It sucks right now and will probably suck through 2027.
By 2028 or so we'll have a 50% drop in price-per-storage for these components.
Indeed it has, but many of those it replaced did not necessarily get moved to better positions if they were moved at all. The industrial revolution was great if you were young and had little to no responsibilities. Your average middle aged farmer with a large family to feed faced poverty or near poverty and those who were able to move to the cities faced worse labour conditions. People on here love talking about the winners while conveniently ignoring the loser side.
And that's not even mentioning the skilling up issue to which older workers are more vulnerable. Who will fund the nation wide skill up costs for them?
What worries me about AI is how it's not obvious which new jobs it may create. Younger farm workers and children of farmers could just move and work in factories, where the employers mostly took care of their training. I can't see such opportunities here. I believe whole world needs either UBI, or governments paying for jobs that previously weren't seen worth paying for. Otherwise the economy will collapse due to mass unemployment and resulting lack of demand.
Do you mean relative to six months ago, or now? Because a lot of the prices have already more than doubled.
(I’m upset because the computer I’ve been planning to build, which three months ago would have come to around ₹90,000, is now up to ₹1,20,000 and climbing week by week, half due to price increases on the same part, half due to forced substitutions on RAM since the cheaper 32GB 6400MT/s DDR5 sticks are completely unavailable. And looking into laptops, for the first time ever I’m seeing manufacturet SODIMM or SSD upgrades being cheaper than aftermarket.)
Temporarily thanks to old stock.
Per the op:
> and the ongoing DRAM shortage is proof of this, with memory kits costing more than double what they did just a few months ago.
> While enterprise-grade QLC SSDs would entirely power this pivot, Sandisk has already raised NAND prices by 50%, according to another DigiTimes report, after initially warning of a 10% increase two months ago.
So you're basically saying prices may return to normal in two years, and that's somehow a good thing compared to them not being inflated in the first place?
There is also encryption at rest.
Which costs more in compute than simply throwing the drive in a shredder
Can still take hours per drive though, which is why a lot of people skip it.
Redundant data at least opens the possibility that the drive could deduplicate.
This puts a fair amount of trust and in the drive’s ability to really delete the old key.
No, this wasn't the case. While there were never comprehensive studies various tech media purchased these cards to run testing and found that, other than scammers, they all performed to expectation.
Electricity is a moving part btw, electronic components do wear and tear
Even if it say, halved the life span of the chips, that is still far longer than what most people would ever use them for.
GPUs? No way. The datacenter cards don't even have video output ports, and I think the chips destined for AI / ML training also have everything video/render related removed from the silicon, makes for more yield.
And the other way around, using (cheap) consumer GPUs in servers, I think at least NVDA tries to prevent that with driver-based DRM, so there won't be any flooding coming from there either.
How does that work, doesn't QLC have less write endurance?
I think it's the higher density that makes it better for cold storage, which generally has infrequent access, and more reads than writes.
Hence the QLC's endurance being "sufficient for cold storage".
Enterprise SSDs are not expensive only because they have better flash chips, but they have much more of them.
A top of the line write oriented SSD comes with 4-7x more capacity than what it says on the tin, but that extra capacity is used for cell replacement rather than capacity itself.
Mixed use comes with 2-4x overprovisioning, and read oriented is around 2x IIRC.
But none of them is paying for it.
https://x.com/jukanlosreve/status/1988505115339436423
Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year's 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year.. SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix's NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron's situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture.
Micron has a new US fab coming online in 2027, which should improve supply.DRAM price fixing scandal: 1998-2002, 2016-2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal
I wonder if history isn’t repeating itself. AOL CDs had pretty much jumped the shark by 2000.
Further - and most concerning - is the pollution of the supply chain with refurbished/recertified stock being sold and marketed as "new".
One example:
https://kozubik.com/items/MaestroTechnology/
I strongly advise buyers to stick with trusted suppliers, avoid Amazon/ebay channels, and carefully vet your incoming stock with SMART tools to ensure you receive what you think you are ... especially for SSD parts.
A lot of abuse came to light during the launch and initial mining of the (ridiculous) Chiacoin[1] during which Chia miners would burn through SSDs to within a hair of their usable life, reset their SMART stats, and sell them as new on Amazon or ebay.
As can be seen in my above comment, larger distributors like "Maestro Technologies" have their stock polluted with parts like this and I find it very unlikely that they are not aware of the status of these parts they are selling as new.
You have to actually examine the real bits on the drive. Resellers don't want to take the time to actually zero a drive, they usually just nuke the partition table.
You also need to physically examine the drive. Corroded fingerprints on the PCB, wear on the port contacts, scratches from mounting rails, etc.
That's how it found out that the last "new" drive I bought on Amazon was actually a used Backblaze drive. It contained terabytes of customer data, and a shit ton of cleartext files. SMART, of course, reported it was a brand new drive with zero hours. Cleartext logs on the drive showed many thousands of hours of runtime.
Physical examination is the only reliable method.
