> The asteroid has now flown out of view of Earth’s telescope, meaning astronomers thought there was no chance of gathering more information about its trajectory until it returns to view in 2028, which may not be enough time to plan and launch a deflection mission.
> But now it seems the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will have a brief glimpse at 2024 YR4 in February 2026, which will represent the last good chance to decide on a deflection mission
If it's a concern, wouldn't it make sense to start planning a launch now? The worst case scenario is that we spend a few million dollars testing things in case we have to deflect something from the Earth, which sounds pretty dang cheap to me. Load it up with both deflection tech & with scientific tech, and you still get an asteroid fly-by even if the deflection isn't necessary. (And heck, maybe we can deflect it anyway, even further from the moon, to test things regardless.)
JonChesterfield•2mo ago
Speculative development would be a problem in the quarterly account filing. Good idea on longer horizons yes.
From what I've read, it's not that much of a concern yet. The immediate threat would be to orbital infrastructure, with debris burning up in the atmosphere. It would not change the trajectory of the moon. So, they can wait to get more info. If, by very small chance, 2024 YR impacted Earth in 2032, it would be localized disaster with enough time to move people out of the area of impact.
That being said, it's a good reason to work on asteroid deflection tech! Probably shouldn't waste it.
pavel_lishin•2mo ago
> But now it seems the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will have a brief glimpse at 2024 YR4 in February 2026, which will represent the last good chance to decide on a deflection mission
If it's a concern, wouldn't it make sense to start planning a launch now? The worst case scenario is that we spend a few million dollars testing things in case we have to deflect something from the Earth, which sounds pretty dang cheap to me. Load it up with both deflection tech & with scientific tech, and you still get an asteroid fly-by even if the deflection isn't necessary. (And heck, maybe we can deflect it anyway, even further from the moon, to test things regardless.)
JonChesterfield•2mo ago
tracker1•2mo ago
washedup•2mo ago
washedup•2mo ago
That being said, it's a good reason to work on asteroid deflection tech! Probably shouldn't waste it.