props to that guy.
JCM9•1h ago
Interesting. The “big sky” theory has its limits.

Curious too to learn more about what data, if any, is shared with ATC on the location of these balloons. Airspace is regularly blocked off for rockets and other use, but for many weather balloons the theory is 1) the sky is big, and 2) designs are meant to be that a strike with an aircraft wouldn’t cause significant damage. If this was an impact with a balloon payload then “2” looks problematic.

consp•1h ago
Isn't this pure statistics? The big sky isn't as big since planes always follow certain patterns and so do weather balloons (because wind also has patterns). Now someone needs to do some black magic with that model and calculate the arrival time distribution of accidents and you get to see if this is an outlier or not.
barbazoo•1h ago
> planes always follow certain patterns

At any particular and above a certain flight level maybe.

pcthrowaway•1h ago
The birthday paradox seems relevant here as well: With 23 people, your chance of having a "collision" in birthdays is over 50%. With more objects in the sky, the chance of collision is likely greater than one would assume given the space they have to occupy.
pastel8739•38m ago
Though the birthday paradox is concerned with self-collisions, I think since these are explicitly collisions with other objects it feels less paradoxical to compute
celeritascelery•1h ago
In hindsight, the fact that it was probably a balloon and not space debris makes a lot of sense. Something falling from space would only spend a few seconds at most in the zone where airplanes cruise but a weather balloon would be there significantly longer. Makes the chance of collisions much higher.
blackcatsec•1h ago
I mean, it also makes sense considering space debris would have hit that plane with significantly more force than a busted window.
throwaway48476•53m ago
There are thousands of flights every day for decades. There's going to be a collision at some point.
modeless•1h ago
> The system is designed to not pose a risk to human life in the worst case event of a collision. This is what the FAA 101 and ICAO weight limits are for. And indeed, there were no serious injuries and no depressurization event to my knowledge as a result of the collision.

This seems close to a worst case scenario for this failure mode, and everyone is still OK. I consider that good engineering.

blackcatsec•1h ago
A reminder for those in the back, government regulation made this safe (FAA limits).

And yes, this is good engineering, but through decades of learning crowdfunded with tax dollars.

artursapek•1h ago
Anyone arguing against government regulation as a whole is completely delusional. Companies can't be trusted to regulate themselves.
baggy_trough•46m ago
The problem is we don't have a garbage collection method to get rid of counterproductive or even insane regulations, so they build up into a choking plaque over time.
anjel•32m ago
https://ballotpedia.org/Federal_agency_rules_repealed_under_...

You can argue that is not effective enough perhaps, but the mechanism itself exists.

baggy_trough•23m ago
It needs to be much stronger than the ability to pass new regulations, but it's much weaker instead.
alistairSH•10m ago
Is that really true?

An agency can remove a regulation it created. Congress (via the linked law) can also remove a regulation. Congress can also create regulations via legislation (though they typically don't go to that level of detail).

And we have to remember, at one point, every regulation that exists was created to solve a problem / prevent a harm. The cost of removing that regulation prematurely is reintroducing that problem / harm.

hangsi•11m ago
There is a mechanism for this, internationally usually named some variant of a Law Commission [0]. The idea is to look for laws that are technically in effect but can rarely or never be applied. For example, the UK Law Commission boasts a repeal of 3000+ acts in its time [1], such as repealing rules for conducting slave trades that were made obsolete in the 1800s but not repealed at the time.

In addition to the sibling comment's mention of the Congressional Review Act for agency oversight, there is a US Office of the Law Revision Counsel [2]. It has an official website [3] which is beautifully old-fashioned, but looks to be purely a resource for accessing the letter of the law and doesn't recount its volume of repeals in the same way.

None of this matters if the insane or counterproductive regulations are deliberate and desirable for the current lawmakers, of course.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_commission [1] https://lawcom.gov.uk/repeals/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_the_Law_Revision_Cou... [3] https://uscode.house.gov/

thedudeabides5•44m ago
isn't the worst case it goes into the engine and it explodes/burns?
trenchpilgrim•38m ago
No, because the plane is designed to safely fly without an engine. They test the engines by shooting turkeys from the grocery store into them while they run.
bdangubic•34m ago
without working one working engine - sure. with serious structural damage - perhaps not so much
trenchpilgrim•31m ago
Yes, with serious structural damage. It's part of certification process for the engine: https://youtu.be/iBqWS1hil18
cbm-vic-20•4m ago
As god as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly. Through jet engines.
astroflection•1h ago
https://windbornesystems.com/faq#airplanes

https://windbornesystems.com/blog/ua-1093

filenox•1h ago
Context:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/mystery-object-hits-united-airline...

https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/us-news/injured-...

amelius•1h ago
Glad it wasn't this guy:

https://www.redbull.com/int-en/vincent-reffet-and-yves-rossy...

davidkwast•1h ago
LOL
Gravityloss•1h ago
Who would have believed, what was suspected of being a mysterious malevolence coming from outer space, was just a quaint weather balloon all along!