This sounds like it could be a big problem for Backblaze customers, and consequently for Backblaze.
Can you alert the Backblaze CEO about their insufficiently-decommissioned drives leaking out like this?
Backblaze customers also need to know, but I would give Backblaze the first shot at figuring out how to notify, whom, of what.
For drives that implement an internal encryption key, it's faster (instantaneous) to reset the encryption key. It won't give you a zeroed drive, but one filled with garbage.
> It contained terabytes of customer data, and a shit ton of cleartext files.
This is also more efficient in the happy path since then no computation is needed to decode the data. It can be DMA'd straight from the drive to the network adapter with super low CPU utilisation even for Gbps of network traffic.
One has to wonder how many times you can deliberately fein incompetence until it's clear it's on purpose.
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/backblaze-mis...
Assuming this is true, I find it weird/surprising that Backblaze doesn't at least zero their drives before disposing of them? I have to do that at my work, and at least by policy I could lose my job if I skipped doing it.
If our legal team finds out about this, we are never going to be allowed to use Backblaze lol.
Unless you're super, duper sure this is true ... you might want to post your evidence, rather than your conclusion. Any misinformation these days gets amplified even faster and bigger than it did just 1-3 years ago, especially via ChatGPT and Gemini.
Equally unlikely is why a storage provider would use anything OTHER than an array for any of their drives. Again, tossing security aside, it is not a viable way to store data on one filesystem. That drive could die at any time and lose all the data. So it makes no sense to store it that way.
What is the best utility for doing this?
I wouldn't shop there at all. It's a literal scam market. Allegedly.
But why ? They are the good ones. TEMU and Shein bad. /s
* HDDs
* SSDs
* DRAM
* GPUs, obviously
* Power to hook up to our datacenters
Anything I'm missing? What a crazy world we're living in.
Much of the world experiences fresh water scarcity, so it's not the best ethics to divert this resource from people in need to tech of uncertain value.
Check out the impact xAI is having on environment and health in Memphis if you want to go further down the rabbit hole.
Yes, the water isn't destroyed, instead joining the water cycle. But drinkable water is scarce in a lot of places already.
- Air conditioners
- generators
- Racks/Cages
- fire supression
- Concrete, Steel, power lines
etc
But by the same measure, the Great Egyptian pyramids would have been a huge boom for work even if the final product didn't achieve much for most people.
Downstream of that, AI is effectively also responsible for the current generation of game consoles never declining in price.
Because game consoles are fixed platforms that continue to be manufactured over 5+ years, normally the most expensive parts in the system (the CPU and GPU) would gradually get cheaper to manufacture [and in turn, cheaper to buy] over the course of the console's lifetime—which was often passed onto the consumer in the form of the console's MSRP gradually decreasing. Either the process node for the console's silicon design would stay fixed, and demand for this process node would gradually decrease as larger fab customers move on to newer nodes, decreasing the (effectively auction-based) pricing for fab time on the older node; or the console manufacturer['s silicon vendor] would put their silicon design through a process-shrink, and so, while still paying top dollar for use of the fab's newest node, would be getting more chips per wafer out of that, and again could charge less.
But instead, what we've seen since the start of the AI boom is that there's no longer any price-reduced timeslots to be sold to manufacture the low-BOM parts for these price-sensitive console-maker customers. Instead, both Nvidia and AMD are now getting such high value out of even the older nodes, that 1. the fabs know they can squeeze them, charging full price for those slots as well; and 2. both Nvidia and AMD, in their roles as silicon vendors to the console makers, haven't been able to justify using (very much of) the time they're paying so much for to fab low-BOM-cost parts to fulfill their pre-existing outstanding purchase orders, when they could instead be fulfilling much-higher-margin new POs from the hyperscalers.
Thus every console of the ninth generation (PS5, Xbox Series, Switch) still selling for their launch price (with no help from process shrinks); thus none of these consoles having been able to be produced in excess of demand to the point that supply-and-demand ever drove retail prices below MSRP; and thus the only tenth-gen console so far, the Switch 2, taking ~4 years longer than anticipated to release†.
---
† Nintendo were very likely waiting for Nvidia to run off enough of the Tegra T239 with a sufficiently low passed-on fab cost, for Nintendo to both 1. be able to build a backstock and non-run-dry pipeline of Switch 2s, and 2. be able to be positive-margin on charging the same price as the Switch 1 for them. They waited four years, and neither thing ever happened; so they eventually just gave up and priced the Switch 2 higher, and also built out an entirely novel D2C + online-marketplace-partner distribution pipeline so they could ration the tiny initial supply of units they had been able to build with the chips Nvidia had supplied them so far.
Though, that being said, Nintendo actually got a double whammy here. They were also waiting for fast NAND to come down in price, so that they could have physical game cards manufactured for a trivial BOM price while still enabling the "direct GPU disk-streamed assets" pipeline that games of the last generation had begun relying on. Obviously, as today's article points out, that hasn't been happening either! Thus game key cards; thus SD Express cards only beginning to trickle out, with no sizes above 128GiB available at the Switch 2's launch time; and thus those SD Express cards being ridiculously priced for their capacity compared to equivalent transfer-speed + die-size NAND (as seen in e.g. low-profile/flush-mount flash drives.)
Combine that with a huge GPU boom and you have the setup for production issues.
This is also the first generation where prices have gone up IIRC.
The main cure is to build more fabs but that's hard too and they're not in a rush to ruin their own margins by scaling up too fast in the face of an uncertain future.
Might be for higher-end chips like GPUs, but for smaller ones like microcontrollers it was very much COVID that threw a huge wrench in the gears.
Things are closer to normal now, but the toilet paper effect hit the electronics supply chain hard during COVID. People resorted to buying dev boards just to desolder the microcontroller on it to use in their commercial product, and similar desperate moves. With lead time measured in many months to years even when the factories are operational, sudden hoarding is not what you want.
The game console thing is also related to monetary inflation--the price of everything just keeps jumping.
Every tech startup circa 2023 doesn't do anything without smearing AI all over their front page.
* Trust that what we are watching or reading is human-sourced and real
* Time for real creators' unique voices to remain unique
* Hope for society's future
Maybe in 3-5 years there will be a fantastic time to upgrade again, after AI bubble has burst and slightly used stuff gets dumped from data centers to online marketplaces.
Subscription prices for claude code et. al? No idea.
It might be that more than $30 a month is too much and people stop using it. However, I suspect it would end up a fair bit higher than many would think. If you are a 'whale' (to use the gambling term) then there is a good chance that they could charge in the hundreds of dollars.
Maybe it become a wealth divide between those that can afford it and those who cannot. In equality yet again. Then the echos of Dune, the 'Butlerian jihad' and ‘Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a man’s mind' will start to come up.
I can find vague mentions of "medical" uses for low background steel, and one specific claim that it's used to shield some rooms or large devices for measuring how much radiation is coming off a person's body. That's pretty niche.
To this day Kazakhstan pays out monthly monetary compensations to people whose health was negatively affected by the nuclear tests on the Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon. Several people I know personally receive these compensations.
https://egov.kz/cms/en/news/nuclear_tests
https://egov.kz/cms/en/services/family_support/pass035_mtszn
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/8/29/a-message-from-...
That certainly is a take.
Pretend every country with lots of nukes instead had no more than 100 warheads at a time. Would the world be much different? Would the average person be better off in a noticeable way?
Would it make a big difference if we never had hydrogen bombs? Note that we already had them in the early 50s. Everything since then was about increasing the quantity and refining designs, no meaningful size increases.
That's not true I've seen loads of amusing videos on Instagram.
Soon we'll see many "AI" product that analyses network storage to identify files that could be deleted because they're the nth copy of some random report that was never published.
Sometimes, I think government supply control isn't that much of a bad thing. That way, the government could force the availability of goods for the common market as well and not just for the really big dogs flush with ample VC money to burn who can pay any price.
[1] For the uninitiated: a cryptocurrency where the limiting factor wasn't CPU, RAM or GPU compute resource, but storage - in 2021, there was so much craze around it that HDD and SSD prices exploded, and after the bubble collapsed a lot of heavily abused drives flooded the markets.
[1] https://www.techpowerup.com/281979/chia-farming-already-caus...
Maybe another round of cheap Aerons at least :)
Now the sector has invented a new hype machine and hardware prices are all fucked again.
Is this going to happen every few years? The industry hypes up some nonsense that skyrockets all the hardware prices and causes everything to be on backorder, just to dump it and go to the next one?
mock-possum•2mo ago
I sleep
> so hyperscalers are now switching to QLC NAND-based SSDs to avoid these backorders … This could lead to SSD prices rising worldwide
Real shit
BoredPositron•2mo ago
ipsum2•2mo ago
BoredPositron•2mo ago
Incipient•2mo ago
(apple doesn't use hdds so not talking about that here).
BoredPositron•2mo ago
appointment•2mo ago
jeroenhd•2mo ago
Apple doesn't make their own NAND, just like they don't make their own screens. They did write their own NAND controller and stuck it into their CPUs, but the flash memory that actually stores data doesn't come directly from their factories.
BoredPositron•2mo ago
Incipient•2mo ago
On the dram side, because that's what I saw recently, sk hynix is down to TWO WEEKS of inventory: https://wccftech.com/sk-hynix-ddr5-inventory-down-to-just-2-...
I'd be curious what evidence there is to support its purely an end-product manufacturing shortage?
BoredPositron•2mo ago
esseph•2mo ago
Coming back, SK Hynix announced at its earnings call that it has fully booked its DRAM and NAND capacity through 2026, with HBM4 set to ship by the end of 2025."
microtherion•2mo ago
siva7•2mo ago
jrvarela56•2mo ago
HackerNewt-doms•2mo ago
Apple will almost certainly introduce the same approach for the budget MacBook as well.