Somehow that rings some faint bell but can't quite put my finger on it...

bombcar•1h ago
It's probably a decorated bell, some form of art bell ...
testplzignore•8m ago
Give me... sugar. More. More.
gnabgib•1h ago
Discussions

(399 points, 2 days ago, 222 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45636285

(35 points, 2 days ago, 55 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45633191

Related: It was a weather balloon, not space debris, that struck a United Airlines plane (12 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45652120

vincefutr23•1h ago
The second photo ..

https://windbornesystems.com/mission

thorsson12•56m ago
It is surprising that weather balloons don't have ADS-B out (or did this ballon have that and something about the system didn't work?). If it did work, ADS-B would have made this collision very avoidable.
nine_k•50m ago
What are the power requirements of ADS-B? How much more battery would the balloon have to lift?
yabones•43m ago
Even a radar reflector would have helped a lot. ADS-B is off-limits for balloons, ultralights, hang-gliders, etc, and it seems like now that radio beacons can be manufactured very cheap & low power all those non-commercial aerial vehicles should be equipped.
imglorp•23m ago
Off limits? What's the reason? Why not ADS-B everything in the air and let the computers sort it out?
alistairSH•8m ago
It's not off-limits. But, it's not required (for most balloons, ULs, etc). And due to cost and/or weight, people don't always use it when it's not mandatory.
Jtsummers•5m ago
It's not off limits in the regulatory sense. Balloons are generally exempted due to their size and power constraints. Per the submission, the balloon weighs 2.4 lbs at launch. That doesn't give them much room to add a transponder and battery for ADS-B while staying within the target weight limit.
anjel•27m ago
Google's late great balloon project wasn't about weather but it did regularly show up on ADS-B
mrdoornbos•54m ago
THIS is how you react to an incident. Bravo to this company.
rocmcd•51m ago
What I don't get is how did the pilots not see it? Are they that hard to see, or was vision obscured? The balloon in the attached picture looks pretty large.
dcrazy•48m ago
The actual part they impacted seems rather small. It’s basically a 2lb sandbag with a solar panel stuck to it.
trothamel•44m ago
I believe it was night out, so you wouldn't really have any light to illuminate it externally.
fnord77•41m ago
looks like the window frame took the brunt of the hit.

wonder if things would have been different if it hit the center of the window

givemeethekeys•38m ago
What changes does one make to a balloon to minimize time spent between specific altitudes?
trenchpilgrim•37m ago
The balloon has a sand ballast that it can release sand from to descend.
Jtsummers•30m ago
Releasing sand will cause it to ascend, not descend. Balloons descend by reducing lift, which means releasing gas or allowing the balloon to burst and releasing a parachute (for a controlled descent, if you don't care about control, just let the balloon burst).
dlcarrier•36m ago
> We have been coordinating with the FAA for the entire history of the company and file NOTAMs (aviation alerts) for every balloon we launch.

At this point, I'm pretty confident that NOTAMs exist as a way relegate all liability to pilots. Really it's 14 CFR 91.103, which opens with "Each pilot in command shall, before beginning a flight, become familiar with all available information concerning that flight", that allows NOTAMS to transfer liability.

Theoretically CFRs are limited to powers specifically authorized by congress, but in practice, they are full of overreach that is only limited when it becomes case law, but the FAA is so powerful that it can effectively shut down any organization trying to dispute them in federal courts, so there isn't really any case law limiting the scope of their CFRs.

imglorp•18m ago
NOTAM system is archaic and basically useless for this kind of thing. It's a blob of text which will not be specific, memorable, and actionable for an airline pilot, who is on their jetway at FL036 -- an altitude and speed where "see and avoid" doesn't really apply for a bunch of reasons -- and depending on ATC to route them around hazards.

https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/31058/are-weath...

There REALLY needs to be a unified ATC system that incorporates NOTAMS, traffic, and live position of whatever unmanned stuff is moving around. We have most of the tech deployed already. We have to integrate it.

thomascountz•29m ago
OT, but the response from Windborne and its CEO makes me think it would be a great place to work.
ndneighbor•8m ago
The unfortunate irony is not lost on me that Windbourne's H1 is "record breaking Weather Balloons".

I don't think any company would want this record. I am very glad the pilot and the souls on board are safe.

elAhmo•5m ago
I wonder how much damage to the society should Musk do before people stop posting links to Twitter.

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